Welcome to the Skull Session.
Ohio State. Penn State. Scarlet the Shoe.
TIME TO SCARLET THE SHE SATURDAY
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) October 16, 2023
Last time we played Penn State at home was electric pic.twitter.com/jF6GrOntAO
Let's have a good Tuesday, shall we?
THE BIG TEN (B)EAST(S). How good are Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan, the beasts of the Big Ten East? According to Bill Connelly's SP+ metrics, the answer is "Very."
SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
After Week 7 in college football, Michigan and Ohio State were the top two teams in the predictive rankings, while Penn State was ranked as the ninth-best team in college football. Here is a breakdown for each program:
Michigan
Michigan enters Week 8 with the best SP+ score in the FBS. With the No. 9 offense, No. 3 defense and No. 7 special teams, the Wolverines are 0.9 points ahead of the Buckeyes, who have been ranked No. 1 overall a handful of times in 2023. Michigan has not faced a top-50 team after seven weeks, as its best opponents have been No. 52 Rutgers, No. 53 Nebraska and No. 56 Minnesota. Rutgers (No. 76) has the best offense, while Nebraska (No. 21) has the best defense.
Ohio State
With the No. 10 offense, No. 4 defense and No. 17 special teams, Ohio State enters Week 8 as the second-best team in the SP+. Of the team's six wins, two teams – Notre Dame and Maryland – are ranked among the 32 best in America. The Buckeyes defeated the No. 10 Irish in South Bend, Indiana, and the No. 32 Terrapins in Columbus. Notre Dame has the best offense (No. 20) and defense (No. 5) the Buckeyes have faced in 2023.
Penn State
Penn State is the third Big Ten team in the top 10, combining the No. 24 offense, No. 2 defense and No. 101 special teams to be ranked as the No. 8 overall team. The Nittany Lions have beaten two teams inside the top 50 this season, No. 47 West Virginia and No. 37 Iowa, who has the No. 1 defense in the SP+. The Mountaineers (No. 53) have the best offense Penn State has seen.
Saturday's Ohio State-Penn State matchup will be the first meeting involving the three teams this season. Penn State and Michigan will meet Nov. 11 at Beaver Stadium in State College, Pennsylvania, and the Buckeyes and Wolverines will meet in the 119th edition of The Game on Nov. 25 in Ann Arbor.
Whoever comes out on top from those three matchups will be the definitive Beast of the Big Ten East.
ROAD WARRIOR? FAR FROM IT. Drew Allar is NOT a Road Warrior.
In home games at Beaver Stadium this season, Allar has completed 84 of 115 passes (73%) for 857 yards and 11 touchdowns in Penn State's wins over West Virginia, Delaware, Iowa and UMass. On the road, he has completed 34 of 66 passes (51.5%) for 397 yards and one score in Penn State's victories against Illinois and Northwestern.
See the difference?
After seven weeks, Illinois ranks 81st and 72nd in the FBS at 398.6 yards and 28.1 points allowed per game, while Northwestern ranks 49th and 78th at 368.2 yards and 28.8 points allowed per game. Those numbers don't scream dominance. Still, Allar had issues moving the ball down the field in the matchups.
Here's a THANKS, CAPTAIN OBVIOUS: Ohio State has a better defense than Illinois and Northwestern. The Buckeyes rank sixth and third in the FBS at 269.4 yards and 10.2 points allowed.
Therefore, it stands to reason that Allar could have the same issues he presented versus the Illini and Wildcats when Penn State travels to Columbus. That likelihood could increase if head coach James Franklin, offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich and Allar don't test the Buckeyes with the deep ball. Without it, the Nittany Lions will have fewer chances for “explosives” (i.e., Ohio State's undoing vs. Michigan and Georgia in 2022).
Allar ranks dead last in the Big Ten with only 12 attempts of 20 yards or more this season. Of those 12, he attempted five vs. UMass and completed one, a 30-yard touchdown to tight end Theo Johnson. He also has the highest percentage of passes to travel 10 yards or less in the conference at 47.3%.
Those are unexpected numbers for a quarterback with a cannon for an arm.
Ohio State should be ready for Penn State and Allar to throw over the top on Saturday. If Penn State decides not to, expect Ohio State to be aggressive all afternoon. But hopefully not too aggressive. We've all seen how that can turn out for opposing quarterbacks against a Jim Knowles scheme. I'd prefer not to see it happen again this weekend.
THE BEST WR PROSPECT EVER? In 2022, Marvin Harrison Jr. collected 77 receptions for 1,263 yards and 14 touchdowns. After the season, he was named the Big Ten Receiver of the Year, a runner-up for the Biletnikoff Award and a unanimous All-American. Across six appearances in 2023, the 6-foot-4, 205-pound pass catcher has recorded 31 receptions for 604 yards and five touchdowns.
Harrison is goooooooooood.
But is Harrison the best wide receiver prospect ever?
Spencer Hall said so in a recent episode of ESPN's "Big Dumb Football" on YouTube:
Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins and Ja'Marr Chase.
Whew.
Those are some comps.
"Harrison has all one looks for in a No. 1 wide receiver," NFL analyst Daniel Jeremiah wrote in July. "He has a big frame, outstanding speed and natural hands. He has a unique blend of power and grace. He can win off the line in his release with pure speed or his hands. He changes tempo in his routes down the field and can access another gear when the ball is in the air. He tracks the ball easily over his shoulder and is adept at adjusting to throws on his back shoulder. After the catch, he has the speed to pull away and the lower body strength to break tackles. His competitive nature showed up the entire (2022) season."
Is Harrison the best wide receiver prospect of all-time?
He could be.
Goodness, Marv pic.twitter.com/sRdLmlYrP4
— Eleven Warriors (@11W) October 14, 2023
Ah, screw it – yes, yes, he is.
Sue me!
OLYMPIC VILLAGE. Iowa women's basketball is in the record books. On Sunday, Iowa hosted DePaul in an exhibition game at Kinnick Stadium and set the women's basketball attendance record with 55,646 fans in the stands. The previous record was 29,619 at the 2002 national championship game between UConn and Oklahoma.
And there it is! The #Hawkeyes celebrate @IowaWBB and women's sports and set a new NCAA women's basketball game attendance record. pic.twitter.com/xZQFV2UWvh
— Big Ten Women's Basketball (@B1Gwbball) October 15, 2023
Caitlin Clark provided those people a lot to root for in the matchup, as the 2023 Naismith National Player of the Year collected 34 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists in the Hawkeyes' 94-71 win over the Blue Demons.
Take the shot, hear them roar #Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/vpR4Gya0Ck
— Iowa Women's Basketball (@IowaWBB) October 15, 2023
Players and coaches from Iowa and DePaul also participated in “The Wave,” a tradition where fans at Kinnick wave to patients and their families who are watching games through the windows at the Stead Family Children’s Hospital. Proceeds from the game were directed to the hospital, and a check for $250,000 was presented during a timeout.
It's time for the first-ever @IowaWBB Wave. pic.twitter.com/oxpKhbEUfl
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) October 15, 2023
“Before the game, I talked to (the team) about this being a historic day for us,” Iowa head coach Lisa Bluder said. “We were playing for more than ourselves. Playing for the university, the Children’s Hospital. We talked about playing for everybody else and not ourselves.”
First and foremost, it rocks that the "Crossover at Kinnick" was a success.
Secondly, I wonder how Ohio State sports, particularly its women's sports, will think outside the box and take chances to replicate that success in Columbus. Now that Iowa has set an impressive precedent, Ohio State women's basketball head coach Kevin McGuff said he'd like the Buckeyes to follow suit.
“As our fan base has grown, and the interest in the city and community has expanded, I would love for us to get creative and to try some things like that,” McGuff said at the program's media day. “I think it would be very well received here.”
I agree with Coach.
The support for Ohio State women's basketball was incredible last season as it had its best start ever and made a memorable run to the Elite Eight. Ohio State would be smart to capitalize on the increased interest and take risks that could expand that interest even further. I am excited to see how it all turns out for the Buckeyes.
Could we see 55,647 fans in the Shoe to watch Ohio State next fall?
SONG OF THE DAY. "Don't Stop Me Now" by Queen.
CUT TO THE CHASE. A $1.4 million speeding ticket surprised a Georgia man before officials clarified the situation... Georgia TE Brock Bowers is having ankle surgery. He likely will be sidelined at least a month... Bills running back Damien Harris released from the hospital a day after hurting his neck... 12,952 cereal boxes topple like dominoes in Detroit... MLB's first woman to serve as GM departs Marlins.
