The Big Ten has nine teams in the NCAA Tournament for the second year in a row. The conference is certainly hoping for better results than it achieved in last year’s tournament.
While the Big Ten was expected to make a big mark on last year’s tournament, when the conference had two No. 1 seeds, two No. 2 seeds and a No. 4 seed among its nine teams that earned bids to the Big Dance, most of those teams went out with a whimper. Michigan was the only Big Ten team that even made it to the second weekend of the tournament, and even the Wolverines fell short of expectations, as they lost in the Elite Eight to No. 11 seed UCLA as the No. 1 seed in the East Regional.
Expectations aren’t quite as high for the conference this year, as the Big Ten doesn’t have any 1 or 2 seeds. But with more teams in the tournament than any other conference – three more to be exact – once again, including two No. 3 seeds, a No. 4 seed and a No. 5 seed, there’s still plenty of potential for the Big Ten to make noise over the next three weeks.
Going into the Round of 64, which begins with a Big Ten game when Michigan plays Colorado State at 12:15 p.m. on Thursday, the conference is down to eight teams left in the field after Rutgers fell to Notre Dame in double overtime in Wednesday’s final game of the First Four. The Big Ten also picked up its first win of the tournament on Tuesday, however, when Indiana beat Wyoming to earn its place in the 64-team bracket.
Ultimately, it’s what happens over the next four days as the field is narrowed from 64 teams to 16 that will truly begin to define whether this year’s tournament is a success for the Big Ten or another disappointment.
With that in mind, we take a look at all eight of the Big Ten teams that remain in the field – in order of their overall seeds – and what their chances look like of making a run to the second weekend or beyond.
The Top Contenders
Wisconsin (#3 Seed)
The first team chosen to be a No. 3 seed by the NCAA Tournament selection committee, Wisconsin earned the No. 9 overall seed by going 24-7 in the regular season with a 15-5 record in conference play. Big Ten player of the year and first-team All-American guard Johnny Davis has as much ability to take over a game as any player in the country, and Brad Davison, Tyler Wahl, Steven Crowl and Chucky Hepburn give him a solid supporting cast.
Wisconsin is entering the tournament on a two-game skid, however, after losing their regular-season finale against Nebraska and their first Big Ten Tournament game to Michigan State. Davis suffered an ankle injury in the loss to Nebraska and shot just 3-of-19 in the loss to the Spartans, and he’s the engine that makes Wisconsin go, so the Badgers need him to regain form if they’re going to make the tournament run they should be capable of.
The Badgers look to have a favorable path to the Sweet 16 – considering that the 6 seed in their region, LSU, just fired head coach Will Wade – and potential Elite Eight opponent Auburn looks vulnerable after losing three of its last six regular-season games. That said, Wisconsin faces what could be a dangerous first-round matchup against Colgate, which has won 19 of its last 20 games entering the tournament and is one of only two teams in the country that’s made more than 40 percent of its 3-point shots this season, giving it the potential for an Oral Roberts-esque upset.
Purdue (#3)
On paper, Purdue might be the Big Ten’s strongest Final Four contender. With 7-foot-4 Zach Edey and consistently productive veteran Trevion Williams down low and potential top-five NBA draft pick Jaden Ivey and sharpshooter Sasha Stefanovic leading the backcourt, Purdue can create matchup problems for just about any opponent.
The Boilermakers were given a tough draw, though, as their half of the East Region bracket includes some of the hottest teams in the country. Purdue is a 16-point favorite to win its first-round game against No. 14 seed Yale, but the second round could potentially bring forth a matchup with Virginia Tech, who upset Duke to win the ACC Tournament. If the Boilermakers get to the Sweet 16, they’ll likely have to beat Kentucky – who has the third-highest KenPom rating in the country – to advance to the Elite Eight.
Purdue is capable of beating any team in the country, but hasn’t always performed up to billing in the Big Dance, as it’s made just one Elite Eight in its last four tournament appearances despite being no lower than a No. 4 seed in all of them.
Illinois (#4)
When Illinois has been at its best, it’s looked like one of the top teams in the country. Kofi Cockburn has certainly been one of the best players in the country, ranking in the top 12 nationally in both points per game (21.1) and rebounds per game (10.6), while guards Alfonso Plummer, Trent Frazier, Jacob Grandison and Andre Curbelo are also each capable of big outings on any given night.
The production from the supporting cast hasn’t always been consistent, and the Illini suffered some surprising losses down the stretch, including a 65-63 loss to Indiana in their only game of the Big Ten Tournament. If Cockburn can stay out of foul trouble and the other scorers step up around him, though, Illinois is a real threat to make a deep run.
That won’t come easily, as the Fighting Illini face a potential second-round matchup with Houston – the No. 4 team in the KenPom ratings – and are likely to face one of the national championship favorites, Arizona, if they get to the Sweet 16. But Illinois can contend with anyone when it’s clicking.
Kofi Cockburn is the big reason why Illinois is one of the Big Ten’s top contenders to make an NCAA Tournament run. (Photo: Nick King/Lansing State Journal/USA TODAY Network)
Iowa (#5)
No Big Ten team enters the NCAA Tournament with more momentum than Iowa, which has won 12 of its last 14 games including four games in the Big Ten Tournament. After winning the conference tournament as the No. 5 seed in Indianapolis, the Hawkeyes will look to put together a similar run as the No. 5 seed in the South region.
Led by Keegan Murray, who has averaged 23.6 points per game this season, Iowa has one of the nation’s most explosive offenses, ranking fourth in the country with 83.8 points per game. Teams who can score the ball as well as Iowa can are always capable of making a deep run in the tournament, making the Hawkeyes a team no one will look forward to facing.
That also potentially leaves them susceptible to an early upset, however, if they have a cold night shooting the ball, as they’ve also allowed the most points per game (71.3) of any Big Ten team in the tournament field. They’re likely to be favored in a potential second-round matchup with Providence, even though the Friars are a No. 4 seed, but will likely have to upset No. 1 seed Kansas in the Sweet 16 if it’s going to reach the Elite Eight or further. (Update: Iowa lost to Providence, 67-63, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.)
The Seven Seeds
Michigan State (#7)
Michigan State’s place in the bracket already has many people looking ahead to a potential second-round matchup between two of college basketball’s all-time great choices, Tom Izzo and Mike Krzyzewski, in Krzyzewski’s final season coaching Duke before retirement. To get there, though, the Spartans will have to survive a 7-10 matchup with Davidson in which they are favored to win by only one point.
As has been Davidson’s hallmark since Steph Curry’s days as a Wildcat, Michigan State’s first-round opponent is one of the best shooting teams in the country. If the Spartans are going to make a run to the Sweet 16, they’ll probably have to also beat one of the most talented teams in the country in Duke, and Michigan State is unlikely to have the crowd on its side if it plays two consecutive games in Greenville, South Carolina against North Carolina-based schools.
Michigan State has a reputation for turning things up at tournament time, so much so that renaming March “Izzo” has become a Jon Rothstein catchphrase, so it shouldn’t shock anyone if the Spartans work their way back to the second weekend of the tournament again. But it won’t be an easy path to get there.
Tom Izzo will need to conjure up some more March magic if the Spartans are going to make a lengthy NCAA Tournament run this year. (Photo: Trevor Ruszkowski – USA TODAY Sports)
Ohio State (#7)
Since you’re reading this at Eleven Warriors, you’re probably already well-aware of the draw that awaits Ohio State. Like Michigan State, the Buckeyes will face one of the most dangerous mid-majors in the tournament when they play Loyola in a 7-10 first-round matchup that oddsmakers view as a toss-up. If the Buckeyes get past the Ramblers, they’ll likely have to upset No. 2 seed Villanova in the second round to make their first Sweet 16 of Chris Holtmann’s tenure.
Led by a pair of future first-round NBA draft picks in E.J. Liddell and Malaki Branham, Ohio State has proven capable of beating some of the nation’s top teams – including Duke, Wisconsin and Illinois – when it’s been on top of its game. But the Buckeyes will have to play much better than they have in their last five games, in which they’ve gone just 1-4, if they’re going to make it out of the tournament’s first weekend.
The Longer Shots
Michigan (#11)
The NCAA selection committee’s decision to give Michigan a direct bid into the 64-team bracket while making both Rutgers and Indiana play in the First Four was a questionable one, considering that Michigan’s 17 wins this season are the fewest of any team in the field, but the Wolverines will take the draw they were given and look to take advantage of it.
Even though they’re a No. 11 seed, the Wolverines are actually a betting favorite to beat No. 6 seed Colorado State in the first round. From a talent perspective, Michigan should have been much better than it actually has been this year, so a tournament run isn’t out of the question if Juwan Howard’s squad can finally put all the pieces together.
Considering Michigan hasn’t had back-to-back wins in any of its last nine games, though, a run to the second weekend of the tournament would register as a surprise – especially with a looming potential second-round matchup against Tennessee, who’s won 12 of its last 13 games.
| Team | Opponent | Time, Day | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| #11 MICHIGAN | #6 COLORADO STATE | 12:15 p.m., Thursday | CBS |
| #5 IOWA | #12 RICHMOND | 3:10 p.m., Thursday | TruTV |
| #12 INDIANA | #5 SAINT MARY’S | 7:20 p.m., Thursday | TBS |
| #7 OHIO STATE | #10 LOYOLA | 12:15 p.m., Friday | CBS |
| #3 PURDUE | #14 YALE | 2 p.m., Friday | TBS |
| #4 ILLINOIS | #13 CHATTANOOGA | 6:50 p.m., Friday | TNT |
| #7 MICHIGAN STATE | #10 DAVIDSON | 9:40 p.m., Friday | CBS |
| #3 WISCONSIN | #14 COLGATE | 9:50 p.m., Friday | TBS |
Indiana (#12)
Indiana likely wouldn’t be in the tournament if it hadn’t won two games in the Big Ten Tournament – the Hoosiers were the second-to-last team chosen to make the field – but as they showed with their win over Illinois last week in Indianapolis that punched their ticket into the Big Dance, they’re capable of pulling off an upset win or two and making some noise if they play at their best.
Trayce Jackson-Davis will be the best player on the floor when Indiana plays No. 5 seed Saint Mary’s in the first round, and the Hoosiers have been strong defensively as the only Big Ten team to hold opponents to a field goal percentage below 40 this season.
Still, the Hoosiers – the only Big Ten team still in the field that’s actually an underdog for its first-round game – are the least likely Big Ten team to make a run in the tournament. Defeating the Gaels would be an upset in itself, and if the Hoosiers pull that off, they’ll need to play as well as they’ve played all year to have a chance to win a likely matchup with No. 4 seed UCLA in the second round.
