Ohio State’s entry into the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff and a first-round home game are both already secure.
College Football Playoff committee chairman Warde Manuel made it clear on Tuesday that teams who aren’t playing in conference championship games this weekend won’t be moving ahead of or behind each other in the final CFP field, which is set to be released Sunday at noon on ESPN. The Buckeyes landed at No. 6 in the latest batch of rankings, and although two conference champions are set to jump them and collect top-four seeds with first-round byes, OSU's floor (and current projection) is the eighth seed in the CFP.
That would have Ohio State hosting ninth-seeded Tennessee in the first round as it stands. But just because the Buckeyes aren’t playing doesn’t mean their seeding can’t be impacted by the results of this weekend. While Manuel said the evaluation of teams outside conference championship games will not change, the committee is still leaving the door open for its view of teams in those title tilts to adjust – be that positively or negatively. Manuel used No. 8 SMU, who is playing in the ACC Championship Game against No. 17 Clemson, as an example.
“Tennessee is ahead of SMU, Indiana is behind SMU; Tennessee will not drop below Indiana at any point. Neither team is playing,” Manuel said in a teleconference call after the CFP released its latest rankings. “But SMU could move up, depending on how we evaluate the game. They could stay where they are or they could move down depending on the outcome of the game.”
Four conference champions are guaranteed to be ahead of Ohio State. No. 4 Notre Dame, which does not belong to a conference and is idle this week with an 11-1 record, is a fifth team locked in front of the Buckeyes.
But Ohio State could land anywhere from the sixth to the eighth seed depending on the results of the Big Ten and SEC Championship Games and the committee’s decisions. It could play a range of opponents including No. 7 Tennessee, No. 8 SMU, No. 9 Indiana, No. 10 Boise State, No. 11 Alabama, the winner of the Big 12 Championship Game between No. 15 Arizona State and No. 16 Iowa State or even Clemson depending on how the rest of the slate shakes out.
THE UPDATED CFP BRACKET PROJECTION pic.twitter.com/5dB1gqvoD0
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Eleven Warriors is here to preview all the pandemonium and what it means vis a vis the Buckeyes in the playoffs.
Conference USA Championship Game: Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State, Friday at 7 p.m. on CBS Sports Network
Can it impact Ohio State? No
The warmup for more pivotal conference championship games is a rematch between two squads that played this past weekend. Western Kentucky quarterback Caden Veltkamp threw the ball 47 times, completing 28 for 301 yards and one touchdown that proved enough to win a defensive battle with Jacksonville State last Saturday 19-17. Coached by the famous (or infamous, depending on your allegiance) Rich Rodriguez, the Gamecocks are looking for a nice piece of hardware in just their second season playing at the FBS level. The Hilltoppers are seeking their third Conference USA title since joining the league in 2014.
Mountain West Championship Game: No. 20 UNLV vs. No. 10 Boise State, Friday at 8 p.m. on FOX
Can it impact Ohio State? Yes
As the rankings stand, Boise State is in line to receive a first-round bye thanks to its positioning above both teams in the Big 12 title game, Iowa State and Arizona State. A Bronco loss wouldn’t affect Ohio State’s seeding, as a new conference champion would take their place ahead of the Buckeyes. But it could impact OSU’s opponent if it moves up to the sixth seed – tangentially, anyway.
A scenario exists right now where the Big 12 champion leapfrogs a three-loss Alabama team for the 11th seed in the playoffs, setting up a clash with Ohio State if it climbs two spots. But should Boise State lose, the Big 12 champion would lock up the fourth seed and a first-round bye, sealing the Crimson Tide in as the 11th seed, with the 12th seed going to UNLV as the then-highest ranked Group of Five champion.
There’s also a case where Boise State wins close and the Big 12 winner jumps the Broncos anyway, taking their bye away and pitting them as a potential first-round opponent for Ohio State, likely as the 10th seed if the Buckeyes move up one spot.
On the field, it’s a chance to watch a Heisman Trophy contender in Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty (2,288 rushing yards in 2024) and a UNLV offense that ranks seventh nationally with 38.7 points per game. The Broncos beat the Rebels on the road on Oct. 25, winning 29-24. But their rematch is a de facto play-in game for the CFP.
AAC Championship Game: Tulane vs. No. 24 Army, Friday at 8 p.m. on ABC
Can it impact Ohio State? No
This one is for pride, hardware and a chance to be the second-highest-ranked Group of Five champion. Army is always a fun attack to watch with its triple option and stands at 10-1 on the year, set to play the Army/Navy game after it plays Tulane and before it plays its bowl game. The Green Wave’s high-flying offense (39.1 points per game) is led by a star quarterback and running back combo in Darian Mensah and Makhi Hughes, the former with 2,514 passing yards and the latter with 1,306 yards on the ground.
Big 12 Championship Game: No. 16 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Arizona State, Saturday at noon on ABC
Can it impact Ohio State? Yes
Of the conference title games that could have an impact on the Buckeyes, this is the least likely to do so. The only way it can is if Ohio State reaches the sixth seed and the Cyclones or Sun Devils win big enough to jump Alabama for the 11th seed in the playoffs. There's also a longshot chance the winner could jump Boise State for a first-round bye and change the seeding that way, knocking the Broncos into a position where they could play the Buckeyes.
That does nothing to lessen the allure of this matchup, however, the second de facto CFP play-in game of this weekend’s conference title slate. Neither team was expected to be in this spot at the start of the season but especially not Arizona State, which went 3-9 in 2023 and has a first-year head coach in Kenny Dillingham.
MAC Championship Game: Ohio vs. Miami (Ohio), Saturday at noon on ESPN
Can it impact Ohio State? No
The battle to be the second-best team in Ohio has no playoff implications, but it is once more a fun matchup for hardware and pride. DraftKings has a close line picked out for this one, with Miami just a two-point favorite, and both defenses rank top 20 in points allowed per game. The Redhawks bested the Bobcats at home earlier this year, 30-20.
SEC Championship Game: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 2 Texas, Saturday at 4 p.m. on ABC
Can it impact Ohio State? Yes
Texas holds an 11-1 record and will have only lost to Georgia this year if it falls in the SEC Championship Game, as the Bulldogs beat the Longhorns 30-15 on Oct. 19. Texas also holds a road win over Michigan, so the chance of Ohio State jumping ahead of the Longhorns if they lose on Saturday is essentially zero.
Georgia, however, went 10-2 in the regular season with losses to Alabama and No. 13 Ole Miss. The Bulldogs needed eight overtimes to beat unranked Georgia Tech in their rivalry game this past weekend, and Manuel indicated that Ohio State and UGA are close in the committee’s eyes.
"The two losses by Georgia were to ranked teams in Alabama and Mississippi, both on the road," Manuel said. "You look at Ohio State having two great wins, a loss on the road at Oregon, a loss at home. It was a great conversation, both of them having very strong offenses and very strong defenses. It was a back-and-forth between the two, and the outcome of the vote was really close in terms of where they fell. But the outcome of the vote had Georgia at No. 5 and Ohio State at No. 6."
Thus, Georgia is one of two teams Ohio State could jump to improve its seeding if the Bulldogs are handed a bad-enough loss by the Longhorns. Texas will need a better outing from its offensive line than it got against Georgia in October, however, as the Bulldogs recorded a first-half shutout and racked up seven sacks vs. the Burnt Orange in their first meeting.
Sun Belt Championship Game: Marshall vs. UL-Lafayette, Saturday at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Can it impact Ohio State? No
The Ragin’ Cajuns have raged all the way to 10 wins this year and face a foe Ohio State beat 49-14 earlier this season in Marshall. UL-Lafayette features the nation’s No. 15 scoring offense (35.6 points per game) piloted by veteran quarterback Ben Wooldridge, but must contend with one of the nation’s elite edge rushers in Mike Green, second in the country with 16 sacks this season.
Big Ten Championship Game: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 1 Oregon, Saturday at 8 p.m. on CBS
Can it impact Ohio State? Yes
Despite its top-three ranking, Penn State is the team most likely to slip behind Ohio State with a conference championship loss, for obvious reasons as the Buckeyes beat them in Happy Valley earlier in 2024. The Nittany Lions would have one extra win on their docket over OSU, but they only possess one win over a team in the current CFP top 25, a 21-7 victory against No. 21 Illinois in September.
On top of its head-to-head advantage, Ohio State also holds up in the résumé discussion with Penn State, holding two top-10 wins over the Nittany Lions and Indiana. Oregon is 12-0 with a head-to-head victory over the Buckeyes, so a Ducks title game loss won’t do OSU any favors.
“Big Game” James Franklin has a chance to rewrite some narratives about his ability to win top-10 games if he and his Penn State squad can knock off the nation’s No. 1 team. The Nittany Lions’ notorious lack of options at wide receiver could harm them against the Ducks’ eighth-ranked passing defense, aided by Oregon’s 39 sacks, which is best in the Big Ten.
If Penn State loses a close game with Oregon and doesn’t fall behind Ohio State, it could set up a potential Bucks and Ducks rematch in the CFP quarterfinals should the Buckeyes remain the eighth seed and win their first-round game, as Oregon would undoubtedly be the bracket’s top seed.
ACC Championship Game: No. 17 Clemson vs. No. 8 SMU, Saturday at 8 p.m. on ABC
Can it impact Ohio State? Yes
Much like the SEC and Big Ten Championship games, this only changes things for Ohio State if one team wins, and that team is Clemson. If SMU wins it will receive the third seed and a first-round bye in all likelihood, changing nothing for Ohio State in terms of its seeding or who it will play in the first round.
Should Clemson win, however, there’s a lot of shuffling that will happen in the 12-team field. The Tigers – to borrow a term from the NCAA Basketball Tournament – could be a “bid-stealer” that knocks an additional squad currently projected to be in out of the playoff, that squad being Alabama. It would come down to a debate between the Mustangs and Crimson Tide for the seventh and final at-large berth, with the Tigers being one of the five conference champions to grab an automatic spot.
More chaos can be heaped on top if Boise State also loses to UNLV in the Mountain West Championship Game, as then Clemson would get the fourth seed and a first-round bye.
If both the Tigers and the Broncos win and Clemson doesn’t get a top-four seed but vaults Alabama and SMU for the 11th seed, Dabo Swinney’s outfit could become Ohio State’s opponent if the Buckeyes move up to the sixth seed. The Mustangs could also be a potential opponent for Ohio State as the No. 11 seed if they lose.
