Before each Ohio State game, Eleven Warriors catches up with a media member who covers the opposing team to get his or her perspective on the Buckeyes' upcoming opponent.
#5 Indiana
Hoosiers
There will likely be a little more enthusiasm than usual when it comes to reading about Indiana this year, you'd imagine.
The Hoosiers are 10-0 for the first time in school history and are playing their first-ever top-five matchup as a program against Ohio State on Saturday. Joining us is longtime guest Zach Osterman, who covers Indiana for the Indianapolis Star. We discussed the Hoosiers' historical year, their CFP chances, Curt Cignetti and more.
I can’t remember an Indiana vs. Ohio State game having more juice than this one. Let’s start at the beginning. Since the day Curt Cignetti got hired until now, how wild of a ride has it been covering a team that has already put together the best season in program history?
Zach Osterman: From Indiana’s perspective I’m not sure there’s ever been a more important regular-season game in its history. If we’re rewinding, there was undoubtedly optimism at the start of this season, both from fans and from neutral observers. I picked Indiana to win eight games, for example, and I don’t think I was alone there. It wasn’t until we started tracking the nature of the wins (UCLA, Northwestern to an extent, Nebraska) that the scope of what IU might be capable of came into firmer focus. That’s what was unexpected, and what has obviously lent this season a historic feel.
From an outside perspective, Cignetti is normally a quote machine and is never afraid to pull out a fun one-liner. Yet he seems a little more reserved this week. What’s the mood like around Bloomington and the team right now heading into Saturday?
Osterman: I don’t think he’s been any different this week. He has a dry sense of humor that lends itself to a handful of quotable moments, but like any coach I think most of the memorable ones come outside the season, when there’s no game to worry about and everything’s a little more open-ended. Obviously things are a little different coming off the bye week but I don’t think Cignetti or his players have seemed very different to the way they’ve approached every game this year. If any of these was going to overwhelm IU I think it would have by now.
Cignetti just signed a hefty eight-year extension. On the surface there’s no question it seems completely warranted to avoid any potential poachers, but should there be any hesitation on dishing out a contract this lofty considering his age and limited sample size in Bloomington?
Osterman: I don’t think age is so much the issue. I do understand people who point to Tom Allen’s extension after the 2020 season and the way it backfired. But one, I think Cignetti has a stronger track record to point to, 14 winning seasons in 14 years, that suggests this is more than just a brief burst of success. And I don’t think Indiana thinks it’s paying for 10-0 every year, so much as the idea of a coach with a proven method for achieving success that can clearly overlay it onto the Big Ten. If the Hoosiers win eight games next year it won’t make the contract a burden. Indiana wants (and frankly needs) to show it can raise its competitive baseline in football, and Cignetti has a compelling argument for being capable of that.
If Indiana loses this game, there’s already a national talking point that the Hoosiers should be left out of the CFP in favor of, say, a fifth SEC team that finishes 10-2. Do you agree with that assessment, and how much do you think how the Hoosiers look against the Buckeyes determines their postseason fate?
Osterman: I think it’s difficult to parse that argument. The traditionalist in me says college football still needs to reward some measure of excellence, and jumping a one-loss Big Ten team with what would have to be multiple two-loss SEC teams doesn’t sit right. On the other hand, as an Atlanta native who grew up on SEC football, I know the difficulties of that conference and I’m not at all blind to how IU’s schedule unfolded. My opinions aside, I do think the only outcome that could significantly change the committee’s thinking for the worse, from the Hoosiers’ perspective, would be an ugly loss. A competitive defeat might drop them out of hosting territory, but I think they’d still be in the field with a win over Purdue.
Building on that, do you believe Indiana is an opportunistic team that faced a weak schedule, or do the Hoosiers really have the makeup to be a top-five team in the sport?
Osterman: Top-five is probably subjective enough to be interpreted a lot of ways. But I think Indiana is certainly a Playoff-caliber team, when you combine its raw numbers with its metrics. If the Hoosiers had been running the season the way Pitt or BYU had, two teams that took undefeated seasons further into the calendar than expected, I think Indiana’s profile would be different. It’s been the dominance in areas like margin of victory, scoring numbers, red zone numbers, defensive disruptiveness, etc., that I think (justifiably) pushes this team into a more prominent position nationally than some other surprise packages in the sport.
Kurtis Rourke has been a revelation for Indiana this season and could arguably be ranked anywhere from No. 1-3 in terms of Big Ten quarterback power rankings this season. What are his biggest strengths as a passer and how crucial will it be for the Hoosiers that Rourke continues to hit the back-shoulder fades against OSU this week?
Osterman: Yeah, it’s fair to say on a team of transfers, he’s been the most important one. There aren’t a ton of throws he can’t make. His deep ball probably isn’t elite, but his short and intermediate throws are excellent, and the Michigan game aside — and that might be relevant this weekend, we’ll see — he’s been really good under pressure. I think in particular, Rourke has been really good at executing the three types of throws this offense leans into: quick-timing stuff like slants and screens, intermediate routes that work the seams and bust up zone coverage, and then those back shoulders you point out. He’ll need the first set to keep Indiana on schedule against Ohio State, but it’s the second and third categories I’m most interested in. This is probably the best defense and certainly the best secondary Indiana’s seen all year. If Rourke can find time and his receivers can run those throws open, IU should be able to move the ball. If not, it’s a problem.
The Hoosiers are top 10 in many statistical defensive categories this season. Are they capable of slowing down this Ohio State offense?
Osterman: A lot of it for me depends on the line of scrimmage. Ohio State’s obviously had some injury issues that have led to personnel issues there. My impression is a lot of that is cleaned up now, but Indiana’s probably got the most disruptive defense in the conference and the Hoosiers do it with a lot of four-man rush. They’ll blitz occasionally but it’s mostly been their front four creating the pressure that’s led to a Big Ten-best 31 sacks and 73 TFLs, as well as some PFF pressure numbers that stack up next to anyone in the country. A lot of how well Indiana does or doesn’t do against Ohio State this weekend is going to come down to whether the Buckeyes force IU to bring extra bodies in the box, or whether Indiana can still create consistent penetration and pressure with its customary four-down looks.
Finally, how do you envision this game going and what is your score prediction?
Osterman: Been turning this one over in my head for a while. On the one hand, I think Indiana’s lack of depth at the quality of the top end of the league probably got a little bit exposed two weeks ago by Michigan. Everyone’s allowed a closer-than-expected game, but that would be my greatest concern coming out of that win. On the other, IU is about as clean and well-coached of a football team as I think I’ve seen in college football this year. They’re very good on both sides of the ball, and they’re coming into this game with an extra week to prepare that Ohio State doesn’t get.
There’s been a lot of talk about pressure on Indiana, and perhaps less so on Ohio State. I think the Buckeyes are fine with a loss this weekend and a win against Michigan, but a loss would still have significant ramifications for the course of their season. I’m not sure I’ve ever covered a more fascinating game.
I’ll throw my cap over the wall: Indiana 31, Ohio State 30. As and when I’m wrong, I’ll accept all receipts returned.
