Skull Session: 20,000 No-Show Fans On Saturday, Chris Olave Needs the Ball, and Two Big Ten Teams Could Make Playoff

Wednesday mood:

Nothing like a little pre-workout dance off to get loose #Team123 #GoBucks pic.twitter.com/ogIR0nDJJj
— Ohio State Hoops (@OhioStateHoops) September 21, 2021

Word of the Day: Manumit.

NO CALL NO SHOW. I've got sad news for everybody who blamed last weekend's atrocious attendance on soaring ticket prices: people bought the tickets; they just didn't show up for the game (much like the defense).

Per Ohio State, approximately 20,000 people who had tickets to Saturday's game vs. Tulsa did not attend. Attendance for Saturday's game was just 76,540, lowest for an Ohio State home game since 1971 (excluding 2020).

Tickets still available for this week's game against Akron.
— Dan Hope (@Dan_Hope) September 21, 2021

This adds up if you looked at Stubhub on Saturday, where you could have bought an A-Deck ticket for less than $50, and a C-Deck ticket for around $25. This week, face-value tickets start at $66, and I promise they'll be much lower than that by gameday.

Point is, if there are 20,000 people paying face value for tickets and still not going to the game, Ohio State's attendance woes aren't just going to be magically fixed by slashing ticket prices, and there's no incentive to drop ticket prices if those 20,000 people bought them anyway.

JUST GIVE HIM THE DAMN BALL. Chris Olave ain't the sort of guy to complain about touches, targets or stats. But for the good of the team, maybe he should.

There's just no way a guy that good should have only been targeted three times against Tulsa.

I’m not sure Chris Olave envisioned forgoing the NFL Draft to go catchless vs. Tulsa. Olave did catch one ball in the fourth quarter that did not count because of a penalty, but only had three targets total. That can’t happen! The All-American WR is the best piece of a loaded Ohio State offense and has got to get involved early and often.

There’s only one ball to go around and Olave is dealing with the early struggles of QB C.J Stroud, but there are some simple solutions. Olave can get involved with quick screens, jet-sweeps, and slants to get Stroud in early rhythm. While winning is the most important stat of the game, Olave needs to get 10-15 touches a game to give OSU the best chance of success. Ryan Day has lots of issues to deal with this season, mostly on the defensive side of the football, but Olave finishing the game without a catch should not be one of them.

10-15 touches seems a tad extreme given that the Buckeye offense also includes TreVeyon Henderson, Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jeremy Ruckert, etc. But if he was on any other normal roster that isn't loaded with WMDs, you can bet your ass those are the type of targets he would get.

I'm not into just getting a dude touches for the sake of getting him touches. I hope that died back in 2016. But if your natural offense results in the best receiver in the country getting zero catches on three targets against Tulsa, something has gone horrifically wrong.

I'm willing to write it off as a fluke, especially given that one of those targets was a pretty gross drop on Olave's part, but I'll be admittedly concerned if this happens again against the mighty Zips.

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN? The good news is, esteemed statistician and noted football knower Bill Connelly has gone one record predicting that the Big Ten will put not one, but *two* teams in the College Football Playoff this year.

The bad news is, he doesn't think the Buckeyes will be one of them.

These are heady days in Big Ten country, and not only because the ennui wafting from Ann Arbor has died down (for now). The ice cream tastes a little sweeter at the Michigan State and Penn State dairies. The burgers at Short's in Iowa City are a little juicier. Iowa and Penn State are both in the top six in the AP poll, and Michigan, Maryland, Michigan State and Rutgers are each 3-0 for the first time since 2017, 2016, 2015 and 2012, respectively. Of the 15 power-conference teams with at least a 4% chance of going 11-1 or better, per SP+, five reside in the Big Ten. Even if Alabama and Georgia win out in the regular season and gobble up two of the four spots in the College Football Playoff -- which is obviously far from guaranteed -- the oddity of the early season and the sheer depth of options within the Big Ten could mean that it has a chance at scoring both of the other two spots.

Technically, Ohio State is one of those teams. The Buckeyes still enjoy the highest SP+ ranking in the conference and have a 9% chance of finishing 11-1 or better.

The Buckeyes clearly are still good. But while all of these rousing stories were taking shape on Saturday, the four-time defending Big Ten champions were seriously contemplating losing to Tulsa.

...

The Buckeyes' offense remains dynamite, of course, ranking first in offensive SP+ and fifth in yards per play (8.1). Backs TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams are averaging 9 yards per carry, and receivers Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are on pace for a combined 200 catches and 3,000 yards. But after allowing 6.9 yards per play to Oregon, the Buckeyes allowed 6.1 against Tulsa. They have slid to 39th in defensive SP+, and with a large number of strong (read: better than Tulsa) teams remaining on the slate, SP+ indeed gives them only a 9% chance of getting to 11-1. Those are almost equal to their odds of going 7-5 or worse.

That last part is a gigantic kick in the nuts.

"SP+ indeed gives them only a 9% chance of getting to 11-1. Those are almost equal to their odds of going 7-5 or worse."

And the saddest part is, I find absolutely no fault in those numbers. The only thing that leads me to believe anything different is not much more than blind hope and a general lifelong observation that Ohio State is relatively immune to bad things.

Here's hoping they keep proving me right!

COME HOME, JEFF. Ohio State's playing a lot more nooners these days thanks to the suits at Fox, and I'm a recent enough graduate to know that noon kicks and college students go together like chocolate milk and pickle juice.

But our good friend Jeff Hafley has a very simple solution to this problem: just don't sleep.

Speaking to reporters today, BC coach Jeff Hafley complimented #Mizzou's Tyler Badie and Connor Bazelak. But the highlight was this line:
Students, come early, tailgate early. If you dont want to wake up early, then dont go to bed. Just come out right from the night before.
— Mitchell Forde (@Mitchell4D) September 21, 2021

I can't honestly say I'd really even consider trading Ryan Day for Jeff Hafley, but I'd sure consider paying him $3 million a year to coach Ohio State's defense for the foreseeable future.

Venables him! Please!

SONG OF THE DAY. "Bang Bang" by Cher.