Welcome to the Skull Session.
Jeremiah Smith – good at football.
FWAA Freshman -, @Jermiah_Smith1 pic.twitter.com/IC2l8dNURW
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) January 14, 2025
Have a good Wednesday.
ONE LAST TIME… It’s Wednesday. How about one last look at SP+, the College Football Power Index and how ESPN Analytics views Ohio State’s matchup with Notre Dame in the national championship game?
SP+
- No. 1 Ohio State: 31.1 overall, 39.1 (3) offense, 8.4 (4) defense, 0.4 (57) special teams
- No. 5 Notre Dame: 25.2 overall, 38.4 (6) offense, 12.7 (5) defense, -0.4 (84) special teams
College Football Power Index
- No. 1 Ohio State: 27.6 FPI
- No. 2 Notre Dame: 25.8 FPI
ESPN Analytics
- Ohio State: 55.4%
- Notre Dame: 44.6%
Also, FWIW, the SP+ score projection for the national championship game is Ohio State 27.6, Notre Dame 21.7. According to consensus lines from The Action Network, Ohio State is an 8.5-point favorite (after opening as a 9.5-point favorite) in the contest. With that spread and an over/under total of 45.5, oddsmakers see a similar outcome to SP+, with the Buckeyes projected to beat the Irish with a score of 27-19.
“WE CANNOT HAVE THAT IN THIS GAME.” Ohio State’s Cotton Bowl win over Texas started similarly to its College Football Playoff victories over Tennessee and Oregon – until it didn’t. The offense marched down the field and scored a touchdown, and the defense recorded back-to-back stops.
However, instead of a second touchdown on the Buckeyes’ next possession, a TreVeyon Henderson unsportsmanlike conduct penalty derailed the drive and halted the team’s momentum. From there, the offense continued to shoot itself in the foot, as holding penalties on Emeka Egbuka and Josh Fryar hindered two of the following three possessions, all of which ended with Joe McGuire and the punt team on the field.
While Henderson redeemed himself with a 75-yard touchdown reception at the end of the second half, Ohio State’s first three drives out of halftime ended with an interception and a pair of punts. Before McGuire’s second boot – his sixth and final boot of the game – Austin Siereveld received an unnecessary roughness penalty when he shoved a Texas defender after the whistle for a 15-yard Carnell Tate catch.
Quick math tells me that’s four penalties for 50 yards.
Quick math cannot tell me how many points those penalties cost Ohio State.
Ryan Day thinks it was a lot.
“We’re disappointed that we really let four drives get away with penalties,” Day said Sunday. “It sent us way behind the sticks, and we cannot have that in this game (against Notre Dame). This a team here that we’re about to play that has been unbelievable creating turnovers and then creating scores after their turnovers. Efficiency is going to be something that we’ve got to do a much better job of in this game if we’re going to win it.”
Later in his Zoom press conference, Day said, “The story of this past game for us on offense was the self-inflicted wounds that set us back.” Without them, Day believes Ohio State could have had a more comfortable lead late in the fourth quarter, meaning the Buckeyes wouldn’t have needed a goal-line stand and Sawyer’s scoop-and-score to win the Cotton Bowl. (I understand what he means, but also, that scoop-and-score was incredible and I am thankful to have witnessed it.)
Day then reiterated that Ohio State must play its “best game” to beat Notre Dame.
“It’s a very, very good team,” he said. “They are a resilient team. They play well together. I think Riley Leonard is a tremendous leader, a tremendous player and a winner. Their coaching staff does a great job. I’ve got a lot of respect for their players and their coaches. This is going to be a complete battle, and we know that. We’ve got to play our best game this season in the last one.”
Of course, Ohio State’s “best game” involves more than limiting penalties and capitalizing off the opponent’s penalties. However, it bears mentioning that the officials who called the national championship game are the same ones who called the Fiesta Bowl between Penn State and Boise State. In that game, the Nittany Lions were penalized 10 times for 98 yards, while the Broncos were penalized 13 times for 90 yards. Therefore, it will be crucial the Buckeyes don’t allow the referees to have another Flag Fest in Atlanta.
Eh, but who am I kidding? Ohio State still ranks No. 134 overall – dead last in the FBS – in opponent penalties and opponent penalty yards per game. Notre Dame isn’t much better, checking in at No. 99 and No. 96 in both categories. Watch those officials call zero penalties on either team, for the heck of it!
“I’M HAPPY FOR OUR COACH.” Following the Buckeyes’ fourth consecutive loss to the Wolverines, Day faced intense criticism from Ohio State fans and non-Ohio State fans alike.
With his seat as hot as it had been during his six seasons as head coach, Day has led the Buckeyes to the national championship game with wins over Tennessee, Oregon and Texas. Chip Kelly and Jim Knowles have been delighted to see Day respond to Ohio State’s devastating defeat in The Game with CFP success.
Chip Kelly
“Yeah, I am. Knowing him for so long, I’m not surprised (he’s bounced back). I told him a long time ago that he was built for this. He understands the gravity of what you have to do to be a head coach here. I think he’s handled himself tremendously. He’s the same person every day. I think the consistency in how he shows up here every day, what his mission is and how he drives the entire program, coaches, people in the building and players is evident. We get a chance to play one more game, and that’s what the mantra has been since the last game of the regular season. We’ve got to keep this group together, and everything he’s talked about since that day, we’ve done. We’ve got to continue to do it.”
Jim Knowles
“I’m happy for our coach. He really is a great head coach. He’s involved in all aspects. He’s in touch with the players. He knows your problems. He knows your struggles.
“There’s not a person in this building, no matter what your job is or anybody who knows him, we all know he would do anything for the team or the players. He works extremely hard. He doesn’t let anything from the outside world affect us. He’s very protective of our job and the players and making sure we have it the best that it can be. Yes, I’m very happy for him. He deserves it. He deserves all the recognition and the support from anyone.
“Anyone who is a fan of this program, if you saw inside (the Woody) and how Coach Day works, the feeling the players have for him, how consistent and supportive he is. And then look at the players. I mean, we have really good kids, really good kids. … How the players operate in the community and all the good things that happen and all the bad things that don’t happen, the kind of discipline and selflessness we have in the program – that’s all a function of Coach Day’s effort and what he puts into it.”
Remember The Titans.
I reference it all the time.
One of the best quotes in the entire film?
“Attitude reflects leadership, captain."
When the leadership works the hardest and loves the most, that’s the ultimate recipe for success, which can (and will) culminate in a national championship on Monday.
“IT’S LIKE A FAIRY TALE.” How does Jack Sawyer’s mother, Michelle, feel about her son’s scoop-and-score? Bill Rabinowitz of The Columbus Dispatch provided the answer on Monday.
Spoiler: She feels pretty good.
Ryan Day embraces Jack Sawyers mom following the Ohio States Cotton Bowl win over Texas.
— Crissy Froyd (@crissy_froyd) January 11, 2025
Thats how you become a legend! pic.twitter.com/cvl15iIbZb
“It should have sunk in by now,” Michelle told Rabinowitz. “I don’t know if it’ll even completely sink in until we’re down in Georgia sitting at the national championship. It’s just crazy. People keep sending me videos, and I’ve seen it a million times now. But you’re just like, ‘That really happened?’
Michelle then admitted she doesn’t remember much of the moment as it happened. It felt like an out-of-body experience: “My daughter and I were joking, and she said, ‘I think I blacked out there for a minute.’ I said, ‘I think I did, too.’
Sawyer, who pioneered Ohio State’s “Reload the Clip” movement that saw over a dozen members of the 2020 and 2021 classes return for fourth and fifth seasons with the Buckeyes, has stuffed the box score this season, recording a career-high 56 tackles, nine sacks, seven pass breakups, three forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries and two defensive touchdowns.
None of those stats were more important than the strip-sack scoop-and-score in the Cotton Bowl, a play that will go down as one of the greatest in program history.
JACK SAWYER, THE MAN THAT YOU ARE pic.twitter.com/tQrhrXBqoF
— Eleven Warriors (@11W) January 11, 2025
“It’s like a fairy tale,” Michelle said. “You just can’t make this stuff up. It’s amazing. It’s the best group of kids I’ve ever been around. The parents are amazing. I’m so thrilled for these boys. We love Coach Day. We love that whole staff. I’m just so happy for them.”
SONG OF THE DAY. "Georgia On My Mind" - Ray Charles.
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