Mark Dantonio and his Michigan State Spartans will try to make it two-for-two for the Big Ten in the College Football Playoff era when Sparty takes on Alabama in the Cotton Bowl on New Year’s Eve to start its run in football’s final four.
Of the three other teams in the final four that Michigan State could be playing, the Crimson Tide represents the one that best falls into Sparty’s wheelhouse. Alabama is a power run team that has struggled at times in the passing game. Dantonio’s Spartans excel at stopping a downhill running attack and they have struggled against good passing teams.
Nick Saban and Alabama Offensive Coordinator Lane Kiffin will run Derrick Henry until his bones crumble and he drops dead on the field. We already know Henry will get the ball more than Ezekiel Elliott did against Michigan State (and yes, I typed that while grinding my teeth). But running Henry plays into what the Spartans do best. With a strong defensive line led by Shilique Calhoun and Malik McDowell, and a linebacking corps that attacks gaps downhill, the Spartans would rather make you beat them over the top than grind out first downs on the ground.
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It’s interesting to note that if Michigan State is to win a national championship, it will have to go through the Heisman Trophy winner, much like Ohio State did last season. Henry, the 6-foot-2, 242-pound junior who won the 2015 Heisman, presents a similar challenge for defenses to Elliott, who the Spartans did a good job against, albeit on a limited number of carries. He led the FBS in rushing attempts, with 339 — 20 more than second-place Christian McCaffery — gaining an SEC record 1,986 yards and 23 touchdowns. He’ll get more carries than Elliott and Alabama won’t get frustrated if Henry is stopped early. They’ll just keep blasting him forward.
If Sparty is going to be successful in beating Alabama and advancing, Michigan State’s defense is going to have to limit freshman wide receiver Calvin Ridley. The 6-foot-1, 188-pound product of Monarch High in Coconut Creek, FL, is a natural talent that presents a similar skill set to 2014 Heisman finalist Amari Cooper. Michigan State should be able to contain Henry for the most part, but if that comes at the cost of turning Ridley loose, that could be a problem. Calhoun, the Spartans’ best pass rusher, may have something to say about how successful Ridley’s day will be.
What about the Alabama defense? The Spartans will likely struggle to run against the Crimson Tide’s front seven. Alabama has the nation’s top rushing defense, allowing only 74 yards per game on the ground in 2015. The Tide also has the 16th best pass defense in the country, allowing 184 yards per game through the air. But you can gash Bama that way.
Alabama has allowed 38 passing plays of 20 or more yards in 2015, 15 such plays of more than 30 yards, and 10 that covered at least 40 yards. The Tide allowed five passing plays of 50 or more yards, three of 60 or more and two that covered at least 70 yards. If Connor Cook can return to his accurate form and deliver strikes to Aaron Burbridge and Macgarrett Kings, the Spartan offense will move.
If Sparty manages to get past Alabama, it will match up against the winner of the Oklahoma-Clemson game. Both teams seem more problematic offensively for Michigan State than Alabama. The Sooners and Tigers have good balance and athletic quarterbacks that can make plays with both their arms and their feet.
I believe Michigan State matches up better against Oklahoma than Clemson. The Tiger defense is better against the run than the Sooners, and is fifth nationally against the pass. But the Sooners have been the hotter team down the stretch, so it will be interesting to see which one advances.
Should Sparty get past Alabama, it will have to guard against a letdown as successfully as Ohio State did after getting past the Tide last season. It helped the Buckeyes that they were facing celebrated Heisman winner Marcus Mariota from Oregon in the ultimate game. The Spartans will not have that luxury. But Mark Dantonio has shown a penchant for getting the most out of his teams.
If Michigan State gets past Alabama, I wouldn’t bet against Dino to make it two-for-two for the B1G.
