You may have heard some buzz about Ohio State having "the most talented roster in college football" for 2024.
It's been quite the storyline throughout the offseason, which started back when Ryan Day aggressively responded to the Buckeyes ending another season with consecutive losses. Suddenly, status quo became unacceptable - and here we are.
Except the most talented roster glosses over Day's teams' prevailing issues. Talent hasn't been the program's problem since John Cooper's first season. Coaching deficiencies - from nepo babies to underperforming cronies to guys who might be okay coaching somewhere other than this place - were assessed and in most cases exited. And here we are.
Terminating underperforming coaches while hiring your old boss is a boring, one-and-done story. The only web sites which enjoy significant traffic from stories like Ohio State Head Coach Behaves Like Leader of Program Expected to Win Championships are Ohio State web sites. You're on one right now! It's not about you - you'll read anything about this program.
Jim Tressel and Urban Meyer combined for zero national championships AT OHIO STATE WHEN THEY WERE EQUIPPED WITH theIR STRONGEST ROSTERS.
But it's not interesting enough for the masses - remember Tatgate? That was interesting. Scandal is interesting. Inflated expectations are interesting. Right-sizing the staff (over 100 FBS programs don't have a full-time Special Teams Coordinator for a reason) and upgrading the caliber of coaches is not interesting.
The Buckeyes adding seven guys from the transfer portal - five starters plus Julian Sayin and Kennan Nelson Jr - while retaining 11 draftable players from the 2023 team is very clicky. It's interesting because it's not normal. That's the storyline. And here we are.
When a program like Ohio State does this, you might whiff desperation - especially if you're told they're 1-5 over the past three years in their final two games. That's not okay, so bold behavior is required. Your 2024 Buckeyes have 16 starters as serious candidates for all-B1G honors at season's end. Sixteen, really? S i x t e e n.
This is inspired program management if you're a Buckeye fan. But if you're not:
How Ohio State built a $20 million, 'national championship or bust' roster - via @ESPN App https://t.co/HF9OAXKRf3
— Lane Kiffin (@Lane_Kiffin) August 26, 2024
Well, then it might just feel unfair. That tweet above is Ole Miss head coach Joey Freshwater sharing one of a trillion articles - rough estimate - about the 2024 Ohio State roster. The Rebels took 25 players (that's an entire recruiting class!) out of the portal this past offseason, which for math-haters is 18 more than the Buckeyes accepted.
No sarcasm here - Kiffin is not mad. Twitter is an efficient way to show your program's fans that you're telling your Boss Hogg boosters to act like they care as much as Ohio State's do. This is theater with a purpose.
Among the pundits gushing over who is taking the field in Columbus this season are Columbus football experts Jim Tressel and Urban Meyer, two guys who understand the danger of having immensely talented and loaded rosters. The two legends combined for zero national championships when equipped with national championship-caliber rosters at Ohio State.
Tressel won his with a freshman running back and a game manager under center while escaping no fewer than nine coin-flip games en route to 14-0. Meyer won his with a 3rd string quarterback and a whole bunch of new starters replacing guys from the previous season who squandered the same opportunity.
And that's a terrifying word for 2024, squandered. Tressel and Day are cautionary tale experts who didn't win it all (2003, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2013, 2015, 2017) when they had rosters fully equipped and expected to do so. This natty or bust chatter sucks, but here we are.
As for Day, his best team to date didn’t win the national title either. But - stop me if you've heard this already - the guys he's rolling out on Saturday might just be better than what he had in 2019. And there's no SEC officiating crew or replay booth on the horizon for several more months.
You made it to game week! I'm glad you're here. Situational Season 13 begins now -
OPENER | DO HARD THINGS
Quinshon Judkins runs the ball against Penn State in his final game at Ole Miss, the 2023 Peach Bowl, Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Above is how Quinshon Judkins looked the last time he registered statistics in a football game. The opponent may look familiar but that's about it. New season, new team.
Judkins rushed for 131 yards against the Nittany Lions, or 46 more than Miyan Williams and Chip Trayanum had combined against them last October. TreVeyon Henderson was unavailable for that game. It probably wouldn't have changed the performance.
That's because Penn State's correct strategy of Force Kyle McCord to Beat Us was deployed for four quarters. And to his credit, he did - throwing for 286 yards, mostly to Marvin Harrison Jr. who was on the receiving end of 162 of them and the decisive touchdown.
They were committed to taking away the run and held Ohio State's tandem to just 2.5 yards per carry. Chip-Chop split 33 carries that day. Judkins had 34 in the Peach Bowl by himself.
And that's a big part of why he's no longer in Oxford. In two seasons being The Guy at Ole Miss, he already has close to the number of carries Beanie Wells had over three years in Columbus. Load Management is a critical piece of the value proposition he was offered.
Preserving STARTERS for A LENGTHY run WILL require A LEVEL OF trust IN the younger guys this program just hasn't shown recently.
This balancing act is a bit tricky - it requires Ohio State's staff to rotate in guys enough to give them the optimal volume of reps that a) keep them content and motivated in an era of unprecedented tampering, while b) ensuring the Buckeyes are running up the score at a clip which c) allows deeper rotation than they've historically demonstrated. Especially defensive lines. Optimized participation.
The Buckeyes have got Goldilocks Conditions this season from the schedule to the roster, but that expires after 2024 season. The way Ohio State's coaches manage workload and opportunities this season will not just create a more sustainable journey in what should be 16 games (ending with five consecutive top ten opponents, eek!) but it will shape 2025 when the Buckeyes aren't able to retain 11 draftable guys again.
They're getting one year of Quinshon. One year of Will Howard. A whole bunch of grand finales without any ambiguous stay-or-go drama because their eligibility drawers is empty. Preserving them for the run is going to require a discipline and a trust of the younger guys this program just hasn't shown recently.
And that might be a hard habit to break, but they have to do it this year - and preferably make it their new habit going forward. Free agency and load management are allies for a program as wealthy as Ohio State's, which means they can be the model for in-season depth management and optimized participation.
It sounds weird to say this and be serious about it: Akron is going to teach us a lot.
INTERMISSION
The Solo
The last time we had to tolerate the unforgivable phrase Defending National Champion Michigan Wolverines it was following the 1997 season. This year, intermissions will pay homage to that cursed year's Billboard Hot 100.
Apparently there was an animated film called Hercules released by Disney during my post-college pre-children pre-watching children's movies window - which is to say I didn't know it existed until moments ago. Maybe I bought the DVD 20 years ago? No one knows.
But who better to craft a soaring soundtrack single for a big-budget cartoon than the intrepid programmer analyst from Office Space, Mr. Michael Bolton. It's too perfect, just like Michigan's record in 1997 when it reached the sport's apex without being embroiled in multiple cheating scandals.
I found out about Bolton's Go The Distance (not to be confused with the Cake banger, released a year earlier) shortly before learning of its position in Hercules. It contains an electric guitar solo. Let's answer our two questions.
Is the musician in the video actually playing the electric guitar?
Lead guitar comes via Dann Lee Huff from the band Giant, unsurprisingly. Huff was world's most-preferred session guitarist, having done this exact contract job for everyone from Barbara Streisand to Whitesnake. If you need a soaring guitar solo that you'll forget about the second it's completed, Dann's the mann.
He doesn't appear in this video, however. VERDICT: Inconclusive
does this guitar solo slap?
This is tricky because we're talking about a Bolton production for children. It's the close-up shots of his face, interspersed with Hercules doing herculean things (I have to assume the movie didn't veer too far from Apollonius Rhodius' Argonautica) and you're only supposed to be consumed by the pop star and his hair. That's the assignment.
The point is this solo cannot rise to the heights of Mount Olympus because that would be out of scope. Dann's role was to elevate Hercules and Bolton, not to overshadow them. He did the job correctly, and the check cleared. Victorious. VERDICT: Does not slap.
The Bourbon
There is a bourbon for every situation. Sometimes the spirits and the events overlap, which means that where bourbon is concerned there can be more than one worthy choice.
Digits. A bourbon for running up the score.
Ohio State's first three opponents are technically Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall. The quiet part of this stretch is your favorite team should be using them to lay the sturdy sub-flooring for an extended 16-game run.
That means the first quarter of the schedule is incredibly important for sustainability initiatives. We'll get into more detail in the next section, but the gist is they need to put enough space between themselves and these opponents by halftime to ensure, preferably, no more than one 2nd half appearance by the 1st string.
Post-halftime rhythm is important; you want starters in for one 3rd quarter possession even if they're up by 80. This is prudent selfishness. Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall are all getting significant checks for this.
So the Buckeyes should aim for a scoreboard number north of 35 before TBDBITL slides out of the south stands to take the field. We're looking at a spread of 105 in aggregate before halftime. Big numeral. Lofty integer. High digits.
It's been a few years and vintages since Digits last showed up in this space. Originally a limited edition, it performed well enough to justify some sequels - that's how the free market works. That's Scottie Pippen's hand on the bottle.
The master distiller's name is Jordan (not that Jordan) whom I think simply took the George Dickel single barrel mash bill and produced a youthful vintage. Enjoy Digits neat while Mitchell Melton creates 2nd half highlights at Akron's expense.
CLOSER | OPEN SEASON
Lincoln Kienholz replaced injured starting quarterback Devin Brown during the 2023 Cotton Bowl. © Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK
Watching sports exclusively through an analytical Moneyball lens is a joyless endeavor - don't do that - but at the same time pretending math isn't a critical component of building a winning strategy is a sure path to losing. Just ask Napoleon, George Pickett or Charlie Weis.
The Buckeyes need to create an early, aggressive and overwhelming cushion in all three of their early games - let's say 35 points by halftime. All starters out of the game - offensive linemen included - by the open of the 4th quarter.
It's not about the point spread - it's about sustainability and avoiding any possibility of entering 2025 saying things like "uh, we need to see what these guys can do" nope, that's what the first three games on this schedule were tailored to deliver. Use them wisely.
Here's a tracker, we'll fill this out over the next few weeks.
| OPPONENT | GOAL 1H MARGIN | ACTUAL 1H MARGIN | GOAL PARTICIPATION | ACTUAL PARTICIPATION | SNAP CAP | ACTUAL CAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKRON | 35 | TBD | 65 | TBD | 48 | TBD |
| WESTERN MICHIGAN | 35 | TBD | 65 | TBD | 48 | TBD |
| MARSHALL | 35 | TBD | 65 | TBD | 48 | TBD |
This is a finger-in-the-air directional trend for sustainability. Ohio State should a) be up by 35 at half in each of its first three games b) get 65 guys into each game, with no road games or limited roster restrictions in play, and c) have no player getting more than 48 snaps on any side of the ball.
It's not a pass/fail exercise. It's just that the 2023 starters were kept in their run-up-the-score games far longer than they should have been, and part of that was the consequence of last year's starting quarterback possessing a maddening, chronic inability to perform at a serviceable level until after halftime.
Smelling salts? Marching band music? No one knows. And thankfully, nobody needs to care.
This team should have a concerted focus on putting the game out of hand early so that its starters can begin recuperation well prior to singing Carmen Ohio. That's the opponent for these first three games.
If the Buckeyes are putting these teams away early and you find yourself looking at the roster to see who these unfamiliar jersey numbers are, we'll all be in a comforting place. We will see the benefits in November, December and beyond.
Thanks for getting Situational today. Go Bucks. Beat Akron.
