Skull Session: Ohio State Could Fall in the CFP Rankings, Jordan Hancock is the Buck of The Week and Ohio State Will Wear Alternate Gray Uniforms vs. Michigan State

By Chase Brown on November 7, 2023 at 5:00 am
Carson Hinzman and Marvin Harrison Jr.
Vincent Carchietta – USA TODAY Sports
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Welcome to the Skull Session.

Like Jay-Z and Swizz Beatz, Ohio State is on to the next one.

Let's have a good Tuesday, shall we?

 FALL, FALL, FALL? On Oct. 31, Ohio State debuted as the No. 1 team in the CFP Poll ahead of Georgia, Michigan and Florida State. CFP committee chair Boo Corrigan said the Buckeyes earned the rank because of their stellar résumé, which includes top-10 wins over Notre Dame in South Bend, Indiana, and Penn State in Columbus.

Seven days later, Ohio State's résumé did not worsen but improved with a 35-16 win over Rutgers – the same team the Worldwide Leader in Sports labeled as a marquee win for Michigan in last week's CFP show. Still, the Buckeyes could fall in the new CFP rankings on Tuesday, Heather Dinich wrote Monday:

Flip a coin as to whether the committee will swap Ohio State and Georgia; that's how close the debate will be.

Here's an instant prediction following Saturday's games for who will move up or move down among the top 12 and what needs to happen the rest of this season for each of those teams to reach the playoff.

1. GEORGIA (PREVIOUS CFP RANK: 2)

WHY THEY COULD MOVE UP: The Bulldogs improved their résumé with the win against No. 12 Mizzou on Saturday. Meanwhile, last week's CFP No. 1 Ohio State, which beat an unranked Rutgers team (6-3), had one of its best victories — against Notre Dame — somewhat devalued when the Fighting Irish suffered their third loss at Clemson. Georgia found a way to win again without injured tight end Brock Bowers, and its defense won the turnover battle. The committee might just deem Georgia a better team, period.

WHY THEY COULD STAY NO. 2: Like Ohio State, Georgia had to overcome a first-half deficit and rely on its defense. It didn't help Georgia that Florida lost at home to Arkansas, the Gators' fourth defeat of the season. One of the reasons Georgia was No. 2 is that the committee valued its wins against Kentucky and Florida, which were better than anything Michigan had on its résumé but still not as good as what Ohio State had posted. It's also unclear how much the committee will truly value Saturday's win against the Tigers until it reveals where Mizzou is ranked following the loss.

PATH TO THE PLAYOFF: If Georgia doesn't move up this week, it will have ample opportunity in each of the next two weeks with back-to-back games against ranked opponents in No. 10 Ole Miss at home and at No. 17 Tennessee. As long as Georgia wins the SEC East, it will have a shot at the top four; but if the Bulldogs don't win the SEC, their playoff fate will be up for debate.

2. OHIO STATE (PREVIOUS CFP RANK: 1)

WHY THEY COULD MOVE DOWN: For a half, Ohio State didn't pass the so-called eye test, going 0-for-5 on third down. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., whom committee chair Boo Corrigan specifically mentioned last week as having impressed his group, was held to four catches for 25 yards for the game. All against a one-dimensional team Rutgers coach Greg Schiano called "a work in progress." And as good as the Buckeyes' defense was, it was also the first time in the past four games it allowed more than 260 yards. If the committee flips Ohio State and Georgia this week, its biggest justification would likely be that the Bulldogs simply played better.

WHY THEY COULD STAY NO. 1: Even with Notre Dame's loss, the Irish could still be a top-25 team. If they are, the Buckeyes boast the best résumé in the country as an unbeaten team with two top-25 wins (Notre Dame and Penn State). Ohio State's defense, also lauded by Corrigan last week, still hasn't allowed any opponent more than 17 points this season.

PATH TO THE PLAYOFF: Avoid a home upset against Minnesota on Nov. 18 and win the regular-season finale at Michigan. Ohio State finished in the top four last year without winning the Big Ten East because its victories against Penn State and Notre Dame impressed the committee — and because USC fell out of the fourth spot after losing to Utah in its conference title game. If Ohio State doesn't win the Big Ten this year, it's going to have a much more difficult time proving to the committee it is "unequivocally" one of the four best teams in the country — especially if Florida State is still undefeated, Texas finishes as a one-loss conference champion, the SEC champ is in and the Pac-12 has a one-loss champ.

Yes. No. Maybe.

Do I like it when Ohio State is ranked No. 1? Yes.

Does it matter if Ohio State is ranked No. 1 with four polls left? No.

Will Ohio State fall in the CFP Poll on Tuesday? Maybe.

Whatever the outcome, Ohio State is one of the best teams in college football. The SP+ and FPI confirm that, as do the rankings compiled by the CFP committee, the Associated Press and the American Football Coaches Association.

SP+

  1. Michigan: 30.5 overall score, 39.9 (5) offense, 9.7 (1) defense, 0.4 (5) special teams
  2. Georgia: 27.0 overall score, 39.8 (6) offense, 13.2 (5) defense, 0.4 (8) special teams
  3. Ohio St.: 25.5 overall score, 36.3 (16) offense, 11.1 (3) defense, 0.3 (23) special teams
  4. Oregon: 25.2 overall score, 44.4 (2) offense, 19.2 (21) defense, 0.0 (71) special teams
  5. Penn St.: 22.1 overall score, 34.1 (21) offense, 12.2 (4) defense, 0.2 (34) special teams

COLLEGE FOOTBALL POWER INDEX

  1. Ohio St.: 27.3 FPI, 39.9% win out, 76.8% make CFP, 44.2% make CFP final, 25.1% win CFP final
  2. Michigan: 27.0 FPI, 23.3% win out, 43.0% make CFP, 24.9% make CFP final, 14.0% win CFP final
  3. Oregon: 25.3 FPI, 50% win out, 37.6% make CFP, 19.5% make CFP final, 9.5% win CFP final
  4. Penn St.: 25.1 FPI, 44.6% win out, 21.3% make CFP, 11.1% make CFP final, 5.8% win CFP final
  5. Alabama: 24.3 FPI, 40.2% win out, 41.4% make CFP, 21.4% make CFP final, 10.9% win CFP final

ALLSTATE PLAYOFF PREDICTOR

  1. Ohio State vs. Michigan State: 98% chance to win
  2. Ohio State vs. Minnesota: 97% chance to win
  3. Ohio State at Michigan: 45% chance to win

BOWL PROJECTIONS FOR OHIO STATE

  1.  ESPN: Cotton Bowl vs. Texas (Kyle Bonagura) and Orange Bowl vs. Louisville (Mark Schlabach)
  2.  CBS: Orange Bowl vs. Louisville
  3.  Bleacher Report: Orange Bowl vs. Louisville
  4.  247Sports: Rose Bowl / CFP semifinal vs. Florida State
  5.  Athlon Sports: Orange Bowl vs. Louisville

The OG truth of the CFP remains: Win and you're in. If Ohio State can defeat Michigan State, Minnesota and Michigan before a trip to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game, the Buckeyes will compete for a national championship in 2023.

Just keep winning. Just keep winning. Just keep winning.

 THIS AND THAT. Another Skull Session, another This and That™.

Let's ride.

Jordan Hancock has been one of Ohio State's most improved players in 2023. In the team's 35-16 win over Rutgers on Saturday, Hancock collected five tackles and a 93-yard pick-six — a performance that earned him Player of the Game awards from Eleven Warriors and Jim Knowles. He also was named Ohio State's "Buck of the Week" on Monday.

Ohio State radio PBP announcer Paul Keels has been the “Voice of the Buckeyes” since 1998. On Sunday, Keels filled in for veteran Cleveland Browns radio play-by-play announcer Jim Donovan — who has been on medical leave for leukemia treatment since September — and called the Cleveland Browns' 27-0 win over the Arizona Cardinals.

Marvin Harrison Jr. has been gooooooood the last five weeks — like, 35 catches, 578 yards and seven touchdowns gooooooood.

After C.J. Stroud's record-breaking performance on Sunday, the NFL updated its Twitter header to a picture of the former Ohio State quarterback. Great move, National Football League. Great move.

That's all for This and That™.

Skull Session readers, we move.

 PAINT IT GRAY. The Buckeyes will wear its gray alternate uniforms vs. Michigan State on Saturday. I, for one, am excited to see Ohio State in action as it sports the one school color Nike (seemingly) avoided for several seasons.

On Monday, Ohio State tweeted a sneak peek of the alternates:

Over the summer, Ohio State tweeted a full look at the alternates:

Yeah, those are sweet.

From an Ohio State press release:

The newest alternates will feature steel-gray jersey and pants, a slightly darker shade than the traditional uniform pants, and will feature Ohio State's home stripe pattern on the sleeves and pants. The jerseys pop with scarlet numbers and white edging on the front, back and shoulders, in addition to scarlet Big Ten and Nike logos, and the primary Ohio State logo at the crest of the chest. All-gray socks will complete the look. The team will wear its traditional helmet.

Ohio State has worn alternate uniforms 33 times since 2009. The Buckeyes are 26-7 wearing an alternate uniform, including seven consecutive victories inside Ohio Stadium. Overall, Ohio State is 15-2 all-time wearing alternates in the Shoe.

With how bad Michigan State is in 2023, the Buckeyes are all but guaranteed to improve to 27-7, eight consecutive wins and 16-2 in the Shoe with a win over the Spartans on Saturday.

 SLOOPY'S BBQ COMPANY IS THE OFFICIAL BARBECUE OF THE ELEVEN DUBGATE.

sloopy's bbq
The official BBQ of Eleven Dubgate 11.

Sloopy's BBQ Company is an award-winning, all-wood-fired, artisan barbecue restaurant that prides itself on scratch-made sauces and sides.

The delicious smoked meats are sprinkled with scratch-made rubs and glazed with artisanal sauces. If you have never had Sloopy's before, great news – you can rectify that this Saturday at the Eleven Warriors charity tailgate being held behind the Varsity Club.

Doors open at 3 p.m. for our 11th Eleven Dubgate, which will be held on Saturday before Ohio State's matchup with Michigan State. This event relies on your donations, which will benefit Special Olympics Olentangy. Cash and Venmo (@OSSOSTORM) are both accepted.

If you cannot attend Eleven Dubgate 11 but would still like to donate, use Venmo and type "Dubgate" in the text field. Every donation is appreciated.

 SONG OF THE DAY. "Fall, Fall, Fall" - CAAMP.

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