Skull Session: Ohio State Football Has Third-Best Odds to Win Next Year's CFP Title, the Buckeyes Have What It Takes to Beat Georgia and Ryan Day Looks Forward to a 12-Team Playoff

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— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) April 6, 2023

Let's have a good Friday, shall we?

 I LIKE THOSE ODDS. With the 2023 college football season five months away, FanDuel Sportsbook has released its list of betting favorites to win the national championship on Jan. 8, 2024, at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.

And no surprise here: FanDuel has a Georgia vs. The Field approach with its early lines, as the Bulldogs possess +220 odds to win the College Football Playoff, which is two times more favorable than any other team.

After back-to-back national titles from Kirby Smart, it's hard to argue that fact as of April, as Georgia will return the nation's best tight end in Brock Bowers and added four-star receivers RaRa Thomas from Mississippi State and Dominic Lovett from Missouri. Either 2020 four-star Carson Beck or 2021 five-star Brock Vandagriff will start at quarterback.

Behind Georgia, Nick Saban and Alabama have the next-best odds at +500, but Ryan Day and Ohio State are not far behind at +700. Michigan has the fourth-best mark at +1000 and USC rounds out the top five with +1600 odds.

And that sounds accurate, yeah?

The Crimson Tide will always have favorable odds if Nick Saban stands on the sidelines. After all, he's won seven national championships in the last two decades, one with LSU in 2003 and six with Alabama in 2009, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2017 and 2020. He's the greatest college football coach of all time.

As for Ohio State, I could remind everyone of the Buckeyes' performance in last year's Peach Bowl, where the team was a made field goal away from defeating Georgia and moving on to the CFP title, where many believe they would have beaten a TCU team that suffered the worst championship game loss ever, 59-7, to the Bulldogs.

But Ohio State's coaches and players – and, yes, even the fans – can't reflect on what could have happened in the past. Eventually, everyone has to look forward.

Next season, the Buckeyes will have Kyle McCord or Devin Brown at quarterback. Whoever wins that competition will have weapons like Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka, TreVeyon Henderson, Miyan Williams and Cade Stover around them.

Defensively, Ohio State returns a menacing defensive line of JT Tuimoloau, Mike Hall Jr., Tyleik Williams and Jack Sawyer, not to mention Tommy Eichenberg, Steele Chambers, Lathan Ransom and several other weapons who should combine to make the Silver Bullets one of the best units in all of America.

Ohio State has all the tools necessary to accomplish its goals in 2023 of beating Michigan, winning a Big Ten Championship and a national championship. For those who have read the Skully the last few months, you know which of those goals I believe is most important. If the Buckeyes take care of business from September to November, the program has as good a chance as ever to win it all. For the good of Buckeye Nation, I hope they do.

 A SHOT AT REDEMPTION. OK, I know I said in the previous section that eventually, everyone has to look forward, specifically Ohio State as it looks to bounce back from its narrow loss to Georgia last season. But I will reflect on the past in this section. My “eventually” has not come... yet.

ESPN college football senior writer Heather Dinich wrote an article this week that looked to answer the question, "Who can stop Georgia?"

"Well, Alabama can," another SEC head coach said. "Missouri should have. The best thing that can beat Georgia is Georgia, but a fast-paced offense like Tennessee would have some type of chance. Alabama. Obviously Ohio State. After that, probably not a lot. But I think the best opponent Georgia would have is Georgia not playing well because they're that dominating."

As for how Ohio State beats Georgia in 2023 – if the two teams even face each other, that is – Dinich had a few ideas. They start on defense. Explosive plays allowed by Jim Knowles' unit put the Bulldogs in a position to retake control of the Peach Bowl despite C.J. Stroud and the Buckeyes' offense performing to their highest level of the season. For the offense, Dinich says Ohio State needs to do precisely what it did last time the programs met.

This scenario assumes they meet again in the CFP, whether it's a semifinal or the national championship. To finish the job, Ohio State can't allow so many big plays on defense. According to ESPN's Stats & Info, Ohio State allowed Georgia 10 plays of at least 20 yards, the most they've allowed in ANY game as far back as ESPN's data tracks (since 2004). Stetson Bennett was a perfect 4-for-4 on throws 15-plus yards downfield in the final quarter. Ohio State, though, pushed back with seven offensive plays of at least 20 yards, and Georgia had never allowed more than five in any other game last season except against LSU (11). Ohio State and LSU were the only two teams last year that scored more than 22 points and had more than 400 total yards against the Bulldogs.

The statistics I bolded are particularly damning for the Ohio State defense. The "allowed 10 plays of at least 20 yards" one was so porous even Dinich had no choice but to use all caps for the word "ANY" when writing that it was the most a team had ever given up in the 19 years since the stat was first recorded. Keeping those kinds of plays to a minimum would be priority numero uno for Day, Knowles and the Buckeyes.

Ohio State's offense would need to perform to a similar level as it did against the Bulldogs on New Year's Eve. It may not require the same superhuman effort from McCord or Brown that Stroud had, but a good game from the quarterback combined with the expected performances of Harrison and Co. would make the contest entertaining from start to finish.

Again, this assumes Ohio State and Georgia would meet in the CFP. Still, I'm sure all of you hope the Buckeyes will be there and expect the Bulldogs to be in the playoff on New Year's Day 2024.

Whether the teams meet in the Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl or the national championship seven days later, UGA feels like a team that will stand in the way of Ohio State and a title. If that happens, the Buckeyes better be prepared, using an opportunity for redemption as their motivation.

 EXPANSION IS COMING. Remember when I said my "eventually" had not come yet? Well, that's still the case. I have another note to make on Ohio State's loss to Georgia last season, which comes via the words of the Buckeyes' head coach on Barstool Sports' "Bussin' With the Boys" podcast hosted by Will Compton and Taylor Lewan.

Day said the team's Peach Bowl loss makes him "sick every day to think about," knowing the chance Oho State had to win a championship had it advanced past the Bulldogs. Day made the point as part of a more extensive explanation of how he views the future of college football with a 12-team playoff.

“It makes me sick every day to think about it. I go back through you know, you think about [the 2019 loss to Clemson in the CFP] but this last game … it’s one play here, one play there, but it doesn’t happen. And so, you know, you have to own it. And it’s hard. It’s hard to take but you have to regroup and learn from it. And like you said, Keep swinging. 

“I think that the 12 team playoff will be interesting. I think it’s going to be interesting to see how that all plays out. The first four teams get a 'bye,' get home field advantage. That’s cool playing in the Big Ten. That could be a game in December on the road, you know, so there’s a lot to be determined here. Now that’s two years away, but looking forward to seeing what that looks like.”

The Georgia loss and a 12-team playoff may not seem to correlate at first glance, but Day made the point that reaching the CFP will still have tremendous value for programs because it can lead to back-and-forth matchups like the Buckeyes had with the Bulldogs. A broader point Day made was that rivalry games, such as Ohio State's legendary battles with Michigan, will still have the same meaning to both programs.

According to Day, the first thing coaches and players learn about Ohio State is its rivalry with Michigan. He doesn't think that will change in two years when the 12-team playoff takes effect, and he believes the same about the future 10, 15, 20 years down the road.

And good on him for believing that because it's true.

No matter the postseason format, Ohio State and Michigan will always, always, always hate each other. It is The Game for The Rivalry. I also believe the Buckeyes will treat every regular-season matchup with the same mindset they always have because they are one of the few programs in college football that not only chase conference titles and national championships, they chase perfection.

 "YOU WANT TO WIN FOR HIM." I've referenced the Bussin' With The Boys podcast in the Skully or other articles a few times this week. The reason for that is Compton and Lewan apparently spoke to every Ohio State coach and player when they visited the Woody Hayes Athletic Center last week.

First, it was Brian Hartline and Day. But Barstool Sports posted another interview this week that Compton and Lewan conducted with Paris Johnson Jr. on the same day. To wrap up this Skull Session, I wanted to include a quote from Johnson about why he chose to play for Ohio State and Day. I think it's pretty neat.

"I came here for the family, The Brotherhood and the guys that came before that showed the way. But really that I was recruited by Coach (Urban) Meyer and his philosophy and his history of winning. And then with Coach Day, the family vibe he brought and the winning culture. I feel like that's what ultimately brought me here.

"Coach Day, he's a true players coach. He's the type of coach that when you come around him, you don't change up. When he comes into the room, you are excited to see him. The way he coaches and the way he inspires. He's one of those coaches where – it's like this – you play good for a coach, you may feel like you're trying not to get yelled at or not make a mistake... (but with Coach Day) you love that coach in a way where you play in a whole different way, without fear or worry. You want to win for him because you appreciate him."

That's one helluva endorsement from a future first-round pick and likely top-15 pick in the 2023 NFL draft. I know Day has become a polarizing figure in Buckeye Nation in the last two years, but his players and staff love him. Maybe hold off on calling for the guillotine for the time being?

Just a thought.

 SONG OF THE DAY. "Kashmir" by Led Zeppelin.

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