To win a national championship, Ohio State may have to beat the three betting favorites in what will effectively be three straight road games.
The eighth-seeded Buckeyes will start the College Football Playoff with a first-round home game, but they drew what looks to be a tougher matchup on paper than any of the other Round 1 hosts as they’ll face No. 9 seed Tennessee, who will bring the nation’s eighth-ranked offense and fourth-ranked defense to Columbus.
If the Buckeyes get past the Volunteers, they’ll then make a trip to the West Coast to play a West Coast team, Oregon, the No. 1 seed in the CFP. If Ohio State can win a rematch with the Ducks, it’ll play its semifinal game in the Cotton Bowl in Arlington, Texas, where the Buckeyes could face the home-state Longhorns, who were tied for the betting favorite to win the national championship as of Sunday night on FanDuel. If the Buckeyes make it all the way to the national championship game in Atlanta, Georgia, they could face another team in its own backyard in No. 2 seed Georgia – the other betting favorite to win it all as of Sunday night.
While Ohio State is still viewed as one of the more likely teams to hoist the CFP National Championship Trophy, sitting fourth on the odds board out of the 12-team field, the selection committee certainly didn’t do the Buckeyes any favors with their draw. But Ryan Day knows he’s in no position to complain about that.
After all, Ohio State was in position to be either the No. 1 seed or the No. 5 seed – depending on whether it won or lost the Big Ten Championship Game – before it lost its regular-season finale to Michigan. The Buckeyes have no one to blame but themselves for losing to an unranked opponent at home, so all they can do now is make the best of the draw they’ve been given.
“At this point, it's like, this is what it is. We got a home game, we're playing Tennessee, and that's it, that's what we’ve got,” Day said. “The one thing about this that I do like is the fact that you control your own destiny. We didn't have an opportunity to play in that game, we lost our last one. So now here's the situation that we have, now we’ve gotta go make the best of it.”
The Buckeyes weren’t surprised by their draw. Ohio State was projected to be the No. 8 seed going into conference championship weekend, and Day said the Buckeyes actually began preparing for the possibility of playing Tennessee last week knowing they would likely play the Volunteers if they didn’t move up the bracket.
That initial preparation was enough for Day to know the Buckeyes need to keep all of their focus on Tennessee rather than on who they could play in subsequent rounds. But Day says Ohio State is entering the CFP with confidence that it is capable of beating anyone despite its disheartening performance in The Game two weekends ago.
“We got to win this first game, and then build from there. There's no question. I don't think there's one person in this building that's looking way down the road. Other than the fact that when they look at who we may play down the road, we've played some of these guys already,” Day said, referencing the fact that Ohio State has already played three CFP teams (Oregon, Penn State and Indiana). “So I think there's a bunch of confidence in the fact that, like, ‘OK, we know what these guys are like. We've played them. And we feel good about rematches down the road or playing them this season.
“That being said, though, you got to win this game (against Tennessee). And I've already talked to our guys about that last week. When you're in this style of play, you got to get that first win. You got to get started and build some momentum into the playoff. So that'll be our focus and making sure we win this game.”
While Day said on Wednesday that his team was still dealing with “a mix of emotions” after losing to its rival for the fourth year in a row, he sensed a great deal of excitement from his team on Sunday now that the Buckeyes know who they’ll be playing in their first CFP game and that they’ll be playing a home game, allowing Ohio State to be one of the first four teams ever to host a game in the 12-team CFP along with Texas, Penn State and Notre Dame.
“That's a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity up until this point. I mean, this has never happened before,” Day said of hosting a playoff game at Ohio Stadium. “So I think it's exciting. I think it's exciting for our players. I think it's exciting for our coaches and staff. It's exciting for our fans to be part of something that's never really been done before. And also having a night game in the Horseshoe, and who knows what the weather will be, it'll be great. It'll be electric. And we're all excited about it.”
Day’s message on Selection Sunday was similar to the one he’s shared on that same day each of the last three years. After losing to Michigan, Day wants his team to play freely and with confidence in the CFP rather than playing not to lose. Given that Ohio State is just 1-2 in postseason games in the last three years, most recently suffering a 14-3 loss to Missouri in last year’s Cotton Bowl, Day’s words won’t mean much if the Buckeyes don’t back them up with wins – and if they don’t, Day could very well find himself looking for a new job.
After taking some time this past week to digest what happened in The Game, though, Day says the Buckeyes have now put that loss behind them and turned their attention to trying to win in the playoff.
“We’ve moved on from that,” Day said. “It didn't go well. Did people press? I mean, you can say yes or no on that, but we don't want that anymore. We wanna make sure that when we're playing in this game, we're playing free, we're playing with our focus on winning the game and not worrying about the consequences. And so that's what we're gonna do in this game.”
“This would be an unbelievable accomplishment to go on a run here and go win the whole thing. And you're four games away. It's real, it's on the table.”– Ryan Day on the goal of winning the College Football Playoff
Because the Buckeyes failed to achieve their first two major goals, the 2024 Ohio State football season will be largely viewed as a failure if they don’t win the national championship. Ohio State faces the daunting task of having to beat four straight top-tier opponents, the last three of whom could have home-crowd advantages, if it’s going to achieve that goal.
But unlike in the four-team playoff era, when Ohio State’s two regular-season losses would have sent it to a non-playoff bowl game, the Buckeyes still have an opportunity to compete for a championship. So they’re relishing that opportunity and striving to take full advantage of it.
“Everybody's journey is different to get to this point right now. We're here, and now we gotta go play,” Day said. “There's been twists and turns and ups and downs, but here we are. And so I think when you think about the opportunity that our team has to go do something like this, I mean, this would be an unbelievable accomplishment to go on a run here and go win the whole thing. And you're four games away. It's real, it's on the table. As much as the last week hurt, it hurt, but here we are now. And so all the focus has gotta go on Tennessee and winning this first one.”
