There’s good reason to believe Ohio State would have still won the national championship if the College Football Playoff’s new format for 2025 was in place last season, but the Buckeyes’ run to a title would have looked a little different.
With seeding now determined fully by the final CFP rankings rather than the top four seeds being reserved for conference champions – though the five highest-ranked conference champs will still be guaranteed berths in the 12-team field – Ohio State would have still hosted a first-round game in 2024, but would have played 11-seed Arizona State as the No. 6 seed rather than nine-seed Tennessee as the No. 8 seed. The Buckeyes could have still seen as many as three of the four opponents they actually played in the latter rounds, though not in the same order.
Comparing the real 2024 CFP bracket with one under the new seeding format pic.twitter.com/AkW9g8ZGey
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) May 22, 2025
As we continue to look back on “The Greatest Run in College Football History” while looking ahead to the next College Football Playoff, we’ve reimagined what Ohio State’s 2024-25 national championship run might have looked like if the new straight-seeding format had been in place.
First Round: Home Game vs. Arizona State
A first-round game against Arizona State wouldn’t have come with the comedy of Tennessee fans trying to turn Ohio Stadium into “Neyland North,” though the Sun Devils surely would have had their own fan presence at the Shoe with an alumni base of more than 650,000. Nevertheless, the Shoe would have still been rocking for the first-ever CFP game at Ohio Stadium, with the Buckeyes likely still slotted for the Saturday night game given the power of their brand.
The big storyline in this game would have been the matchup between star Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo and Ohio State’s top-ranked defense. Something would have had to give in that clash; almost no one last season shut down Skattebo, who ran for 1,711 yards and 21 touchdowns in 2024, but Ohio State’s run defense was dominant, holding opponents to less than 88 rushing yards per game on the season including an average of just 60 yards per game in the CFP.
Considering how close Arizona State came to knocking off Texas in the CFP quarterfinals before ultimately losing to the Longhorns in double overtime, I think the Sun Devils would have put up more of a fight than Tennessee did last December. But no one in college football was going to beat the version of Ohio State that took the field with a point to prove on that Saturday night in the Shoe. Skattebo, quarterback Sam Leavitt and wide receiver Jordyn Tyson would have made a couple of big plays, but they wouldn’t have been able to move the ball consistently against a defense far better than any faced all year in the Big 12, and the Buckeyes would have ultimately pulled away to start their CFP run with a statement win.
Projected Score: Ohio State 35, Arizona State 14
Quarterfinal: Fiesta Bowl vs. Texas
As the No. 3 team in the final CFP rankings, Texas would have awaited Ohio State in the quarterfinals rather than the semifinals in a bracket seeded strictly off of rankings. As such, Texas wouldn’t have had the same home-field advantage, as the Buckeyes and Longhorns would have met somewhere other than the Cotton Bowl – likely in the Fiesta Bowl, as No. 1 seed Oregon would have still gone to the Rose Bowl and No. 2 seed Georgia would still have gone to the Sugar Bowl.
It’s certainly possible Ohio State would have beaten Texas in more dominant fashion in front of what would have likely been more of a 50/50 crowd in Arizona – where Ohio State fans have always had a big presence for postseason games – but who would have wanted the Buckeyes’ legendary win over the Longhorns to go any differently than it actually did?
Most of the game was too close for comfort, and Jeremiah Smith would have loved to catch more than one pass for three yards, but we couldn’t dream up a better way for Ohio State to beat Texas than The Lone Star Heist – Jack Sawyer’s 4th-and-goal strip sack of Quinn Ewers that he turned into an 83-yard scoop-and-score, a play that will live on in Ohio State lore for decades to come.
Projected Score: Ohio State 28, Texas 14
Semifinal: Orange Bowl vs. Georgia
It’s possible Ohio State could have still ended up playing Tennessee two rounds later than it actually did, as the Volunteers would have played Georgia in the quarterfinals if they won their first-round game at Neyland Stadium vs. SMU. The Bulldogs lost their real-life quarterfinal game to Notre Dame after losing quarterback Carson Beck to a season-ending injury in the SEC Championship Game, and Tennessee would have been a threat to upset them, too.
But considering the Volunteers got blown out in Columbus and that they suffered a 31-17 loss to Georgia during the regular season, we’re projecting that the Bulldogs would have advanced to the semifinals with a more favorable quarterfinal matchup, setting up the second CFP semifinal matchup between Ohio State and Georgia in three years.
Ohio State would have been out for revenge after losing a heartbreaker in the Peach Bowl two years before, and the Buckeyes would have been more than capable of turning the rematch into a Bulldog bloodbath. Georgia’s offense struggled in Beck’s absence against Notre Dame, scoring only 10 points, so it’s hard to imagine Gunner Stockton and the Bulldogs would have gotten much done against Ohio State’s dominant 2024 defense.
Last year’s Bulldogs also weren’t the dominant defensive force that most of Kirby Smart’s squads have been, giving the Buckeyes a clear advantage on both sides of the ball. The Bulldogs would have relied on their talent and postseason experience to keep themselves from getting steamrolled, but Smith, TreVeyon Henderson, Emeka Egbuka and Co. would have made more than enough plays to punch the Buckeyes’ ticket to the national championship game with a more decisive victory than they had over Texas.
Projected Score: Ohio State 31, Georgia 10
National Championship Game vs. Oregon
Oregon’s misfortune of drawing Ohio State in the quarterfinals despite being the only undefeated team entering last year’s CFP was one of the biggest catalysts for changing the format one year into the 12-team playoff. Ohio State and Oregon were viewed as the two national championship favorites entering the Rose Bowl, and there was always a belief among many that the victor of that game would go on to win it all.
It’s no given that Oregon would have made it to the national championship game even if it didn’t have to play Ohio State in an earlier round, as the Ducks likely would have had to beat one of Penn State (who they narrowly defeated, 45-37, in the Big Ten Championship Game) or Notre Dame (the team who actually faced Ohio State in the national championship) in the semifinals under the new seeding format. But we’ll go ahead and assume the Ducks would have made it to Atlanta given that they beat everyone other than Ohio State that they played last season.
That would have set up a second straight revenge game for the Buckeyes as they sought to make good for their 32-31 loss in Eugene during the regular season. And if the Rose Bowl was any indication, Ohio State would have taken down its conference foes in the second straight All-Big Ten national championship game to keep the Ducks one game short of winning their first-ever national title – just as the 2014 Buckeyes did in the first four-team College Football Playoff 10 years earlier.
The first national championship game between Ohio State and Oregon was closer than it should have been for three quarters before the Buckeyes pulled away in the final 15 minutes to win 42-20, but the Rose Bowl was never close as it was 34-0 in the second quarter before the Buckeyes cruised to a 41-21 triumph. Smith, the star of the Rose Bowl with seven catches for 187 yards and two touchdowns, would have proved too good for Oregon to cover once again and led the Buckeyes to a national championship as a true freshman, just as he did with his 56-yard catch against Notre Dame.
Projected Score: Ohio State 41, Oregon 21
