The Drought is Over
Caleb Downs has Ohio State’s first punt return touchdown since 2014.
Welcome to the Skull Session.
YOU LIKE THAT?!
@OhioStateFB @KirkCousins8 https://t.co/fgIIpGsfbX pic.twitter.com/d5QIFr1Efs
— Liam McCullough (@LiamMcCullough2) October 2, 2024
Have a good Thursday.
ALL YEAR LONG? When I think of Iowa, I think of defense.
Ryan Day does, too.
“It doesn’t matter what year you watch them,” Day said. “They play with great technique. They’re well-coached. They understand how they fit into the defense. Their pad level is low. Their hands are low. They play physical. They run to the football.”
This season, Iowa’s defense ranks No. 18 and No. 15 in yards (272.8) and points (13.75) allowed per game. Yet, according to Bill Connelly of ESPN and his SP+ model, the Hawkeyes have the top-ranked defense in college football with a 9.2 score – about 0.3 points ahead of second-ranked Ohio State.
What makes Iowa’s defense so good? Well, the Hawkeyes have defensive linemen Yahya Black and Aaron Graves, linebacker Jay Higgins and safety Xavier Nwankpa, all of whom have talent in spades. But it’s also that those players operate in a scheme Kirk Ferentz and his longtime assistant Phil Parker created and almost perfected over the past 12 years. (Parker has been on Ferentz’s staff since he took over as head coach in 1998 but became Ferentz’s defensive coordinator in 2012).
“Coach Parker does a great job at making sure they understand how they’re being attacked,” Day said. “Year after year, it’s similar in terms of the statistics and the production. They know what they’re recruiting there. They do a great job. It’s a real challenge for our offense this week.”
Chip Kelly echoed Day’s sentiment.
“They do an unbelievable job of developing players,” he said. “I think it starts in recruiting for them. They know exactly what all 11 guys’ skill sets are and what is required for them to execute the defense they deploy each week.”
While Ohio State’s offense ranks No. 5 and No. 4 in yards (534.8) and points (48.8) per game, Kelly made himself clear: the Buckeyes will be tested for all four quarters on Saturday.
“It’ll be the best-coached defense I think we’ll face all season long,” Kelly said. “It’s a challenge that you get excited about if you’re a real football guy, going against somebody like Coach Parker.”
BE AGGRESSIVE, BE BE AGGRESSIVE. Will Howard threw one interception against Michigan State. He was lucky he didn’t throw two.
In the second quarter of the Buckeyes’ win over the Spartans, Ohio State’s offense faced 3rd-and-goal from the Michigan State 3-yard line. Howard attempted to thread the football to Jeremiah Smith in the end zone; however, because he stared down Smith for his entire route, MSU defensive back Malik Spencer slid over in coverage and threw both hands in the air to intercept the pass. The ball went through his hands.
Despite the close call, Day and Kelly chose to keep the offense on the field. On the next snap, Howard found Gee Scott Jr. underneath for a 3-yard score.
Gee Scott Jr. scores Ohio State's first touchdown of the game and his first touchdown of the 2024 season. pic.twitter.com/Pr9TJG1czx
— Eleven Warriors (@11W) September 29, 2024
That touchdown was one of four times Ohio State went for it on fourth down against Michigan State, improving the team’s total of fourth-down conversion attempts this season to eight. With eight conversion attempts across 23 fourth downs faced, Day and Kelly have gone for it 34.8 percent of the time in 2024. The Buckeyes have converted on six of those eight attempts.
On Tuesday, Day said he’s been pleased with Ohio State’s success in that area. He also said the Buckeyes will continue to be aggressive on fourth down as the team works to “get as many plays as we possibly can.”
With Ohio States offense facing 4th-and-5, Will Howard and Emeka Egbuka deliver a 33-yard touchdown. pic.twitter.com/zI0A3dRTRz
— Eleven Warriors (@11W) September 29, 2024
When asked how he determines whether Ohio State should go for it on fourth down, Day said he considers several factors.
“Based on the score, based on how things are going, you’ve got to take those things into consideration,” Day said. “We do have analytics at that moment, getting information on what the chart says and what the statistics say. But sometimes you’ve got to trust your gut and trust your team based on a lot of different scenarios.”
Kelly said he looks at analytics and “the flow of the game.”
“It’s a combination of both,” Kelly said. “What are the percentages if you go for it in terms of success rate? What does that do to our team if we don’t get it? Everybody is always, ‘Hey, we’re all in, we’re all in.’ Well, you’re playing poker and you’re all in, and you only have a pair of twos; they may have a better hand than you, and that’s where the situation is. It’s easy to sit there and say, fourth down, you should go for it all the time. Well, that’s not necessarily the case.”
If my calculations are correct – 60 percent of the time, my calculations work every time –Ohio State went for it on fourth down at a combined average of about 20.7% in Day’s first five seasons as head coach. That said, I think we can expect the Buckeyes’ current percentage to drop moving forward, but not all that much.
PRO FOOTBALL FOCUS. Those who have read the Skull Session for a while know I have a love-hate relationship with Pro Football Focus. I (often) love their grades and how each of them provides a deeper look at a player’s impact in a game, but I (often) hate their articles – particularly in the offseason – because it feels like PFF discredits the Buckeyes to piss off Ohio State fans and boost their engagement.
On Tuesday, Tony Gerdeman of Buckeye Huddle asked Day to share how he feels about Pro Football Focus being the “front-facing grade for how college football players play.” The head coach provided an answer that I wanted to share here:
“I think it comes down to who’s actually doing the grading and if it’s accurate. I think it’s hard sometimes for them to know exactly what (the player’s) job responsibility was. That being said, I think generally it’s in the ballpark,” Day answered. “But I don’t know if someone who doesn’t really know what’s expected on a certain play is gonna give the same grade as a position coach who knows exactly what’s going on, so that’s kind of my take on it.”
In a follow-up question, Gerdeman asked if Day tells his players not to worry about how PFF grades their performances.
“It never really comes up, honestly,” Day said. “It’s not something our guys have quite talked about all that much.”
I found Day’s answer interesting.
While it’s good to know that PFF’s grades are “in the ballpark” for how Ohio State’s coaches grade their players, I also think it’s important to remember that PFF doesn’t have a complete understanding of what a player’s responsibilities are on a specific snap. That could be the reason we see some head-scratching grades week to week, such as TreVeyon Henderson earning a 38.8 pass-blocking grade (!) against Michigan State even though he had two blocks that led directly to Ohio State touchdowns.
Overall, I am reminded to take PFF’s grades with a grain of salt – they are a good reference tool but not the be-all and end-all.
STROUD’S GOT NEXT. On Wednesday, former Ohio State and current Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud landed on the 2024 TIME100 Next list. As part of Stroud’s nomination, Texans legend and future Pro Football Hall of Famer J.J. Watt shared this about the 22-year-old from Rancho Cucamonga, California:
In 2017, when Hurricane Harvey hit, the city of Houston was devastated. Lives were lost, homes were destroyed, and Houstonians were left not only picking up the pieces after one of the most brutal storms in history, but also picking up one another. I’ll never forget images of neighbors sitting on buckets, gathered around a portable television in a house with no walls, watching the Astros as they went on to win the World Series.
Hope.
The Astros gave them hope.
Something to look forward to, something to believe in, something to be proud of.
In 2024, C.J. Stroud is that hope.
You might think it’s because he’s coming off arguably the greatest rookie season of any quarterback in NFL history. Or because he’s helped put the Texans in legitimate Super Bowl conversations as he enters only his second season.
And you’d be right. Partially.
But it’s also the hurricane-cleanup efforts, school-supply drives, grocery giveaways, and youth camps. It’s the way he praises his teammates and projects positivity even amid adversity. It’s how he carries himself and who he is.
He is someone to believe in and someone to be proud of.
He is Houston.
That’s some high praise for Stroud, but it’s well-deserved!
SONG OF THE DAY. “Kid Again” - Jon Bellion.
CUT TO THE CHASE. Second fan files lawsuit claiming ownership of Shohei Ohtani’s 50-50 baseball... Online voting in Alaska’s Fat Bear Week contest starts after an attack killed one contestant... Michael Jordan’s 23XI and a 2nd team sue NASCAR over revenue sharing model... Pete Rose takes photo with Reds legends, signs autographs day before his death... Doctor charged in Matthew Perry's overdose death expected to plead guilty.
