It's not often in the era of NIL, transfer portal cacophony and NFL draft ambitions that a four-year story centered around one team in one game can be told. But that's where Ohio State will find itself on Monday.
#7 Notre Dame
Fighting Irish
Shots at redemption are rare in life. Ohio State's recruiting class of 2021, touted as one of the best in team history at the time, instead suffered as much heartbreak as any before it in its first 3.75 seasons. Four straight losses to Michigan brought boatloads of pain, regret and even toxicity to the doorstep of those players and head coach Ryan Day.
The 2023 Buckeyes' national championship ambitions were thwarted by a six-point road loss to their rivals and eventual national champions last year. After another Wolverine defeat in 2022, OSU lost to Georgia in the CFP semis – at the very same stadium where Ohio State will play Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff national championship game – on a last-second field goal miss as the clock paid homage by striking midnight. The Bulldogs thrashed TCU in the ensuing national title game, leaving many to wonder what could have been.
This year's three-point loss as three-score favorites against Michigan was the most shocking yet for Ohio State. But it brought out a ferocity from a Buckeye squad that scooped them up from the mat and saw them embark on a three-game run with demolitions of No. 9 Tennessee and No. 1 Oregon predating a magical 28-14 victory over No. 5 Texas.
Now the seniors of that 2021 class, all of whom came back to get some hardware at last, have a chance at not just redemption but Buckeye canonization. All that remains is No. 7 Notre Dame, itself feeling like a team of destiny after losing to Northern Illinois earlier this season. The Fighting Irish have ridden a 13-game winning streak to the top since.
Buried beneath piles of pomp and circumstance and the four-year arc of those seniors is still 60 minutes of football, ultimately, even if legend status lies on the other side. The dominance of Ohio State's run defense and gains made on the offensive side of the football will be tested, and if they pass, the story of the 2021 class can be written with a happy ending.
"There will be time to tell the story after the season, but the only way the story is told is if we win," Day said. "That's the sobering message to our team. So we need to understand that."
The Headlines
Ground the Ground Game
Here's a quick statistical discrepancy to sum up Notre Dame's offense: The Fighting Irish are fourth nationally in yards per carry (5.8) but 84th in yards per pass attempt (7.1). The latter should face a mismatch with Ohio State's pass defense, which is No. 7 in yards allowed per pass attempt at 5.9 and No. 3 in sacks per game (3.4).
Running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price make for a monstrous tandem, both averaging 6.3 yards per carry or better, but it's the involvement of quarterback Riley Leonard in the Fighting Irish's ground attack that adds another layer the Buckeyes will have to defend. Leonard has 167 carries for 866 yards and 16 touchdowns this year, running the rock 11.1 times per game.
“It adds a whole nother dimension to the game,” Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles said. “Obviously, when you have a quarterback running the ball, it adds an extra hat in the box or an extra blocker. So it kinda messes with the defense sometimes. Sometimes you might have to bring an extra hat into the box to match that. So it can be a little tricky sometimes.”
The good news for Ohio State is that it features one of the best run defenses in college football. The Buckeyes are the No. 3 total ground stoppers (89.9 rush yards allowed per game) and No. 2 in their efficiency also (2.7 yards allowed per carry). They've been on another echelon during their CFP run, holding Oregon to -23 rushing yards on 28 carries and Texas to 58 rushing yards on 29 attempts.
Defensive tackles Ty Hamilton and Tyleik Williams have set a new line of scrimmage while defensive ends Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau have only further cemented their status as elite run defenders, but Ohio State's linebacker play has been excellent this postseason as well. Cody Simon earned Rose Bowl Defensive Player of the Game honors for an 11-tackle, three-tackle-for-loss, two-sack and one-PBU performance vs. the Ducks and Styles followed with a nine-tackle, three-TFL outing vs. the Longhorns, even if he was burnt on a wheel route for Texas' first touchdown.
Linebacker Arvell Reese could also see some run in 4-3 packages with Notre Dame opting for plenty of multi-tight end packages.
One Last Battle of Top-Tier Defenses
| Ohio State | Pos | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| OFFENSE | ||
| WILL HOWARD | QB | RILEY LEONARD |
| TREVEYON HENDERSON | RB | JEREMIYAH LOVE |
| JEREMIAH SMITH | WR | BEAUX COLLINS |
| CARNELL TATE | WR | JORDAN FAISON |
| EMEKA EGBUKA | WR | JADEN GREATHOUSE |
| GEE SCOTT JR. | TE | MITCHELL EVANS |
| DONOVAN JACKSON | LT | CHARLES JAGUSAH |
| AUSTIN SIEREVELD | LG | BILLY SCHRAUTH |
| CARSON HINZMAN | C | PAT COOGAN |
| TEGRA TSHABOLA | RG | ROCCO SPINDLER |
| JOSH FRYAR | RT | AAMIL WAGNER |
| DEFENSE | ||
| JT TUIMOLOAU | DE | RJ OBEN |
| TYLEIK WILLIAMS | DT | GABRIEL RUBIO |
| TY HAMILTON | DT | HOWARD CROSS III |
| JACK SAWYER | DE | JOSHUA BURNHAM |
| SONNY STYLES | WLB | JACK KISER |
| CODY SIMON | MLB | DRAYK BOWEN |
| JORDAN HANCOCK | NB | JORDAN CLARK |
| DENZEL BURKE | CB | LEONARD MOORE |
| DAVISON IGBINOSUN | CB | CHRISTIAN GRAY |
| CALEB DOWNS | FS | XAVIER WATTS |
| LATHAN RANSOM | SS | ADON SHULER |
Ohio State and Texas are arguably the two best defenses in college football, but Notre Dame is in that conversationm too.
The Fighting Irish trail only the Buckeyes in scoring defense, surrendering just 14.3 points per game. Their total defense is ninth where Ohio State's is first, giving up 298.3 yards per contest.
It starts with their secondary. Notre Dame is the nation's No. 3 pass defense in yards allowed per attempt at just 5.8. Its scheme involves a heavy dose of man coverage looks, particularly Cover 1, which it runs at a rate higher than any other team in the country per Pro Football Focus. Some zone will get mixed in, but the Fighting Irish don't plan on abandoning their bread and butter against the Buckeyes.
"We've got to dance with the date that got us here," Notre Dame defensive coordinator Al Golden said on Saturday. "At the end of the day, it is who we are. It's part of our DNA. We understand the challenge, but we also can't abort and change course radically at this stage."
Cornerbacks Leonard Moore and Christian Gray will match up on the outside, combining for five interceptions with two pick-sixes and 19 pass breakups in 2024. Moore has a team-high 10 of those. He also gives up just 5.2 yards per target, per PFF.
Consensus All-American safety Xavier Watts is the ideal centerfielder for a Cover 1 scheme. Linebacker Jack Kiser has also been a force, with a team-high 85 tackles, four tackles for loss, two sacks, two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries.
Day's Chance at Coronation
With Nick Saban's retirement and Jim Harbaugh's hop to the NFL, only two coaches with a national championship on their résumés (Kirby Smart and Dabo Swinney) remain in college football. A third will be added to the list when Day and Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman battle for a title on Monday.
A mere 50 days ago, a vast number of Ohio State fans and pundits were saying Day's job was on the line in the early stages of the CFP. That's not to grandstand, the very writer of this preview was among them. But now the New Hampshire native can cement himself among the best coaches in the sport.
There will have been plenty of scars along the way. As has been rehashed half a million times at this point, four straight losses to Michigan caught him plenty of ire. Ohio State's been on this same doorstep of a collegiate crown before in Day's tenure. A few controversial calls and a last-minute interception cost a great Buckeye team a shot at a national title in 2019, a wide-left field goal the same in 2022. OSU reached the championship game in 2020 only to be stomped by Alabama.
Redemption and legacy are riding on this game for the first-time head coach Ohio State took a shot on when Urban Meyer retired for the second of three times. All the lessons learned in the six seasons since have led to this moment.
Watch Out for These Guys
Notre Dame S Xavier Watts
Watts is the second-leading tackler on Notre Dame's team despite playing back at the safety position. He has 74 tackles with 2.5 tackles for loss, but more impressive are his six interceptions and nine PBUs. For a secondary replete with great pass defenders, Will Howard will need to identify where Love is lurking on each snap.
Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love
Running back Jeremiyah Love is the centerpiece of Notre Dame's running game. (Credit: Christine Tannous/IndyStar/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
Love is the bellcow among the Fighting Irish's trio of 700-yard rushers, picking up 1,122 yards at a clip of 7.1 yards per carry with 17 touchdowns, tied for the 12th-most rushing scores in college football. Gang-tackling will be advised against his physical running style.
Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith
If Notre Dame truly intends to stick with plenty of man coverage, it could open the door for a massive bounceback game from Smith after Texas held him to just one reception for three yards. The freshman sensation is now up to 71 receptions for 1,227 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2024.
Game Week Talk
“To say somebody going out there and playing man-on-man against Ohio State receivers is something crazy. But we're just ready for the challenge. They say they're not changing their game plan, but we got to go out there and show them the reason why not to play man-on-man.”– Jeremiah Smith on Notre Dame's use of man coverage
There's a reason teams have opted to run much, much more zone coverage against Ohio State than the man-to-man schemes Notre Dame will primarily rely on against the Buckeyes. It's hard for any secondary to match up one-on-one with a wide receiver like Smith, let alone when that receiver is flanked by the likes of Emeka Egbuka and Tate. The freshman has begun talking bolder as his season has rolled on and he's lived up to his massive hype, and he's not afraid to publicly accept the man-to-man challenge.
“Part of what we do is have to have a mentality of being a savage, of being aggressive and being physical and being willing to fight no matter what happened on the last play or what situations in the game. It's an attack mindset on all three phases. That's what we're going to have to do on Monday.”– Marcus Freeman on playing like a “savage”
Physicality and a relentless nature are a big part of Notre Dame's team identity, if that wasn't clear from its run game emphasis and reliance on man coverage. Ohio State right tackle Josh Fryar went so far as to call the Fighting Irish the toughest team in college football.
“The truth is we've played these guys three years in a row – well, this will be our third time in three years. So our guys know who these guys are and have a lot of respect for them and are excited to play in the game. This game has nothing to do with the past and what's gone on. It's all about what's going to happen in this game, and that's what we'll focus on.”– Ryan Day on Ohio State's history against Notre Dame
Another factor playing into Monday's contest is the familiarity both sides have with each other from recent years. Ohio State beat Notre Dame in 2022 and 2023, a 21-10 win the first occasion and a last-second 17-14 victory the second. But Day wasn’t interested in rehashing those past successes ahead of the national championship game, only focusing on this season's iteration of the Fighting Irish.
Get Smart
- Ohio State has a 6-2 all-time record against Notre Dame. The Buckeyes have won their last six consecutive games against the Fighting Irish, with Notre Dame’s last win over Ohio State coming in 1936.
- Ohio State enters the national championship game with a 6-4 all-time record in CFP games.
- Ohio State is making its third College Football Playoff national championship game appearance. The Buckeyes are 1-1 in their previous two appearances, beating Oregon to win the inaugural CFP at the end of the 2024 season but losing to Alabama in the title game to end the 2020 season.
- Ohio State is seeking its ninth national championship in school history while Notre Dame is chasing its 14th.
- This is only Ohio State’s second time ever playing in Atlanta. The Buckeyes suffered a 42-41 loss to Georgia in the College Football Playoff semifinal at the Peach Bowl in 2022.
- Eight Notre Dame players are from Ohio, including starting right tackle Aamil Wagner (Yellow Springs) and tight end Mitchell Evans (Wadsworth). Notre Dame backups from Ohio are running back Gi’Bran Payne (Cincinnati), defensive lineman Brenan Vernon (Mentor), cornerback Karson Hobbs (Cincinnati), safeties Ben Minich (West Chester) and Taebron Bennie-Powell (Cincinnati) and kicker Zac Yoakam (Upper Arlington).
- Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman was an Ohio State linebacker from 2004-08.
- Notre Dame defensive line coach Al Washington was Ohio State’s linebackers coach from 2019-21.
- Ohio State cornerback Lorenzo Styles Jr. was a Notre Dame wide receiver in 2021 and 2022.
- Ohio State tight ends coach Keenan Bailey is a Notre Dame graduate.
How It Plays Out
Line: Ohio State -8.5, O/U 46.5
More Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Coverage
There's a narrow path to victory for Notre Dame whereas Ohio State's feels much wider. The Buckeyes hold a massive edge at wide receiver entering this contest, as their third-leading pass catcher, Carnell Tate (50 receptions for 698 yards and four touchdowns in 2024) clears leading Fighting Irish receiver Jaden Greathouse (36 receptions, 464 yards, two touchdowns) by more than 200 yards.
It's run the ball or bust for the Fighting Irish on Monday. That doesn't bode well against a defense as dominant and balanced as Ohio State's has been in the CFP. If the Notre Dame ground game is contained and the Buckeyes’ receivers can find some wins, it will be scarlet and gray confetti that rains down on the field as midnight approaches on Monday.
All 14 Eleven Warriors staffers have the Buckeyes taking home a national title by multiple scores. Seven of them independently chose either a 31-13 or 31-14 final.
| Eleven Warriors Staff Prediction | ||||
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31 | 13 |
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