BOOM
Ohio State lands a signing day commitments from Anthony Rogers and Epi Sitanilei.
Welcome to the Skull Session.
It's all but guaranteed that Ohio State will host a College Football Playoff game in three weeks.
Sure looks like the seniors arent going to have to have Saturdays mess as their final home game. https://t.co/zxdeM2yw1t
— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) December 4, 2024
I like the sound of that.
Have a good Wednesday.
THE COMPUTERS. It's Wednesday. It's time to examine Ohio State's place in the SP+ and College Football Power Index for the final time this season. It feels a little pointless to do this without a Big Ten Championship Game appearance this weekend, but I have to finish what I started!
SP+
| RANK | TEAM | SP SCORE | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | SPECIAL TEAMS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OHIO STATE | 28.4 | 37.3 (9) | 9.2 (1) | 0.4 (59) |
| 2 | OREGON | 28.2 | 40.8 (2) | 14.1 (8) | 1.5 (22) |
| 2 | OLE MISS | 27.2 | 37.4 (8) | 12.3 (5) | 2.1 (2) |
| 4 | TEXAS | 26.5 | 38.2 (7) | 10.0 (2) | -1.7 (117) |
| 5 | ALABAMA | 25.9 | 40.2 (3) | 15.7 (9) | 1.4 (29) |
College Football Power Index
| RANK | TEAM | FPI | WIN OUT | WIN CONF | MAKE CFP | WIN CFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEXAS | 26.5 | 61.0% | 61.0% | 100% | 23.9% |
| 2 | NOTRE DAME | 25.3 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 14.4% |
| 3 | OHIO STATE | 24.8 | 0% | 5% | 96.7% | 12.0% |
| 4 | ALABAMA | 23.9 | 0% | 0% | 30.1% | 2.3% |
| 5 | GEORGIA | 21.6 | 39.0% | 39.0% | 99.6% | 10.1% |
Because the SP+ and College Football Power Index were included in the Skull Session each Wednesday this season, I can look at how the metrics shifted from August to December. Here's something to note as the Buckeyes prepare for the postseason: Ohio State never fell below No. 3 in SP+ and No. 4 in the College Football Power Index this fall.
I know it didn't look like a championship team this past weekend, but the Buckeyes have the roster to win a title. I think Oregon, Texas and Georgia are the other championship contenders – the first two more than the third, but it's hard to count out Kirby Smart in the playoffs.
THE $37.3 MILLION QUESTION. Should Ohio State fire Ryan Day?
That’s the question I’ve been asked what feels like 37.3 million times since Saturday – the same number of dollars the university would owe Day if it chose to fire him after this season.
My honest answer?
I don’t know.
On one hand, Day is 66-10 as Ohio State’s head coach. On the other, Day is 1-4 in The Game. There are also a lot of moving parts beyond those two facts, such as buyouts, revenue-sharing, the transfer portal and more. I’m not sure I’ve found the words to articulate how all of that stuff plays a role in Day’s future here, but thankfully, former Ohio State linebacker Bobby Carpenter did in a recent conversation with Mike Greenberg and Paul Finebaum on Get Up.
“I don’t know if I can get all the way there, Greeny, because there’s so many things that have changed here in the last couple of seasons,” Carpenter said of the Buckeyes moving on from Day as head coach. “I think he needs to have a strong showing (in the College Football Playoff). … It needs to be akin to that 2022 season, where they played Georgia in the Peach Bowl and handled themselves very well. They were a field goal away from winning that game and potentially going to a national championship. But there are so many moving parts.
“The players are going to be paid $20 million next year. There’d be buyouts on both sides. There are financial implications that have never been there before, and you’re talking about a guy who’s won a ton of games and had a lot of success. He has to find a way to beat Michigan – that is undoubtedly true – but I think that this team has a lot of juice, and we talked about them having one of the best rosters (in college football), so I think they can make a deep run, especially if they get one of those early home games.”
In the Tuesday Skull Session, I mentioned that Ohio State has the third-best odds to win the national title (+400) behind Oregon (+350) and Texas (+380), according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Knowing this, Carpenter said it would be smart for Buckeye Nation to adopt a wait-and-see approach for Day as he and his team prepare themselves for a postseason run.
“There are people who still want him fired, even though there will be a College Football Playoff,” he said. “The national championship is still there. I understand the goal is to beat Michigan. That’s a huge piece of it. And to win the Big Ten. … But yes, there were people who were ready to move on, hire an interim coach, coach the playoff and move forward. I don’t know if that’s necessarily the prudent thing to do. I don’t think you will see a ton of movement this year in college football with their head coaches and, like, let’s see the ending of this movie before we are ultimately ready to judge what it looks like.”
What gives Carpenter confidence Ohio State can still win it all this season?
“This team was one of the most talented in college football,” he said. “You look at all the pieces that they had coming back – and losing to Michigan at home is inexplicable, and it’s honestly unacceptable as well – but you’ve looked at them (as the most talented team). The best team in the country has been Oregon. They’re undefeated. They are spotless right now. (Ohio State) lost by one point, really by one second, on the road there, so it’s a difficult situation. But I think it’s a game you can win. I honestly think that there’s not a team in college football Ohio State can’t still beat.”
Well, then. I guess there’s only one thing left to do…
“YOU TAKE YOUR L, AND YOU MOVE ON.” Was Baker Mayfield the first college football player to plant a flag on his opponent’s field? It’s hard to imagine he would be. Still, Mayfield is the first player that comes to mind when I think of flag planting. He could be yours, too. I’m sure we all remember the former Oklahoma quarterback doing it after he led the Sooners to a 31-16 win in Columbus on Sept. 9, 2017.
7 years ago today: Baker Mayfield planted the flag in the middle of The Shoe.
— The REF (@KREFsports) September 9, 2024
Youre still a legend for this, Baker! pic.twitter.com/IjFoldkaOC
The Buckeyes had another flag-planting debacle this past weekend, as Ohio State meleed with Michigan after their three-point loss to the Wolverines. (While I won’t rehash all the details here, I will recommend the in-depth breakdown Andy Anders posted to our website earlier this week.) The teams weren’t alone in their flag-planting brawls, as Florida attempted to do it at Florida State, and Arizona State tried to do it at Arizona (with a pitchfork instead of a flag).
All of those situations prompted reporters to ask Mayfield about the trend on Sunday. The current Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback didn’t condone the violence that occurred but said he has no problem with flag-planting in college football.
Baker Mayfield was asked about the four flag planting incidents during college rivalry weekend. It was something he did at Ohio State in 2017. College football is meant to have rivalries. Thats like the Big 12 banning the horns down signal. Just let the boys play. pic.twitter.com/XCLmjvUrDQ
— JennaLaineESPN (@JennaLaineESPN) December 2, 2024
“OU-Texas does it every time they play,” Mayfield said. “It’s not anything special. You take your L, and you move on. I’ll leave it at that.”
He didn’t quite leave it at that, as he did add another comment later: “College football is meant to have rivalries. That’s like the Big 12 banning the ‘Horns Down’ signal. Just let the boys play.”
I agree with Mayfield.
While I appreciate Jack Sawyer and the Buckeyes defending their turf from another Michigan flag planting – the Wolverines also did after their road win in 2022 – I think it’s also fair to ask: Where was that energy and passion during the 60 minutes of game time? Sawyer had it. A few others had it. But collectively, the Buckeyes didn’t have the intensity required to end the Wolverines' win streak against them. That, to me, is the most frustrating part of the whole flag-planting debacle now four days later.
THE LAST DANCE. This week, Jeremiah Smith changed his X profile picture to a photo of Michael Jordan at a Chicago Bulls practice in the 1990s:
I don’t know the reason(s) Smith changed his profile picture to that. But here’s what it made me think of: In the seventh episode of “The Last Dance,” a Netflix documentary about Jordan and the Bulls’ pursuit of a sixth championship in eight seasons, the final scenes featured an emotional moment for the NBA legend.
“Winning has a price, and leadership has a price,” Jordan said when asked about pushing his teammates toward greatness. “I pull people along when they didn’t want to be pulled. I challenge people when they don’t want to be challenged. … You ask all my teammates, ‘The one thing about MJ, he never asked me to do something that he didn’t f—ing do.'”
Jordan started to tear up as his guard continued to rise. Before telling the cameras he needed a break from filming, he ended the episode with one final explanation.
“I’m only doing it because it is who I am,” Jordan said. “That’s how I played the game. That was my mentality. If you don’t want to play that way, don’t play that way… Break.”
Now, it's a lot to ask a 19-year-old to pull people along and challenge people when they don't want to be challenged, but Smith is no ordinary 19-year-old:
When you value and respect something, you give everything for it.
— Jeremiah Smith (@Jermiah_Smith1) December 2, 2024
SONG OF THE DAY. "Creature" - half-alive.
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