Welcome to the Skull Session.
An Ohio State professor was awarded a Nobel Prize on Tuesday.
Congratulations to Emeritus Professor Pierre Agostini, who has won the Nobel Prize in Physics for his study of electron dynamics in matter.
— Ohio State News (@OhioStateNews) October 3, 2023
The Nobel Prize is the pinnacle of scientific achievement, said Acting President Peter Mohler. All of us at Ohio State celebrate this pic.twitter.com/hkmhefmZUB
That rocks.
Let's have a good Wednesday, shall we?
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES. In a recent ESPN article, Bill Connelly ranked the 22 undefeated college football teams after five weeks of the 2023 season. With SP+, FPI and SOS as the central criteria, he ranked Ohio State second behind archrival Michigan and ahead of Oregon, Washington and Georgia.
As Connelly ordered schools No. 1 to No. 22, he broke down each team's known strengths and weaknesses ahead of Week 6. Here is Connelly's breakdown of THE World Famous Ohio State Buckeyes:
*Ohio State ranks second in the SP+, first in FPI and 42nd in SOS
BIGGEST STATISTICAL STRENGTH: Shockingly, it's big play prevention. Remember last year's Ohio State team? The one that fielded a wrecking ball of an offense and an aggressive defense that was far too all-or-nothing at times? This Ohio State isn't that Ohio State. The Buckeyes' defense currently ranks fourth in my marginal explosiveness measure (which looks at the magnitude of a team's successful plays and adjusts for down, distance and field position). They are sacrificing aggression for big-play prevention, and it's paid off thus far.
BIGGEST STATISTICAL WEAKNESS: They're losing the red zone. Of course, part of a good bend-don't-break approach is making stops when your opponent reaches the red zone. But the Buckeyes are currently 85th in red zone touchdown rate allowed (67%), and their offense is 96th (54%). It's really hard to remain among the unbeatens if you're settling for field goals and your opponent is scoring touchdowns.
Ohio State's "explosives" prevention will be tested this weekend when the Buckeyes welcome Taulia Tagovailoa and the Terrapins to Columbus. On Tuesday, Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles praised the veteran Maryland quarterback for how he "creates offense" with his powerful arm.
"He's always been a dynamic player. He creates offense. He has a really strong arm. He can make throws (from) sideline to sideline," Knowles said. "He hurt us with some plays last year. I think he's a great player, but he's also making good decisions."
Knowles is correct. Tagovailoa has made good decisions in 2023, which has been crucial to the team's success. He has completed 111 of 169 passes (65.7%) for 1,464 yards, 13 touchdowns and three interceptions across five appearances for the Terps.
Ohio State's defense must make Tagovailoa uncomfortable on Saturday, as relentless pressure from the Rushmen and some well-timed blitzes could make the 5-foot-11, 208-pound quarterback revert back to the Tagovailoa who recorded 26 combined interceptions in 2020, 2021 and 2022.
"The bottom line is limit explosive plays and win on third and fourth down," Knowles said.
As for Ohio State's lack of red zone success, I am convinced the Buckeyes' defense will improve in that area as the season continues. But the offense? Eh, I am not so sure. The Buckeyes' lack of red zone success on offense correlates to inefficiencies in short-yardage situations — an area Ohio State head coach Ryan Day said the Buckeyes have focused on since Sept. 23.
"We want to be 100%, but 3rd-and-1, 3rd-and-2, we need to be at least north of 80%," Day said on Tuesday. "We want to win every short-yardage situation. We work hard to get into those situations. We need to be at least 80%. We need to be better."
If Ohio State can surpass an 80% success rate in those scenarios, I will feel much better about the Buckeyes' chances to score touchdowns in the red zone. Until then, Day and Co. could continue to experience headaches inside the 20-yard line.
LET'S PUMP THE BRAKES. When a reporter asked Ryan Day about Maryland's defense on Tuesday, the Ohio State head coach called the 11-plus Terrapins on that side of the ball "sound." Then, his compliments continued.
"They replaced some good DBs last year with more good DBs," Day said. "I think the safeties are playing well. The corners are excellent. The linebackers are more experienced this year, playing faster. (They've) recruited some guys up front. They are very sound. They don't give up a lot of big plays, and they create turnovers."
Maryland's defense has performed well this season. The Terrapins rank 38th in total defense and 16th in scoring defense in the NCAA, allowing 328.2 yards and 13.2 points per game. The Terps also rank 10th in Max Olson's stop rate metric with a 79.5% stop rate and 1.20 points allowed per drive across four FBS matchups and 44 defensive possessions.
How-evuh, here were Maryland's opponents in Weeks 1-5 and their offensive production in 2023 (current FBS ranks in parentheses):
TEAM | RECORD | TOTAL OFFENSE | SCORING OFFENSE |
---|---|---|---|
TOWSON (FCS) | 2-3 | N/A | N/A |
CHARLOTTE | 1-4 | 311.2 YPG (120) | 18.4 (122) |
VIRGINIA | 0-5 | 328.0 YPG (111) | 21.4 (105) |
@ MICHIGAN STATE | 2-3 | 371.4 YPG (83) | 21.6 (103) |
INDIANA | 2-3 | 334.2 YPG (107) | 20.8 (111) |
Maryland's defense has performed well, but (*insert several asterisks*) its opponents have been trash.
Through five weeks, the Terrapins' defense has not faced an offense that features Kyle McCord, Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka, Julian Fleming, Cade Stover, TreVeyon Henderson and Chip Trayanum. Ohio State possesses that talent and then some. That said, we will see how Maryland's "sound" defense performs when it battles the No. 4-ranked Buckeyes on Saturday.
PEACOCK IS... INEVITABLE. In the Tuesday Skull Session, I wrote about how Ohio State fans believed the football team escaped the dreaded regular-season game on Peacock. But like the Galactic Empire in Star Wars, the multi-colored peafowl struck back, as Ohio State's battle with Purdue on Oct. 14 was announced as noon kickoff on NBC's subscription-based streaming service.
On Tuesday, NBC delivered its second blow.
Five of Ohio State's men's basketball games this season will be broadcast by Peacock, including its non-conference home game against Texas A&M and four Big Ten games. https://t.co/NfQaSxKe66
— Eleven Warriors (@11W) October 3, 2023
The Ohio State men's basketball team will play 31 regular-season games in 2023-24, with 10 televised on CBS, FOX or FS1, 11 on Big Ten Network, three on BIG+ and two on CBS Sports Network. The other five will be streamed on Peacock.
It is inevitable.
To make matters worse, some of the Buckeyes' best matchups will be on Peacock. Ohio State's nonconference showdown with No. 12 Texas A&M on Nov. 10 and Big Ten matchups with Nebraska (Jan. 23), Illinois (Jan. 30), Indiana (Feb. 6) and Wisconsin (Feb. 13) are all Peacock exclusives. That blows.
Unfortunately, live sports on streaming services are the future. That is, until streaming services become cable again, and we all start the whole cord-gathering, cord-cutting cycle over in a couple of decades. That will be a hoot.
A TOP-10 QB? Former Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud's NFL career is off to an excellent start. After the Houston Texans drafted him second overall in the 2023 NFL draft, Stroud has completed 62.3% of his passes for 1,212 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions across four starts. On Sunday, he tossed for 306 yards and two scores as the Texans defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers, 30-6, at NRG Stadium.
Stroud's most recent performance garnered praise from several NFL analysts, including former Baylor Heisman Trophy winner and nine-year NFL veteran Robert Griffin III, who believes Stroud is already one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
CJ Stroud isnt just the Texans Franchise QB. He is a TOP 10 QB in the NFL already. The numbers back it up, the film backs it up and he passes the eye test with FLYING COLORS. @CJ7STROUD pic.twitter.com/lKH72QJ3qh
— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) October 1, 2023
Moreover, after Stroud led the Houston past the Jacksonville Jaguars, 37-17, in Week 3, completing 66.7% of his passes for 280 yards and two touchdowns, Texans legend and former three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt said the future looks bright in H-Town, as Stroud has looked "poised, confident and in control," even as a rookie.
Its VERY early, but CJ Stroud is a rookie quarterback who has been playing without the majority of his starting offensive line, under heavy pressure and yet hes been poised, confident and in control.
— JJ Watt (@JJWatt) September 24, 2023
Again, its early, but Houston has to be excited right now.
Looks like the NFL has learned what Ohio State fans have known for years. C.J. Stroud is that dude. I have been thrilled to watch him succeed in the first four weeks, and I hope to see him continue to ball out the rest of the way. If he does, could back-to-back NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year awards be on the horizon for former Buckeyes?
SONG OF THE DAY. "Small Town" by John Mellencamp.
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