Playoff Pursuit: Oregon and Indiana Closing in on College Football Playoff Spots, SEC Has Two Pivotal Contests Saturday, ACC Headed Toward SMU vs. Miami Title Game

The College Football Playoff selection committee has officially released their initial rankings ahead of the inaugural 12-team CFP.

We’ve speculated about what the playoff picture could look like since the beginning of the season, but now we have actual data on how the committee views contenders two-thirds of the way through the season.

Ohio State is in an outstanding position to make the College Football Playoff, coming in at No. 2 in the first rankings. That doesn’t matter to Ryan Day or the players, though, as they’re focused on continuing to stack wins and remain in control of their own destiny in the Big Ten championship race.

“Rankings right now, for us don't mean anything, because you've got to keep winning,” Day said Tuesday. “Whatever the rankings are, they are; as we've always said, the ones that matter are the ones at the end of the year.”

Per usual, at the end of the article, we’ll make our own guess at what the playoff could look like. For now, here’s what it would look like if we went off the inaugural CFP rankings.

The first CFP bracket projection with the 12-team playoff era has dropped pic.twitter.com/HXK3syhbEE
— ESPN (@espn) November 6, 2024

Before we get to our projections, here’s a conference-by-conference breakdown of who could be in contention for a CFP spot. With the bracket coming out in about a month, we’ve changed up the format a little bit and now will let you see the remaining schedule each team has on the docket. In case you need a reminder, the 12-team CFP format is five conference champions (including one Group of Five team) and seven at-large selections.

Big Ten

Oregon (9-0 overall, 6-0 Big Ten, No. 1 in CFP poll)

Remaining schedule: vs. Maryland (NR), at Wisconsin (NR), vs. Washington (NR)

Breakdown: At this point, you can probably safely put Oregon in the College Football Playoff and the Big Ten title game. The Ducks still have to play the games, but it would be a stunner if that didn’t happen with no ranked opponents left on their schedule.

Indiana (9-0 overall, 6-0 Big Ten, No. 8)

Remaining schedule: vs. Michigan (NR), at Ohio State (No. 2), vs. Purdue (NR)

Breakdown: The Hoosiers can accomplish what we thought was almost unthinkable in the preseason. With a win against Michigan on Saturday, Indiana can essentially guarantee it makes the CFP, assuming it doesn’t blow it against Purdue to end the season. Then, in a few weeks, it’ll have a chance to fight its way to a Big Ten title game if it can beat Ohio State.

Ohio State (7-1, 4-1, No. 2)

Remaining schedule: vs. Purdue (NR), at Northwestern (NR), vs. Indiana (No. 8), vs. Michigan (NR)

Breakdown: Ohio State fans can breathe a sigh of relief following the Penn State win knowing the playoff should be the floor of the season now. The Buckeyes play snoozers of games the next two weeks, then have a monumental matchup with Indiana in a game that will likely determine who challenges Oregon for the Big Ten title.

Penn State (7-1, 4-1, No. 6)

Remaining schedule: vs. Washington (NR), at Purdue (NR), at Minnesota (NR), vs. Maryland (NR)

Breakdown: Penn State lost a heartbreaker to Ohio State, but now isn’t the time for the Nittany Lions to get down in the dumps. They’ll be favored in each of their remaining games, with Minnesota looking like the biggest challenge to Penn State at the moment. If PSU wins out, it’ll be in a position to at least host a first-round CFP game.

SEC

Georgia (7-1 overall, 5-1 SEC, No. 3 in CFP poll)

Remaining schedule: at Ole Miss (No. 16), vs. Tennessee (No. 7), vs. UMass (NR), vs. Georgia Tech (NR)

Breakdown: Georgia has been inconsistent all season, but its SEC title hopes will be decided within the next two weeks. Both Ole Miss and Tennessee are capable of beating Georgia the way the Bulldogs have played, but they’re more talented than either of those squads. Either way, Georgia should feel secure in making the CFP unless it somehow drops both contests.

Texas (7-1, 3-1, No. 5)

Remaining schedule: vs. Florida (NR), at Arkansas (NR), vs. Kentucky (NR), at Texas A&M (No. 14)

Breakdown: Texas has a pretty soft schedule down the stretch, but that rivalry game in the final week of the year could have some pretty significant stakes attached to it.

Tennessee (7-1, 4-1, No. 7)

Remaining schedule: vs. Mississippi State (NR), at Georgia (No. 3), vs. UTEP (NR), at Vanderbilt (NR)

Breakdown: Tennessee hasn’t been a world-beater by any stretch, but still is in a good position to at least make the CFP as an at-large. The Volunteers could make a statement in two weeks with a road win against Georgia, which would almost certainly clinch a playoff spot for them.

Texas A&M (7-2, 5-1, No. 14)

Remaining schedule: vs. New Mexico State (NR), at Auburn (NR), vs. Texas (No. 5)

Breakdown: We’ve reached the point in the SEC breakdown where pretty much every team left has to win out to keep their playoff hopes alive. Fortunately for Texas A&M, it has an easy road until the final week of the season against Texas. There will be no shortage of storylines for that matchup.

Alabama (6-2, 3-2, No. 11)

Remaining schedule: at LSU (No. 15), vs. Mercer (NR), at Oklahoma (NR), vs. Auburn (NR)

Breakdown: The Crimson Tide will either keep their playoff hopes alive this week or fall out of the conversation. If Alabama survives LSU unscatched, it should win the remainder of its games and secure an at-large berth.

LSU (6-2, 3-1, No. 15)

Remaining schedule: vs. Alabama (No. 11), at Florida (NR), vs. Vanderbilt (NR), vs. Oklahoma (NR)

Breakdown: Like Alabama, we’ll find out Saturday if the Tigers’ playoff hopes last beyond this week. If the Tigers beat the Crimson Tide, it’s not a gimme they get through the rest unscathed, but they would be favored in their remaining games.

Ole Miss (7-2, 3-2, No. 16)

Remaining schedule: at Georgia (No. 3), at Florida (NR), vs. Mississippi State (NR)

Breakdown: Ole Miss’ season comes down to this week. The Rebels will hope a chaotic home environment and a turnover-prone Carson Beck is enough to carry them to a win against Georgia. If Ole Miss survives, it’ll have a great chance at running the table and making the playoff.

ACC

Miami (9-0 overall, 5-0 ACC, No. 4)

Remaining schedule: at Georgia Tech (NR), vs. Wake Forest (NR), at Syracuse (NR)

Breakdown: It’s not a given by any stretch, but the Hurricanes will be favored in all three of their remaining games and thus have a clear way forward to the ACC title game. Miami is also probably the lone ACC team that could make the CFP as an at-large selection if it were to lose in the ACC title game.

SMU (8-1, 5-0, No. 13)

Remaining schedule: vs. Boston College (NR), at Virginia (NR), vs. Cal (NR)

Breakdown: As you can see, SMU has a clear path to winning out, and thus is the favorite to face Miami in the ACC title game. The Mustangs have a chance for a magical run in their first year in the Power Four.

Clemson (6-2, 5-1, No. 23)

Remaining schedule: at Virginia Tech (NR), at Pittsburgh (No. 18), vs. Citadel (NR), vs. South Carolina (NR)

Breakdown: Clemson has next to no chance at an at-large berth, so it will need SMU or Miami to trip up somewhere if it hopes to sneak into the conference championship. Its season really comes down to the next two games, its final two conference games of the season; if it wins both of those games, it’ll rely on the Hurricanes or Mustangs tripping up somewhere.

Pittsburgh (7-1, 3-1, No. 18)

Remaining schedule: vs. Virginia (NR), vs. Clemson (No. 23), at Louisville (No. 22), at Boston College (NR)

Breakdown: Following a blowout loss to SMU, Pitt’s lone chance at a CFP bid may be from a conference championship. Those prospects look grim as it would have to win out and SMU would have to collapse while playing an easy schedule. But it’s still mathematically possible.

Big 12

BYU (8-0 overall, 5-0 Big 12, No. 9 in CFP poll)

Remaining schedule: at Utah (NR), vs. Kansas (NR), at Arizona State (NR), vs. Houston (NR)

Breakdown: The Big 12 looks to be a one-bid league unless perhaps BYU runs the table but loses in the conference title game. BYU is in the driver’s seat for one of those two title game spots as the only undefeated team left in the league. The Cougars have a little room for error, but not if they want to maintain their at-large hopes. Fortunately, they have a very manageable schedule.

Iowa State (7-1, 4-1, No. 17)

Remaining schedule: at Kansas (NR), vs. Cincinnati (NR), at Utah (NR), vs. Kansas State (No. 19)

Breakdown: The Cyclones have a tough end to their schedule with three challenging game, but Iowa State can still make a run at the Big 12 title game despite suffering its first loss last week. If it wins out, the worst it can do is tie for second in the league.

Colorado (6-2, 4-1, No. 20)

Remaining schedule: at Texas Tech (No. NR), vs. Utah (NR), at Kansas (NR), vs. Oklahoma State (NR)

Breakdown: Admittedly we haven’t delved too deeply into the tiebreaker weeds just yet, but Colorado can tie Iowa State for second in the conference if both teams win out. Obviously, BYU falling and Iowa State falling again would be a huge help to the Buffs as well.

Kansas State (7-2, 4-2, No. 19)

Remaining schedule: vs. Arizona State (NR), vs. Cincinnati (NR), at Iowa State (No. 17)

Breakdown: At this point, the Wildcats need a lot of help to make the Big 12 title game. They’d need to win out obviously, which would give them a head-to-head victory over Iowa State, but they’d either need BYU to slip up twice or Colorado once to have a shot.

Group of Five

Boise State (7-1 overall, 4-0 Mountain West, No. 12 in CFP poll)

Remaining schedule: vs. Nevada (NR), at San Jose State (NR), at Wyoming (NR), vs. Oregon State (NR)

Breakdown: Boise State is the highest-ranked Group of Five team in the College Football Playoff rankings and thus is in the driver’s seat for the automatic bid. The Broncos will have to win out – including their conference championship – to make that dream a reality, though.

Army (8-0 overall, 6-0 AAC, No. 25 in CFP poll)

Remaining schedule: at North Texas (NR), at Notre Dame (No. 10), vs. UTSA (NR), Navy (will be after the CFP field is set so will not count toward the selection process)

Breakdown: Army is likely the only Group of Five team that can challenge Boise State for the bid if the Broncos win out. A huge neutral site game against Notre Dame is still on the table, and a win would do wonders for Army’s resume.

UNLV (6-2 overall, 2-1 Mountain West, NR in CFP poll)

Remaining schedule: at Hawaii (NR), vs. San Diego State (NR), at San Jose State (NR), vs. Nevada (NR)

Breakdown: UNLV has two Power Five wins to its credit so far and could get a rematch with Boise State in the Mountain West championship if it wins out. Getting the bid wouldn’t be a guarantee by any stretch, but it would give itself a big chance for a quality win.

Independent

Notre Dame (7-1 overall, No. 10 in CFP Poll)

Remaining schedule: vs. Florida State (NR), vs. Virginia (NR), vs. Army (No. 25), at USC (NR)

Breakdown: For the Fighting Irish, it’s pretty simple. Win out, and you’ll likely get into the CFP. Lose once, and risk missing out on the playoff entirely.