The Indiana Hoosiers are in first place.
It's still a bit surreal to see it, but as of this writing, the Crimson and Cream sit above Ohio State and everyone else in the Big Ten East. While the current standings reflect Ohio State's canceled game with Maryland, the Hoosiers' success isn't a fluke.
Tom Allen's squad followed their dramatic opening week defeat of Penn State with double-digit victories over Rutgers, Michigan, and Michigan State. Donning their highest ranking in the AP Poll since 1967, the Hoosiers come to Columbus this weekend in what may well be the Buckeyes' most difficult challenge of the 2020 regular season.
Of course, this is the same program that hasn't knocked off Ohio State since 1987 and has won just 9 of 89 contests all-time between the two, so it's understandable that supporters of the Scarlet and Gray may not be too scared. But that's what fans in State College, Ann Arbor, and East Lansing have all thought over the past month.
Allen has built an excellent foundation in Bloomington, as his players have shown great effort and enthusiasm for years. This fall, however, they appear to have turned a corner thanks to one of the Big Ten's stingiest run defenses and a passing game that has exploded in recent weeks.
For the Buckeyes to regain top billing in the division, they'll have to improve upon the effort shown in the second half against Rutgers. But after turning on the tape, it's clear that the Hoosiers are far from invincible.
Here are three keys phases of the game where Ohio State must focus:
Pressuring Penix
Redshirt sophomore Michael Penix Jr. is finally in full command after splitting time with Peyton Ramsey last season, and so far, it's easy to see why the lefty from Tampa won the job. Through four games, Penix sits third in the conference in passing yards-per-game with 267 and trails only Justin Fields in touchdown tosses with 9.
He's been immortalized in countless images depicting his game-winning dive for a two-point conversion against the Nittany Lions, but it was his arm that brought the Hoosiers back from an 8-point deficit at the end of regulation. Penix completed five passes to four different receivers on the final drive, remaining calm under pressure and firing balls into tight windows.
Penix entered that drive having completed just 11 of 27 attempts on the day but has since looked more confident and efficient, completing 65% of his passes since that comeback drive began. It certainly helps that he has a deep and experienced receiving corps to throw to.
Senior slot Whop Philyor was named to the preseason Biletnikoff watch list after a breakout season last fall in which he eclipsed the 100-yard receiving mark four times. Beside him are a pair of big targets in 6'5" junior tight end Peyton Hendershot and 6'4" sophomore wideout Miles Marshall.
But the story of Indiana's season can't be told without senior Ty Fryfogle, who leads the team in catches, yards, and touchdowns. Over the last two weeks against opponents from the mitten state, Fryfogle has been unstoppable, hauling in 18 catches for 342 yards and generating some incredible highlight reel moments along the way.
As we can see in the examples above, Penix is incredibly accurate when he can set his feet at the top of his drop and deliver a throw in rhythm. However, when he's knocked off his landmark in the pocket, his footwork fundamentals are woefully lacking.
Despite what he showed in crunch time against Penn State, he's been very quick to get rid of the ball before taking a sack, which has led to numerous errant throws. Though the Buckeyes lack a dominant pass rusher like Nick Bosa or Chase Young to collapse the pocket, the inside pressure we've seen from Haskell Garrett and Tommy Togiai may be the perfect antidote to the hot Hoosier passing game.
But getting to Penix has been easier said than done, as detailed below by a familiar face:
Win The Turnover Battle
There's no question that forcing turnovers has been key to the Hoosiers' success in 2020. Despite playing just four games, they currently sit third in the nation with a margin of +8 despite playing half as many games as most other teams atop the category and easily lead the Big Ten.
Many of these turnovers have come through the air, having picked off 10 passes already. That's three more INTs than they forced in 13 games last season, for those keeping score at home. How all those interceptions have come about is worth noting.
If you've followed the Big Ten much this season, you know that QB play has been quite bipolar. For all the excellent play of Penix, Fields, and Wisconsin's Graham Mertz, there have been plenty of uninspiring performances from Penn State's Sean Clifford, Michigan's Joe Milton, and Michigan State's Rocky Lombardi, who was benched midway through last weekend's matchup with the Hoosiers.
It's not Indiana's fault that all these guys seem so willing to simply throw them the ball.
All those turnovers have often resulted in great field position for Penix and the IU offense, giving it an extra boost. After scoring 17 of their 24 points immediately following Spartan interceptions last weekend, a whopping 37.8% of the Hoosiers' points have come following a forced turnover this season. Only in-state rival Purdue relies more on turnovers to generate points.
To act as though the Hoosiers are mere beneficiaries of good fortune would be unfair, however. Led by the youngest defensive coordinator in the Power-5, Kane Wommack, Indiana's defense is a zone-blitz-heavy scheme that creates pressure from all angles while keeping the secondary's eyes on the football.
Running a modern version of a single-gap 3-4, Wommack will bring cornerbacks and linebackers on blitzes throughout every game, but will still keep six defenders back in coverage, often with two deep safeties. While Fields has done a great job avoiding mistakes throughout his career, the Buckeye offensive must keep him upright, as the Hoosiers not only lead the conference in turnovers created but sacks as well.
Take Shots Downfield
Assuming Fields is able to operate from a clean pocket, he should have plenty of opportunities to make plays with his arm. The Hoosiers have surrendered 14 pass plays of 20+ yards this fall, only better than the woeful secondaries of Rutgers, Michigan, and Illinois.
While they will mix up coverages throughout the game, the Hoosiers seem to most prefer iterations of the old Tampa 2, leaving the safeties responsible for anything deep. In the modern college game, however, that leaves a lot of ground to cover:
Part of the reason Wommack's secondary relies so heavily on zone-coverage behind his pressures is that he just doesn't have the talent to keep up with the Big Ten's best wideouts in man-to-man scenarios. On the rare occasion that he has called for man, opposing offenses have been more than willing to take shots in matchups that favor the offense.
Such a weakness plays right into the strengths of the Buckeye offense. Though Fields continues to be sacked at an alarming rate, the superior talent of Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave should be able to create a number of opportunities to stretch the field vertically.
In many ways, this matchup encapsulates the current state of college football. Neither team is all that reliant on running the ball, looking instead to win the turnover battle and protect their quarterback so he can make plays downfield.
Whichever team wins those smaller battles likely wins the game this Saturday in the 'shoe.
