Welcome to the Skull Session.
NEXT UP... Nebraska.
Next Game Up
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) October 22, 2024
WEAR SCARLET pic.twitter.com/EY0FHJk4ta
Have a good Wednesday.
THE COMPUTERS! It's Wednesday. You know what that means. It's time to examine Ohio State's place in the SP+ and College Football Power Index. This week, I'll also include a look at how ESPN Analytics views the Buckeyes' chances to win the rest of their regular-season games in 2024.
SP+
| RANK | TEAM | SP SCORE | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | SPECIAL TEAMS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OHIO STATE | 29.1 | 39.7 (8) | 11.0 (1) | 0.4 (4) |
| 2 | TEXAS | 27.4 | 40.4 (5) | 12.6 (4) | -0.3 (115) |
| 3 | OLE MISS | 26.8 | 39.8 (7) | 13.4 (6) | 0.4 (3) |
| 4 | GEORGIA | 25.6 | 39.8 (6) | 14.6 (9) | 0.4 (10) |
| 5 | OREGON | 24.6 | 42.2 (2) | 17.9 (20) | 0.3 (27) |
Ohio State's remaining 2024 opponents in the SP+: Nebraska (32), Penn State (6), Purdue (89), Northwestern (73), Indiana (12), Michigan (24)
College Football Power Index
| RANK | TEAM | FPI | WIN OUT | WIN CONF | MAKE CFP | WIN CFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OHIO STATE | 27.5 | 35.5% | 34.1% | 77.8% | 18.9% |
| 2 | TEXAS | 27.2 | 38.7% | 34.2 | 78.2% | 18.4% |
| 3 | ALABAMA | 23.2 | 31.7% | 4.2% | 43.0% | 5.1% |
| 4 | GEORGIA | 22.9 | 12.6% | 18.7% | 86.9% | 11.2% |
| 5 | OLE MISS | 22.1 | 26.1% | 2.1% | 22..0% | 2.2% |
Ohio State's remaining 2024 opponents in the College Football Power Index: Nebraska (58), Penn State (9), Purdue (110), Northwestern (78), Indiana (11), Michigan (38)
ESPN Analytics
| OPPONENT | DATE | LOCATION | MATCHUP PREDICTOR % |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEBRASKA | OCT. 26 | COLUMBUS, OH | 96.6% OHIO STATE |
| NO. 3 PENN STATE | NOV. 2 | STATE COLLEGE, PA | 68.6% OHIO STATE |
| PURDUE | NOV. 9 | COLUMBUS, OH | 99% OHIO STATE |
| NORTHWESTERN | NOV. 16 | CHICAGO, IL * | 95.5% OHIO STATE |
| NO. 13 INDIANA | NOV. 23 | COLUMBUS, OH | 77.8% OHIO STATE |
| MICHIGAN | NOV. 30 | COLUMBUS, OH | 93.9% OHIO STATE |
| * AT WRIGLEY FIELD | |||
There was some percentage movement for each of Ohio State's remaining games from this week to last week. The Buckeyes increased in favor for their matchups with Nebraska (94.7 → 96.6), Penn State (67.7 → 68.6), Northwestern (94.7 → 95.5) and Michigan (92.4 → 93.9). At the same time, their favor remained the same for Purdue (99) and decreased for Indiana (83.1 → 77.8).
Look out for the Hoosiers.
GENERATIONAL RUN INCOMING. Each time Will Howard takes the podium, I like him a little bit more.
After the Oregon game, Howard said he hopes Ohio State’s one-point loss “lights a fire under us” because he still has “all the belief in the world in this team.” Ten days later, Howard shared a similar message with the media about how the Buckeyes can (and will) bounce back from the defeat.
“We talked about how we wanted to flush that game, but we’re not gonna forget about it. It’s gonna be in the back of our heads. We’re gonna use it,” Howard said. “I feel like this is kind of the point of the season where I’m almost glad it happened now and not at the end of the season. You know, some of those issues may have gotten swept under the rug if we win that game. Now, they have to be addressed. We’re really working at cleaning up every little thing we can.
“I want to be able to look back and say this is the reason we went on a run and won a national championship. I think we’re trying to use this, in the best way, as a stepping stone. Everything is still in front of us. If nothing else, it gives us a little more extra motivation because now we know what it feels like to lose a game and walk off the field with that feeling. I can guarantee you none of us want to feel that again.”
Second paragraph, line one: “I want to be able to look back and say this is the reason we went on a run and won a national championship.”
Heck. Yes.
Fire me up.
Ohio State’s 1942 team suffered a 17-7 loss at No. 6 Wisconsin before beating Pitt, No. 13 Illinois, No. 4 Michigan and Iowa en route to a national title.
Ohio State’s 1957 team suffered an 18-14 loss in the season opener before beating Washington, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue, No. 5 Iowa, No. 19 Michigan and Oregon en route to a national title.
Ohio State’s 1961 team tied TCU 7-7 in the season opener (a tie is the same as a loss — argue with a wall) before beating UCLA, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, No. 9 Iowa, Indiana, Oregon and Michigan en route to a national title.
Ohio State’s 2014 team suffered a 35-21 loss to Virginia Tech before beating Kent State, Cincinnati, Maryland, Rutgers, Penn State, Illinois, No. 8 Michigan State, No. 25 Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan, No. 13 Wisconsin, No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Oregon en route to a College Football Playoff national title.
While almost all of those championships came in different eras of college football, each of those Ohio State teams bounced back from an early loss with a generational run toward a national title. We’ll soon see if the 2024 Ohio State team can follow suit.
"NOBODY IS WORKING HARDER." Howard’s comment that Ohio State will keep the Oregon game “in the back of our heads” and “use it” as motivation felt like a quarterback recapitulating a message his head coach has shared with his team over the past week and a half.
One of Day’s remarks on Tuesday serves as proof of that notion.
“When you come out of a game, you have to identify things that didn’t work,” he said. “We did make some adjustments. Did we need to overhaul everything? No, we don’t need to overhaul everything. But there are some things – the way we’re coaching and scheming things – we need to make adjustments for. There’s no question. But once all that settles, you realize there’s a lot of football ahead of us. … You quickly move on and realize that there are a lot of teams across the country that have taken a loss. We have to adjust and play our best football here in the second half of the season.”
The expectations are set.
Day intends to meet them.
“When you come to Ohio State, that comes with the territory,” Day said of expectations and outside noise. “A lot of people care, and I understand that. And it’s my job as the head coach to make sure that when we get into that situation again, we win the game. Trust me, nobody is working harder, and nobody felt worse coming out of that game than I did. I’m gonna do everything I can to make sure it’s right.”
I believe him!
Nah, just playing. I believe him.
A MESSAGE FROM STEVE VOGT. It’s well-known among Skull Session readers that I, Chase Brown, the Skull Session writer, am a Cleveland Guardians fan.
Life since Saturday has been difficult.
Watching the Guardians lose to the New York Yankees stunk – and that’s for several reasons. One, that Cleveland fell short of another World Series title (its last championship came in 1948); two, that the Yankees celebrated their AL pennant at Progressive Field (yuck); and three, that the Yankees (a $325 million roster) and Los Angeles Dodgers ($356 million) will battle for a World Series.
Despite all that stink, there was one positive to come from Saturday – I’m sure there were more, but it sounds more dramatic to call it one – and that was a comment I heard from Guardians manager Steven Vogt.
After Cleveland’s loss, a reporter asked Vogt this question: “You live in a world where the line between winning and losing is so thin. How hard is it not to overanalyze certain decisions when you know that one little thing could be just enough or just not enough?”
Vogt’s answer?
Stephen Vogt: Overthinking & 2nd-Guessing
— Baseball IQ (@BaseballIQ_App) October 21, 2024
"Learn the Lesson, Leave the Event."
Mistakes will happen, bad decisions will be made. All you can control is your response to them.
Stress happens in the past. Anxiety happens in the future. Stay Present. pic.twitter.com/Og3YgAvNUI
“The way I do it is I ask myself what’s true. You can write a narrative in your head and spin yourself down a negative path and beat yourself up and second-guess and go back, but what’s true is you made what you thought was the best decision in the moment and then you leave it behind. I have a mentor of mine who says, ‘Learn the lesson, leave the event.’ You leave the event behind and you learn everything you can from it, and there’s no going back. Everybody makes mistakes. Everyone makes good decisions, bad decisions or they just didn’t work. For me, it’s, ‘Learn the lesson, leave the event.’”
That quote needs to reach Ryan Day somehow. His entire Ohio State tenure has been defined by the thin line between winning and losing – and, unfortunately, through five-and-a-half years of his tenure, he’s experienced the latter far more than the former in the games that really matter.
Perhaps after yet another painful loss, Day could benefit from Vogt’s message: “Learn the lesson, leave the event.”
Heck, I think we could all benefit from that message.
Don’t you?
SONG OF THE DAY. "Mr. Roboto".- Styx.
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