Welcome to the Skull Session.
Quinshon Judkins – good at football.
Q put em to sleep @quinshon_ pic.twitter.com/j5bZvmsPPG
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) September 23, 2024
Have a good Wednesday.
THE COMPUTERS! It's Wednesday. You know what that means. It's time to examine Ohio State's place in the SP+ and College Football Power Index. It's also time to hear what Heather Dinich, the person most connected to the College Football Playoff selection committee, thinks about the Buckeyes.
This week, Ohio State fell behind Texas in the SP+ and stood pat behind Texas and Alabama in the College Football Power Index. Here's a closer look at the Buckeyes' numbers in both metrics:
SP+
| TEAM | SP SCORE | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | SPECIAL TEAMS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEXAS | 31.2 | 44.8 (2) | 13.6 (9) | -0.1 (80) |
| OHIO STATE | 30.9 | 38.5 (11) | 7.9 (1) | 0.3 (12) |
| ALABAMA | 30.7 | 44.2 (2) | 13.4 (6) | -0.1 (84) |
| OLE MISS | 30.7 | 44.9 (1) | 14.4 (11) | 0.1 (50) |
| GEORGIA | 29.9 | 40.5 (7) | 10.9 (3) | 0.4 (4) |
College Football Power Index
| TEAM | FPI | WIN OUT | WIN CONF | MAKE CFP | WIN CFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEXAS | 29.1 | 26.9% | 40.0% | 93.0% | 23.9% |
| ALABAMA | 28.0 | 10.2% | 20.0% | 82.9% | 16.3% |
| OHIO STATE | 26.2 | 19.0% | 47.8% | 78.6% | 13.7% |
| GEORGIA | 24.0 | 1.3% | 6.9% | 70.9% | 8.2% |
| TENNESSEE | 23.8 | 7.0% | 13.5% | 80.0% | 9.0% |
Heather Dinich's CFP Power Rankings
No. 1 Texas, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Tennesee, NO. 4 OHIO STATE
WHY THEY COULD BE HERE: Ohio State still doesn't have a playoff résumé that compares to Texas, Georgia or Tennessee -- all of which have nonconference wins against ranked Power 4 opponents. After a slow start against Marshall that resulted in a 28-14 halftime lead, Ohio State separated itself and overpowered the Thundering Herd with an abundance of talent.
WHY THEY COULD BE HIGHER: There could be committee members who reward Ohio State for the playmakers at nearly every position — running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, receivers Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes racked up 9 yards per carry and 569 total yards. If Ohio State is ranked ahead of Tennessee, it's because the Buckeyes are oozing talent, not because of whom they beat.
WHY THEY COULD BE LOWER: ... Ohio State's schedule strength to this point ranks No. 127 in the country, according to ESPN Analytics, with three straight home games against unranked Group of 5 opponents Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall.
NEED TO KNOW: Ohio State probably won't face a ranked opponent until its Oct. 12 trip to Oregon, which will be critical for both the conference and playoff races. The Buckeyes will have plenty of opportunities to compensate for a slow September start heading into the first CFP ranking of the season. In addition to the trip to Autzen, Ohio State also goes to Penn State on Nov. 2 — the last Saturday before the committee's first Tuesday ranking.
No matter how you shake it, Ohio State is one of the best teams in America. After completing its cupcake-filled non-conference schedule, the Buckeyes will finally get to prove that this weekend against a decent Michigan State team this weekend.
NOT UP TO STANDARD. ICYMI: Ohio State did not name a Defensive Player of the Game after the team's win over Marshall.
: @quinshon_ & @TreVeyonH4 pic.twitter.com/YYZswzFONl
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) September 22, 2024
: @LorenzoStyles_ pic.twitter.com/S5se8yh4zS
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) September 22, 2024
On Tuesday, Jim Knowles said there was a reason for that.
"You've got to speak truth," Knowles said. "While we had some Champions, we had no one that we thought really showed a Silver Bullet of the Game performance."
The Eleven Warriors staff agrees with Knowles' assessment. On Sunday, we picked Quinshon Judkins, TreVeyon Henderson and Emeka Egbuka as Ohio State's Three Stars of the Game. (If we were to have selected a defensive player, it would have been Lathan Ransom, who led Ohio State with eight tackles while collecting one tackle for loss and one forced fumble).
THREE STARS OF THE GAME: MARSHALL
— Eleven Warriors (@11W) September 22, 2024
Quinshon Judkins: 14 carries, 173 yards, 2 TD
TreVeyon Henderson: 6 carries, 76 yards, 2 TD
Emeka Egbuka: 5 catches, 117 yards, 1 TDhttps://t.co/Vf0smD5sxT pic.twitter.com/cXUYkgg73d
While Knowles expected more from the Silver Bullets versus Marshall, he also expected more from himself.
"Our expectation has to be perfection and domination all the time," he said. I thought we had a slow start. I thought I could have done a better job."
Knowles said the primary source of his frustration came from the defense's lack of success on third down. He explained that Ohio State could have kept Marshall out of the end zone had it made a couple of stops after the bells rang in the Shoe. The third-year coordinator said the Buckeyes executed better in those situations in the second half.
"We did what we're supposed to do," Knowles said.
STOP RATE IS BACK. While Knowles shared his complaints and grievances over Ohio State's defensive performance on Saturday, Ohio State still possesses one of the best defenses in college football.
How do I know that?
| TEAM | STOP RATE | PTS/DRIVE |
|---|---|---|
| TEXAS | 89.6% | 0.43 |
| TENNESSEE | 89.5% | 0.53 |
| OHIO STATE | 85.4% | 0.59 |
| ALABAMA | 85.4% | 0.59 |
| CALIFORNIA | 83.3% | 1.03 |
| ARMY | 82.4% | 0.65 |
| OLE MISS | 82.4% | 1.24 |
| NOTRE DAME | 80.9% | 0.65 |
| IOWA STATE | 80.0% | 0.80 |
| OKLAHOMA | 79.2% | 0.96 |
The eyes, chico. They never lie.
No, I know that because of the Buckeyes' stop rate, a metric Max Olson of ESPN created years ago to measure "the percentage of a defense's drives that end in punts, turnovers or turnovers on downs."
"This simple metric can offer a more accurate reflection of a defense's effectiveness in today's faster-tempo game than yards per game or points per game," Olson wrote when he still worked for The Athletic.
After four weeks, Ohio State ranks No. 3 in the nation in stop rate behind Texas and Tennessee. It also ranks ahead of Alabama, California (the Calgorithm!), Army, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Iowa State and Oklahoma.
As the weeks continue, I would expect the Buckeyes to climb the ranks and move ahead of the Longhorns and Volunteers. That's because, one, Ohio State has a more talented defense that both teams, and two, both Texas and Tennessee have some formidable SEC opponents around the corner, such as Georgia (Texas and Tennesee) and Alabama (Tennesee).
WHAT IS GRIEF, IF NOT LOVE PESERVERING? This week, Larry Lage of The Associated Press wrote a feature on Armorion Smith, a Michigan State cornerback who lost his mother, Gala Gilliam, to breast cancer in August.
With Smith's father out of the picture, the 21-year-old has become the legal guardian of his five siblings, Aleion (19), Armond (16), Avaugn (15), Arial (11) and Amira (2), all while playing Division I college football at a Power Four program. In an article that is as heartbreaking as it is hopeful, Lage offers readers a look into Smith's life one month after his mother passed.
From the Associated Press:
Armorion Smith pressed his palms together over the bridge of his nose, closed his eyes and leaned against the kitchen sink.
The 21-year-old Michigan State defensive back needed a moment in the four-bedroom, two-bathroom home he shares with five younger siblings. He has a lot on his plate, more than most college students and certainly more than most student-athletes.
His mother, Gala Gilliam, died of breast cancer a month ago and without a father in the family’s life, Smith has become the head of the household while studying criminal justice and playing major college football. He became the legal guardian for four siblings on Sept. 11.
“My cards were given to me,” Smith said softly with a steely gaze, standing on a small porch behind the home as the sun set on a recent evening. “I didn’t choose my deck of cards.”
His 19-year-old sister, Aleion, is in charge while he is gone for about 12 hours most days to be a student and athlete. Appreciating her selfless sacrifice, Smith said he hopes to help her find a way to start taking classes next semester while juggling her role with the family. Smith looks and sounds determined to help his siblings be happy, healthy and safe. His teammates watch in awe.
“I couldn’t even begin to imagine if I was in his situation,” linebacker Jordan Hall said. “He’s in a tough spot, but he is one of the strongest guys I have ever known.”
Since his mother's death, the Michigan State football team and friends have rallied around Smith. One friend, Ronnesha Freeman, created a GoFundMe for him. He has used the fund — which has surpassed over $117,000 as of Tuesday — to rent a four-bedroom home, pay off bills and provide his brothers and sisters with food and ride-hailing services (like Uber or Lyft).
The love is not lost on Smith.
“Me and my family are very happy, very appreciative and grateful,” he said. “There’s a lot of love Spartan Nation has shown us these past few months. It’s been a rough time, but to be able to take some of the stress off of my shoulders and show me a lot of love is a blessing and has warmed my heart.”
It also warms Ryan Day's heart.
When the Ohio State head coach was asked about Smith on Tuesday, he said that "he can't imagine what that challenge is like" for Smith and that he admires the Michigan State defensive back.
"I don't know all the details, so it'd be hard for me to comment on it, but from what I've heard, I have a lot of respect for that situation," Day said. "That's one of the things that kind of gets lost a little bit (in college sports). These are young men, and not everybody has the same family situation or dynamic. That's why we make sure we focus on, you know, one of our goals is to raise great young men and to be supportive of those things. Again, I don't know all the details. But I have a lot of respect (for Smith) and have thought about what that means for him and his family."
SONG OF THE DAY. "still feel" - half alive.
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