We’re already halfway through the college football season.
The playoff picture is getting a little bit clearer for some and murkier for others. But with 12 playoff spots on the line for the first time ever this season, we could be settling in for a terrific race for the postseason down the stretch.
As we’ve done every Tuesday throughout the season, we’re taking a look at the weekly CFP outlook based on the results available to us at the time. Three weeks from now, we won’t have to do much guesswork anymore, as the College Football Playoff committee will reveal their first rankings of the season, so it’ll definitely adjust how we tackle this article a bit.
But that’s in a few weeks. For now, we’re making our own best guess at what the playoff could look like at the end of the article. For now, here’s what it would look like if we went off the Associated Press Top 25 Poll.
If the Week 8 AP Poll seeded the 12-team Playoff:
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) October 13, 2024
In: LSU
Out: Ole Miss pic.twitter.com/sPY0WURMN3
Before we get to our projections, here’s a conference-by-conference breakdown of who could be in contention for a CFP spot. As you’d expect, the categories and schools in them are subjective. In case you need a reminder, the 12-team CFP format is five conference champions (including one Group of Five team) and seven at-large selections.
Big Ten
Runaway favorite to get to Indy: Oregon (6-0 overall, 3-0 Big Ten)
Still formidable conference contenders: Ohio State (5-1, 2-1), Penn State (6-0, 3-0)
Will be tested finally this week but very much a factor in the CFP race: Indiana (6-0, 3-0)
Darkhorses: Nebraska (5-1, 2-1), Illinois (5-1, 2-1)
Need to win out to make the playoff: Michigan (4-2, 2-1), Iowa (4-2, 2-1)
Breakdown: With Oregon’s win over Ohio State, the Ducks have a clear path to Indianapolis and can even afford to lose one game and still probably be OK in the long run.
Ohio State still controls its own destiny and could have a head-to-head tiebreaker over any potential challenger for a Big Ten title appearance except Illinois and Wisconsin (good luck beating Oregon and Penn State to get there though, Badgers). That aside, it’s pretty simple: Win out and you’re getting to Indianapolis.
Penn State has a little room for error here and could potentially afford to slip up once or even twice and still earn an at-large berth, but the Nittany Lions are eyeing the OSU contest in three weeks and trying to earn a potential conference title game spot.
Indiana and Nebraska in Bloomington will be must-see TV this weekend and I don’t remember the last time I said that about an Indiana vs. Nebraska game. If the Hoosiers win, the path to a playoff spot seems pretty attainable. Nebraska could flip that script with a win of its own, though if the Cornhuskers lose, their playoff hopes move to life support.
Illinois and Michigan is almost a loser-out matchup on Saturday, certainly for Michigan and almost for Illinois considering it still has to play Oregon. Iowa is probably going to continue being Iowa and punt to win, with the Hawkeyes’ strongest remaining test likely coming against Nebraska in the regular season finale.
SEC
Driver’s seat for conference championship appearance: Texas (6-0 overall, 2-0 SEC), Texas A&M (5-1, 3-0)
Teams still very much alive in the playoff race: Alabama (5-1, 2-1), Tennessee (5-1, 2-1), Georgia (5-1, 3-1), LSU (5-1, 2-0)
Probably needs to win out: Missouri (5-1, 1-1)
On life support: Ole Miss (5-2, 1-2)
Breakdown: Texas looks like the strongest team in the sport at the moment, but even the Longhorns have flaws. We’ll find out just how good they are when they face a Georgia team that has looked far weaker compared to preseason expectations but is still loaded with talent. A loss for the Bulldogs would nearly eliminate them from the SEC title race, but they’d still be in the running for an at-large berth. If Texas wins, it will be the No. 1 team in the country that beat Georgia and now has to play Vanderbilt on the road a week later. UH OH! (Kidding, I think?)
Texas A&M is still undefeated in SEC play and faces the worst team in the league Saturday, Mississippi State.
Tennessee and Alabama both got all they could handle from a pair of unranked foes again this past weekend, but this time they eked out wins. They face off against each other this week, with the loser getting close to being eliminated from the conference title race.
LSU survived against Ole Miss and is undefeated in SEC play, but the Tigers run the gauntlet in their next three games: At Arkansas (ask Tennessee how fun that was), at Texas A&M and vs. Alabama. If the Tigers can go 2-1 in that stretch, they could have a path to either an at-large berth or an SEC title game appearance, depending on other results around the league.
Ole Miss has to win out to have any hopes of an at-large berth and probably needs Georgia to be highly touted so it can pick up a major win in the eyes of the committee.
Missouri’s schedule is super soft compared to its conference foes and likewise could benefit if Alabama beats Tennessee and the Tigers in turn beat the Crimson Tide in two weeks, but it’s hard to expect anything from a team that got destroyed by the Aggies.
ACC
Conference contenders: Miami (6-0 overall, 2-0 ACC), Clemson (5-1, 4-0)
Darkhorse conference contender: SMU (5-1, 2-0)
Darkest of darkhoses: Pittsburgh (6-0, 2-0), Louisville (4-2, 2-1), Syracuse (5-1, 2-1)
Breakdown: Miami and Clemson are still heavy favorites to make the ACC title game. The Hurricanes have a tough test this week against Louisville, and a loss by the Cards would pretty much eliminate their playoff chances. Clemson’s toughest ACC challenge the rest of the season is Lousiville on Nov. 2, or perhaps could it be Pittsburgh on Nov. 16?
Speaking of the Panthers, they just keep finding ways to scrap out wins and remain undefeated. It doesn’t matter how sexy those wins are as long as they rack them up. Unfortunately, Pitt has a brutal slate for four of the next five games: Syracuse, SMU, Clemson and Louisville.
SMU’s toughest remaining opponent is Pittsburgh on Nov. 2, but if it can take care of business there, we could be looking at an undefeated conference record for the Mustangs in their first year in the ACC since they avoid Miami and Clemson in regular-season play. If Syracuse gets past Pittsburgh, it will likely be favored in every game it plays until the regular season finale against Miami.
Big 12
The favorites to win the league: Iowa State (6-0 overall, 3-0 Big 12), BYU (6-0, 3-0)
Still alive: Kansas State (5-1, 2-1), Texas Tech (5-1, 3-0), Colorado (4-2, 2-1), Arizona State (5-1, 2-1), West Virginia (3-3, 2-1), Cincinnati (4-2, 2-1)
Breakdown: Iowa State has its two toughest remaining games at home (Texas Tech, Kansas State) and likely can afford a mulligan and still make the conference title game. BYU’s situation is even better, with no ranked team left on its schedule and a win over Kansas State already in tow. The Cougars also have some room for error.
Texas Tech is undefeated in league play and hopes to continue that against the reeling Baylor Bears this weekend. Kansas State, Colorado, Arizona State, West Virginia and Cincinnati are all one-loss teams in league play that can’t afford to slip up again.
Group of Five
Strong contenders for the G5 playoff spot: Boise State (5-1 overall, 2-1 Mountain West), UNLV (5-1 overall, 2-1 Mountain West), Liberty (5-0 overall, 3-0 Conference USA), Navy (5-0, 3-0 AAC), Army (6-0, 5-0 AAC)
Breakdown: Here’s where I’m at with the G5 race. At this point, I think we’re looking at the Mountain West champion representing the Group of Five in the CFP, especially since Boise State has arguably the Heisman frontrunner leading the way right now, and UNLV has two Power Four wins and almost won a third.
Liberty hasn’t lost yet but each week the Flames look so unimpressive compared to their contending counterparts. Navy and Army are both ranked in the same AP Top 25 poll for the first time since 1960.
I think the only way the Mountain West champ is dethroned is if either Army or Navy wins the conference and also either beats or nearly beats Notre Dame. Every team in the MAC has at least two losses, so I think we can safely eliminate that league from the running for the moment. The Sun Belt has a few one-loss teams, but none have the resume the others do right now.
Notre Dame
I still think Notre Dame (5-1) needs to win out to get in, which gets tougher now that star cornerback Benjamin Morrison is out for the year. But if the SEC continues to keep eating itself, it’s not impossible a 10-2 Notre Dame squeaks into the playoffs, especially if Texas A&M is a playoff team.
Playoff prediction
For our playoff predictions, we’re going to combine the results available to us and our own projections for how the rest of the season could play out.
Conference champs
- No. 1 Texas
- No. 2 Oregon
- No. 3 Miami
- No. 4 Iowa State
First-round
- No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 Boise State (winner faces Iowa State)
- No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 11 LSU (winner faces Miami)
- No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Indiana (winner faces Oregon)
- No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 9 Notre Dame (winner faces Texas)
First teams out
- Tennessee
- SMU
- Clemson
- BYU
Breakdown: Don’t worry, I’ve done this article long enough now where if you hate this playoff projection, it’s going to change in a week anyway.
I still like Ohio State’s chances in a rematch with Oregon in Indy, but the Buckeyes just lost to them, so we aren’t going to reward them this week. They’ll take the No. 5 seed instead as the B1G runner-up with wins over Penn State, Indiana and Iowa aiding their cause.
Texas is the SEC champion in this scenario, besting rival Texas A&M in the SEC championship game. I have A&M besting LSU at home, but the Tigers hold serve against Alabama, ending the Crimson Tide’s playoff chances and getting an at-large berth at No. 11. LSU would get the last at-large berth over Tennessee because the Volunteers have looked too shaky against meager foes to reward in a toss-up that will cause infighting in the conference.
Penn State’s only loss of the season in this projection is Ohio State, so the Nittany Lions slot in at No. 6.
Miami bests SMU in the title game, putting the Hurricanes at the No. 3 seed and keeping SMU out of the tournament with two losses and Clemson also on the outside looking in with two losses.
Iowa State handles BYU in the Big 12 title game, as the Cougars find themselves left out with two losses. If both Iowa State and BYU run the table until the conference championship, though, both could get in.
Georgia and Notre Dame face off as the No. 8 and No. 9 matchup, Georgia with two losses and Notre Dame winning out despite the devastating injury to Morrison.
Ashton Jeanty powers Boise State to a Mountain West title, and if the Broncos dominate in that fashion, it might be worth asking if they’re guaranteed to be the No. 12 seed considering their only loss is to Oregon by three points.
Finally, my heart couldn’t take leaving the Hoosiers out two weeks in a row, so we’re slotting Indiana in with the No. 10 spot.
