It's not often you breathe a sigh of relief for drawing a higher seed in the NCAA Tournament, especially when that higher seed costs you a chance to host the opening weekend's games, but the Buckeyes might be doing just that after Monday night's NCAA Tournament reveal.
After a loss to Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals, Ohio State found itself right on the bubble between a No. 4 seed and a No. 5 seed — in a lose-lose situation. If the Buckeyes got final the fourth seed, they would host the opening weekend's games in Columbus but have to face four-time defending NCAA champion Connecticut in the Sweet 16. If they got a fifth seed, they would avoid UConn but open the tournament on the road.
Ohio State got the latter; the Buckeyes are the No. 5 seed in the Lexington region and will open NCAA Tournament play against Western Kentucky on Friday at 2:30 p.m. in Lexington, Kentucky.
Low four or high five, Ohio State is probably under-seeded. As the No. 11 team in the last AP Poll before the tournament, one could argue the Buckeyes deserved a No. 3 seed, or a No. 4 seed at worst, but Ohio State's strength of schedule hurt it come selection time as it was ranked 27th in the latest RPI rankings.
The Buckeyes began the season with a difficult nonconference slate, playing games against three of the tournament's four No. 1 seeds and two other opponents ranked in the top 25. They didn't fare well in those games though, beating only Syracuse for a 1-4 record against ranked opponents.
With the Big Ten as weak as its been in recent memory, Ohio State was unable to boost its resume much in conference play. The team's only other win against a ranked opponent came against Maryland, but the Terrapins got little respect from the selection committee due to strength of schedule as well; they were ranked just 16th in the final RPI rankings despite a No. 4 ranking in the AP Poll.
Seeding aside, the Buckeyes are in a position to make a deep tournament run. They open play with very winnable games in the opening two rounds before a likely matchup with No. 1 seeded Notre Dame in the Sweet 16. Of all the No. 1 seed seeds in the tournament, Ohio State matches up best against Notre Dame, given the size of Baylor and South Carolina and the outright dominance of UConn.
Although last year's Buckeye team had a better seed, they are much better equipped for postseason play this time. Last season, two injuries crippled the team's chances in the postseason and Ohio State limped into the NCAA Tournament with barely a six players to send on the court.
This season, the Buckeyes finally have depth. Ohio State has a 10 player rotation and has already dealt with the loss of a top player after Stephanie Mavunga, the team's leading rebounder and second-leading scorer, went down with a foot injury. Without her, the Buckeyes didn't miss a beat. They went on a 12 game winning streak and blasted Maryland to earn the regular season Big Ten championship.
Mavunga is expected to return to the lineup soon. McGuff said she will likely be a game-time decision on Friday. However, if Ohio State can make it through the weekend, she would likely be full-go for a Sweet 16 matchup against the Irish.
The Buckeyes also have one asset nobody else has: Kelsey Mitchell. The Big Ten Player of the Year is arguably the nation's most prolific scorer and she seems to turn it up a notch come tournament time, averaging 28 points a game in the NCAA Tournament including a 45-point game against West Virginia last season.
Ohio State may not be a favorite to take home the hardware in Dallas at the end of the season, but don't rule them out yet. If this team gets hot, it's unbeatable.
When the Buckeyes played Maryland towards the end of the regular season, the team exploded for 35 points in the opening quarter and shot an absurd 63 percent from the field and 55 percent from three-point range. They had a similar performance to open the Big Ten Tournament, outscoring Northwestern 51-24 in the first half, and earlier in the season when they closed out Cincinnati on a 63-10 run.
If they can string a couple of those games together late in the tournament, watch out. There's not much any team can do against a team shooting like that.
They may be a No. 5 seed, they may have a weak strength of schedule and they may come from a weak Big Ten conference, but nobody wants any part of this Buckeye team in March.
