We’re four weeks into the college football season and things have already gotten a little chaotic.
One week after discussing how many strong Group of Five contenders there were for the G5 playoff spot, three of those teams with wins over Power Four schools suffered losses to fellow conference members: Northern Illinois, Toledo and Memphis.
The Big Ten and the SEC continue to look like the strongest conferences in the sport. Two of the three preseason favorites in the Big 12 lost on Saturday and Clemson and Miami continue to be the clear frontrunners in the ACC.
As we’ve done on Tuesdays throughout the season, we’re examining the weekly CFP outlook based on the results available at the time.
For one more week, here's how the 12-team CFP would be formatted if the season ended today, based on the latest Associated Press Top 25 Poll. We’ll start making our own projections on Oct. 1 since every team will be at least a third of the way through its season.
Here's what the 12-team Playoff Field would look like if based off the Week 5 AP Poll. pic.twitter.com/hUHOJf9v2M
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) September 22, 2024
And now, here’s a conference-by-conference breakdown of who could be in contention for a CFP spot. As you’d expect, the categories and schools in them are subjective. In case you need a reminder, the 12-team CFP format is five conference champions (including one Group of Five team) and seven at-large selections.
Big Ten
Conference contenders: Ohio State, Oregon
Teams with a clear path to an at-large: Penn State, Michigan, USC
Darkhorses: Illinois, Iowa
Darkest of darkhorses: Rutgers, Nebraska, Indiana
Breakdown: Oregon was idle last week and should (emphasis on should) coast just fine against UCLA this weekend.
Ohio State finished its weak non-conference schedule by throttling everyone in its path and now faces a scrappy yet mistake-prone Michigan State team in its Big Ten opener on Saturday.
Michigan set offense back 100 years as quarterback Alex Orji only threw for 32 yards in a win against USC, but the Wolverines secured a much-needed win for their at-large hopes. While the Trojans really could have benefited from that road win, it’s not over for them yet either, with Penn State and Notre Dame the two toughest remaining teams on their schedule.
Penn State demolished what may very well be the worst team in the FBS in Kent State and now faces an unexpectedly delightful matchup with No. 19 Illinois in State College. It’s probably not a “must-win” for either team in terms of the playoff picture, but the victor will lay a foundation for a path for an at-large selection.
Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson is a playmaker the Hawkeyes’ offense has sorely needed for quite some time, though the Hawkeyes will have to win all of their remaining games but the Ohio State contest to have any hopes of a playoff appearance.
Nebraska keeps losing close games to ranked teams, but the Cornhuskers’ only near-certain loss of all opponents on their schedule is Ohio State. Rutgers can keep the faint dream alive with a win against a Washington team that will have to travel across the country on Friday. Indiana has played four games and dominated each opponent. Gotta give the Hoosiers some credit here.
SEC
Conference contenders: Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss
Teams with a path to an at-large: Missouri (though it has to step it up)
Darkhorses: LSU
Breakdown: There’s no doubt Georgia vs. Alabama is the game of the week in college football this weekend and it should give a clear indicator of just how evenly matched (or far apart) these teams are. Alabama has been Kirby Smart’s boogeyman, but with Nick Saban retired, will that change?
Texas continues to throttle everyone in its path, even with a backup quarterback with a famous last name and now faces arguably the worst team in the conference in Mississippi State. Tennessee has been given plenty of credit for itshighly potentt offense, but its defense is a little underrated andmaybe that ise what could keep the Vols alive in the conference race.
Ole Miss hasn’t played anyone with a pulse yet, but it keeps blowing everyone out. The Rebels open their SEC slate against Kentucky on Saturday. LSU will probably be off this list following its matchup with the Rebels on Oct. 12, but you still can't ignore how capable its offense can be.
Missouri is undefeated, so that's good, but the Tigers have consistently played with their food in wins over Boston College and Vanderbilt. If an overtime win against the Commodores doesn't scream the Tigers may be a flawed team, maybe a road matchup against Texas A&M on Oct. 5 will.
ACC
Conference contenders: Miami, Clemson
Darkhorse conference contenders: Louisville
Darkest of darkhoses: Pittsburgh
Breakdown: Miami and Clemson continue to look like the clear class of the ACC.
It feels inevitable we’re heading for a conference championship featuring those two, but Louisville could have something to say about that. The Cardinals will get a crack at Notre Dame this weekend, which will be a nice measuring stick for Jeff Brohm’s squad.
Pittsburgh has completed its first undefeated non-conference slate in school history en route to a 4-0 start. Yes, you read that right, this is the first time ever in the Panthers’ entire school history they’ve gone undefeated in a non-conference slate. For context, they weren’t full members of a conference until the 1991 season, but still, that’s a long time to not go undefeated for the first few weeks of the season!
Big 12
Driver’s seat: Utah
Conference contenders: Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Iowa State
Darkhorse conference contenders: UCF, BYU
Breakdown: No Cam Rising, no problem. Utah is out here winning marquee road conference games with a true freshman starting quarterback. The Utes beating the Cowboys is such a boost to their chances of making a conference championship appearance, and now their three biggest remaining games of the year are all at home: Arizona, BYU and Iowa State.
Oklahoma State and Kansas State, two of the three preseason favorites for the league, now face each other in what’s essentially a loser-out game this weekend in Manhattan.
Iowa State probably won’t get much of a test in the next three games against Houston, Baylor and West Virginia, so the Cyclones have a prime opportunity to assert themselves firmly in the conference race.
BYU’s blowout win over Kansas State turned some heads and earned the Cougars a spot in the AP Top 25 poll for this week. UCF has the offensive firepower to make the conference race really interesting.
Group of Five
Teams with a path to earn the G5 spot: Boise State, UNLV, Liberty, Memphis, Northern Illinois, Toledo, James Madison
Breakdown: No team was happier about Memphis, Northern Illinois and Toledo going down than Liberty. The Flames have a path to an undefeated season, but it’s certainly the weakest schedule of any Group of Five contender, so they’ll probably need some help to get in. As for the aforementioned teams, it doesn’t feel right to ax them off the list after one loss considering they each have a Power Four win, but all of them have used their one mulligan.
Despite half of its team leaving to play for Indiana, James Madison has entered the Group of Five fray after beating North Carolina so badly that Mack Brown offered to retire if he couldn’t fix his team’s woes.
Boise State and UNLV should probably be considered the betting favorites to get the Group of Five bid. The Broncos face the tall task of beating Washington State on Saturday, while UNLV has to tangle with Fresno State.
Other notes
- Notre Dame needs to beat Louisville this weekend to keep its playoff hopes alive. If the Fighting Irish lose, their playoff dreams are probably over even if they win out.
- One thing I’ve wondered recently: What would happen if Washington State went undefeated? The Cougars are playing a Mountain West schedule, but can’t play in a conference championship. Would the committee reward Washington State with a playoff berth, or say ‘To hell with you’ and keep them out? The Cougars would have two wins over Power Four teams (Texas Tech and Washington), for what it’s worth. This what-if could be shattered entirely this weekend though, as Washington State plays its hardest remaining contest this year against Boise State.
- I didn’t put this in the Group of Five section, but here’s a really fun scenario to consider. What if Army and Navy go undefeated this season (unlikely but not impossible), meet in the American Athletic Conference championship, with the winner getting the Group of Five bid to the CFP? The winner would instantly have to have a pointless rematch the next week, fully knowing a first-round CFP game awaited them the week after. It’s so chaotic I’m rooting like hell for it.
