Revisiting Bold Predictions Made Ahead of the 2024 Ohio State Football Season

If you've been around the 11W orbit for a while, you know that each year, as part of our Season Preview series, I come up with five predictions for what lies ahead, making a point to not come at you with flaccid prognostications, instead trying to swing for the fences. 

That mission, coupled with my own glaring shortcomings, typically leads to a great opportunity for all of us to laugh at what often look like wild guesses based on the results. 

But as I always say, what's the point of making predictions if you don't go back and check the receipts?! With that, let's see how things shook out. 

PREDICTION: OHIO STATE'S DEFENSE RANKS TOP-10 NATIONALLY IN TACKLES FOR LOSS PER GAME

After the 2023 group proved elite at limiting big plays and ranked No. 2 in scoring defense but didn't really create much havoc, my thought was the 2024 defense, after having another year in Jim Knowles' system and adding Caleb Downs, would take the next step forward and not only limit scoring but really disrupt opposing offenses. For what it's worth, Ohio State hadn't ranked in the top-10 in tackles for loss per game since 2019. 

The 2023 defense ranked just 73rd nationally in TFLs per game, at 5.54 per contest, and I really thought it could make a major jump.

Somewhat to my credit, the 2024 defense did make a notable move, racking up 7.06 TFLs per game - 1.52 more than '23 - and improved all the way to 21st nationally. To reach the top-10, the Buckeyes needed to average 7.39 TFLs, or .33 more per contest. That said, the prediction was top-10 and 21st ain't top-10.

Ohio State did finish 5th in the nation with 113 total TFLs but playing 16 games certainly helped. Individually, JT Tuimoloau cranked out 21.5, Cody Simon 12.5 and Sonny Styles 10.5. Lathan Ransom and Jack Sawyer added 9.0 each. 

Damn, .33 away from starting off on the right foot. 

PREDICTION: OHIO STATE'S DEFENSE RANKS IN THE TOP-10 NATIONALLY IN TOTAL INTERCEPTIONS

Yeah, okay, this one was probably more wishful thinking than being grounded in any kind of actual real world scenario that might unfold. Ohio State hasn't ranked in the top-10 in total interceptions in a single-season since 2016. The Buckeyes did slot 13th in 2019 with 15 picks but other than that, between 2017 and 2023, OSU ranked anywhere from 40th in 2021 to 112th last season. Not exactly INT-U. 

My prediction for 2024 was really based on (1) expecting OSU to play at least 16 games and (2) thinking the improved defensive line would create more pressure allowing an already strong secondary now featuring Caleb Downs to eat. 

As I summarized above, the defense did create more havoc up front with the jump in TFLs per game (while also ranking 27th in fumbles recovered with 9) but interceptions were still hard to come by as Ohio State ranked just 70th nationally, recording 10 in 16 games. Hey, that's better than the seven in 13 games last year but yeah, nowhere near the top-10 that I forecasted. 

Denzel Burke, Downs and Davison Igbinosun all logged two picks apiece while Jordan Hancock, Gabe Powers, Lathan Ransom and Jack Sawyer each snagged one. 

Big, big miss on this one. 

PREDICTION: EMEKA EGBUKA GOES OVER 1,000 FOR THE SEASON, SETS ALL-TIME SCHOOL RECEIVING YARDS RECORD

The first part of this prediction came in right on schedule. I predicted Egbuka would play 16 games and that would help ensure he broke 1,000 yards, which he did during the fourth quarter of the national championship victory over Notre Dame. 

Coming into the season, Egbuka needed 1,042 receiving yards to break Michael Jenkins' school record of 2,898 set back in 2003. Egbuka gave it a hell of a run but his 1,011 yards this season put him at 2,868 for his OSU career, or 31 yards short of setting a new standard. Close but no cigar. 

Egbuka finished the season with just one game over 100 receiving yards (117 vs. Marshall) and a midseason lull in production really made breaking the record tough. A four-game stretch starting October 26 saw him record three catches for 20 yards versus Nebraska, three for 31 at Penn State, one for 10 against Purdue and two for 25 in Wrigley Field versus Northwestern. That's just 86 yards in four games. 

But hey, even if the back half of this prediction didn't come through, the first part did and cheers to Emeka on one hell of a career. Great production, great leadership. 

PREDICTION: JAMES PEOPLES* AND JAYLEN MCCLAIN EMERGE AS TOP OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE TRUE FRESHMEN (*TRUE FRESHMAN NOT NAMED JEREMIAH SMITH)

I don't usually roll with subjective predictions - honestly I can't recall why I felt like I should when I came with this one back in August. 

I think you'd be hard pressed to say James Peoples wasn't the top offensive true freshman (*not named Jeremiah Smith) since he was the only one to really get much action. Peoples saw snaps in eight games, earning 94 snaps in total, but just 13 of those came over the last 11 games as Ohio State was Big Ten and CFP games and thus riding TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins to glory. 

Peoples did show some legit promise, certainly enough to be the No. 2 guy heading into spring ball, as he logged 49 carries for 197 yards (4.0 ypc) with two touchdowns. 

Quarterback Julian Sayin (5-for-12, 84 yards, TD, 2 rushes, 24 yards) saw some action, as did offensive tackle Ian Moore (31 snaps), wide receiver Mylan Graham (15 snaps), and Sam Williams-Dixon had seven carries for 60 yards but Peoples was indeed the top offensive true freshman from an impact standpoint in 2024. 

On defense, I could argue that my Jaylen McClain pick was the second-most impactful defensive true freshman but there's no arguing the No. 1 guy from the 2024 defensive class was Eddrick Houston. The big man improved as the season went along and his versatility to either play inside or outside along the defensive front allowed him to see legit rotational snaps in seven of Ohio State's last eight games. He played double-digit snaps in all four CFP matchups and logged a season-high 27 versus Purdue. For the season, Houston tallied seven tackles and two PBUs, flashing talent Ohio State will for sure lean on more heavily next season. 

PREDICTION: OHIO STATE BEATS MICHIGAN BY AT LEAST 14 POINTS EN ROUTE TO THE NATIONAL TITLE

Ooh boy, so yeah the first part of this prediction was a big miss. I'll just acknowledge that and move on. 

Even though the lunatic fringe might disagree, the ultimate goal is to win the CFP national title and that prediction came through in spades as Ohio State dismantled Tennessee, 42-17, ran Oregon off the field, building a 34-0 head in the first half before coasting to a 41-21 victory, gutted out a 28-14 win over Texas and then easily handled Marcus Freeman's Irish outfit in the natty. 

Of all the predictions I logged, that's the only one I really cared about and how sweet it was to witness the march to redemption by Ryan Day and his determined squad.