Welcome to the Skull Session.
This one hurts. This one hurts real bad.
Ohio State loses another top offensive lineman to injury as Seth McLaughlin reportedly tore his Achilles on Tuesday. https://t.co/flYUKA0yP2
— Eleven Warriors (@11W) November 20, 2024
Word of the day: Pain.
THE COMPUTERS! It's Wednesday. You know what that means. It's time to examine Ohio State's place in the SP+ and College Football Power Index, as well as how ESPN Analytics views the Buckeyes' chances to win the rest of their regular-season games in 2024.
SP+
| RANK | TEAM | SP SCORE | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | SPECIAL TEAMS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OHIO STATE | 30.0 | 39.0 (6) | 9.3 (1) | 0.3 (22) |
| 2 | ALABAMA | 28.2 | 43.0 (2) | 15.0 (10) | 0.3 (29) |
| 2 | TEXAS | 28.1 | 39.7 (5) | 12.1 (4) | -0.3 (116) |
| 4 | OLE MISS | 27.6 | 40.0 (4) | 12.7 (5) (5) | 0.4 (4) |
| 5 | OREGON | 27.4 | 40.4 (3) | 14.5 (9) | 1.5 (1) |
Ohio State's remaining 2024 opponents in the SP+: Indiana (11) and Michigan (40)
College Football Power Index
| RANK | TEAM | FPI | WIN OUT | WIN CONF | MAKE CFP | WIN CFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEXAS | 26.7 | 38.9% | 39.1% | 93.0% | 19.9% |
| 2 | ALABAMA | 26.6 | 44.2% | 39.2% | 70.1% | 13.9% |
| 3 | OHIO STATE | 25.3 | 47.8% | 47.8% | 94.8% | 16.4% |
| 4 | NOTRE DAME | 24.1 | 58.6% | N/A | 68.4% | 7.4% |
| 5 | GEORGIA | 22.8 | 70.1% | 0.8% | 91.5% | 9.4% |
Ohio State's remaining 2024 opponents in the College Football Power Index: Indiana (11) and Michigan (43)
ESPN Analytics
| OPPONENT | DATE | LOCATION | MATCHUP PREDICTOR % |
|---|---|---|---|
| INDIANA | NOV. 23 | COLUMBUS, OH | 73.3% OHIO STATE |
| MICHIGAN | NOV. 30 | COLUMBUS, OH | 93.0% OHIO STATE |
It's still hard for me to believe that Indiana is in a better position to beat Ohio State than Michigan this season. That does not mean the Buckeyes can treat the Wolverines with less respect than the Hoosiers, however. They need to beat the brakes off "That Team Up North" as retribution for the past three years!
STOP RATE UPDATE. There's a new No. 1 in stop rate as Notre Dame took the crown from Ohio State this week.
| TEAM | STOP RATE | PTS/DRIVE |
|---|---|---|
| NOTRE DAME | 81.7% | 0.95 |
| OHIO STATE | 81.7% | 0.86 |
| ARMY | 80.6% | 1.18 |
| TEXAS | 79.7% | 0.94 |
| TENNESSEE | 77.8% | 1.19 |
| JAMES MADISON | 76.1% | 1.40 |
| OLE MISS | 75.2% | 1.18 |
| INDIANA | 74.5% | 1.38 |
| ALABAMA | 74.3% | 1.33 |
| SAM HOUSTON | 74.2% | 1.51 |
After Ohio State's win over Northwestern and Notre Dame's win over Virginia, the Buckeyes and Irish are now tied at the top with an 81.7% stop rate. Notre Dame claimed No. 1 over Ohio State because it's tied for the FBS lead in forced turnovers (25) and has been "excellent on third downs and in the red zone," Max Olson of ESPN wrote.
Day said Ohio State needs to improve on third downs if it wants to beat Indiana and Michigan in its final two regular-season contests – and, of course, Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game and future College Football Playoff opponents. Northwestern converted 6-of-16 third-down attempts on Saturday. In contrast, Ohio State converted 4-of-10 attempts.
"We have to get off the field on third downs on defense," Day said. "It comes down to efficiency. It comes down to the highest level of execution when you're not getting as many possessions. That's what we have to do."
Day added that Ohio State's offense maintaining drives and keeping possession of the football can help the defense become more efficient and execute better.
"It comes down to us and whether we can get off the field on third down," he said, "and keeping the drives going on offense and scoring touchdowns in the red area."
All of that will be crucial this week in Ohio State's matchup with Indiana. The Hoosiers possess the No. 2 scoring offense and No. 15 total offense in college football at 43.9 points and 453.2 yards per game. They also have the No. 8 stop rate to combine with their No. 7 scoring defense and No. 3 total defense at 13.8 points and 255.5 yards allowed per game.
PENALTIES, PENALTIES. Want to hear an absurd stat? Ohio State ranks No. 134 in opponent penalty yards per game this season. That's dead last in college football. Dead last. There could be 1,000 different reasons for that; however, I think the main reason is that Big Ten officials have been bad this season.
According to Team Rankings, Ohio State's opponents have received an average of 25.5 penalty yards per game in 2024. The next closest schools are No. 133 Penn State (31.4), No. 132 Northwestern (34), No. 131 Michigan (34.1), No. 130 Washington (35.2) and No. 129 Michigan State (35.6). See a trend there? The bottom six schools in opponent penalty yards per game hail from the Big Ten. And more programs like No. 123 UCLA (39.6), No. 105 Indiana (44.2), No. 99 Iowa (45.9), No. 98 USC (46.6), No. 90 Purdue (48.4) and No. 87 Rutgers (49.1) aren't far off.
The Big Ten has an officiating problem this season.
It appears Ohio State has experienced the worst of it!
A CALL TO ARMS. In his Tuesday press conferences, Day rarely makes an opening statement. He made an exception this week. Ahead of Ohio State's top-five showdown with Indiana, Day called upon Buckeye Nation to be loud and proud at the Horseshoe on Saturday.
“One thing that is great about being at Ohio State is you get a chance to be around the best fans in the land. I know that this week is going to be a huge opportunity for us to show the nation what the best damn fans in the land look like,” he said.
And what does that mean?
"We’ve got to be loud on third down every time they have the ball, and certainly the atmosphere is going to be tremendous,” Day said. “We’re looking forward to this week of prep and challenging our guys this week to have the best week of preparation they’ve had all season and then get after it on Saturday.”
You heard the man!
If you're in the Shoe this weekend, get loud!
SONG OF THE DAY. "Hell's Bells" - AC/DC.
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