Michigan has been in this spot recently. Just not with Jim Harbaugh.
The Wolverines (1-2) are just one loss away from their first 1-3 start in over half a century. That season kicked off in 1967 with Bump Elliott at the helm, and it ended with an uninspired 4-6 record. Elliott lasted one more year in Ann Arbor before a guy named Bo Schembechler took over the reins.
Fast forward 41 years from that 1-3 start and it was Michigan once again on the brink of dropping three of its first four games. It was 2008, and the Rich Rodriguez era was off to a rocky start with convincing losses to Utah and Notre Dame, paired with a lethargic 16-6 win over Miami (OH).
That set the stage for the Wisconsin matchup. The ninth-ranked Badgers were undefeated when they traveled to the Big House as nearly two-touchdown favorites to open Big Ten play.
Everything was lining up for Wisconsin to seal the worst start to a Michigan season in over four decades. The Badgers raced out to a 19-0 halftime lead and looked to be cruising, but the Wolverines were a different and opportunistic team in the second half. Rodriguez's squad marched off 27 unanswered points thanks to a suddenly stifling defense that registered a pick-six during the rally.
Wisconsin scored late but failed on its two-point attempt, giving Michigan a 27-25 victory and a 2-2 record.
Since that close call, the first four games (September) have been good to the Wolverines. They were 37-7 in the opening four games in the 11 seasons leading up to 2020, and those fast starts were crucial in giving the fanbase hope — a very important element to a Michigan football season.
But 2020 doesn't have that vibe. For the Wolverines, 2020 feels a lot like 2008, when a supposed head-coaching savior of Michigan football was sporting a 1-2 record with a dangerous and undefeated Wisconsin team coming to town.
Can Harbaugh rise to Rodriguez Status and upset the Badgers to keep pace with Rutgers in the East Division title race?
That's a question more compelling than it should be. If Wisconsin was at full strength — essentially, the team that bloodied Illinois in a 45-7 demolition during the season-opener — the Badgers would likely be heavy favorites heading into Ann Arbor this weekend.
But Wisconsin's football program was hit with a COVID-19 outbreak following opening weekend, which led to the cancellation of two ensuing games. After the active spread settled, the Badgers have been able to practice and are ready to take on Michigan, but it's still unclear how many players (particularly, starters) will miss the game.
Wisconsin enters Saturday's contest as 4.5-point favorites, according to OddsShark.com.
Since Ohio State's contest against Maryland was canceled due to a COVID-19 outbreak in the Terrapins program, why not put a spotlight on this potentially historic moment? Let's preview the Michigan - Wisconsin game.
When Michigan has the Ball
Michigan's offensive identity remains as unsettled as any you saw in Columbus when Jim Tressel was roaming the sidelines in Ohio Stadium.
The awkward marriage of power football and spread concepts is very much alive and well in Ann Arbor, and the result is what you'd expect. Michigan has, by all accounts, a rocket launcher for a quarterback behind center, but the downfield passing attack is extremely inconsistent through three games.
Joe Milton's numbers are impressive at first glance. He's averaging nearly 290 passing yards per game in 2020, which is an impressive number when compared to the best quarterbacks in Michigan history.
Among quarterbacks that qualify, John Navarre leads the Wolverines program with an average of 256.2 passing yards per game in a full season (2003). That team went on to play in the Rose Bowl. This 2020 squad probably will not, but Milton is outpacing Navarre by nearly 35 passing yards per game.
Milton, however, isn't connecting down the field as frequently as other elite quarterbacks around the country. The Michigan quarterback is averaging 8.1 yards per attempt, which ranks a semi-respectable 44th nationally. Wisconsin quarterback Graham Mertz currently ranks No. 4 nationally with 11.8 yards (despite just one game played), but Justin Fields (an Ohio State quarterback you may have heard of) currently sits at No. 6 on that list at 10.9.
Milton's numbers honestly look respectable, but they overcompensate for an underwhelming rushing attack. The Wolverines ran for an impressive 256 yards against Minnesota in the season opener, but they ran for 152 against the Spartans and just 13 against Indiana a week ago.
Their output has them ranked No. 84 nationally in rush offense, which isn't the kind of support Milton needs to thrive.
Michigan is undergoing an identity crisis, and there isn't a clear direction for the team to navigate its way to efficiency. That's not what you're hoping for when a top-15 team is knocking on your door for a primetime showdown.
But hey, maybe the full blueprint isn't out just yet.
When Wisconsin has the Ball
The biggest question mark surrounding Wisconsin's 2020 season was how the offense would replace the generational talent at running back in Jonathan Taylor.
That question still remains after one game, as the Badgers rushing attack looked average against lowly Illinois, registering just 3.4 yards per carry in the season-opener.
But the surprise of the opener came in Wisconsin's quarterback, Mertz, who completed an incredible 20-of-21 passes for 248 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions. Mertz was filling in for Jack Coan, who started every game during a 2019 run to the Big Ten title game and Rose Bowl appearance.
Coan is battling a foot injury, but Mertz could be one of the pleasant surprises of the 2020 season. He's efficient and moves the ball, and on Saturday, he'll be going against a Michigan secondary that's been very kind to opposing quarterbacks this year.
Against Michigan State and Indiana, the Wolverines secondary surrendered an average of 332.5 passing yards and three touchdowns (against no interceptions) per game.
Those aren't encouraging numbers when you're going against a quarterback that has as many incompletions (one, as in 1) as your team has victories on the season.
Michigan's ineffective cornerbacks, along with defensive coordinator Don Brown's inability to protect them in his scheme, have been an issue through the first three games of the season. If that continues, it could be a long night for the Wolverines.
Things get a little easier for Michigan after Saturday. The Wolverines travel to Rutgers next Saturday before hosting Penn State the following weekend. But it feels like the Wolverines are at a crossroad this weekend, and a strong Wisconsin team could force them down a bad path.
