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Handicapping the B1G's Football Teams in 2021

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iowabuckeyes's picture
April 10, 2021 at 2:36pm
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Per OddsShark.com, here are the current odds for B1G teams to win the 2021 national championship, which I'm also correlating to their chances of winning their respective divisions and the B1G championship. No surprise, Ohio State is projected to be the conference's best team, followed by Wisconsin. 

B1G East: 1) Ohio State, +500; 2) Michigan, +5000; 3) Penn State, +5500; 4) Indiana, +20000; 5) Michigan State, +25000; 6) Maryland and Rutgers, both +50000.

  • Ohio State needs no discussion. I think we'd all be shocked of the Buckeyes don't win the B1G, much less the East.
  • I don't get the confidence for Michigan at #2--almost an entirely new staff (DC, QB, RB, LB, CB and safety coaches are all new hires) plus a lot of kids have jumped ship from a team that grossly underwhelmed last year; their OL could start five seniors/grad students, most of whom started last year, and it could be the same secondary that finished 96th in passing yards allowed. Harbaugh went 2-4 and needed three OTs against Rutgers and avoid losing his last five games. They have experience; the question is can they make the leap or are they limited by a lack of talent and athleticism? Michigan opens at home against Western Michigan, which averaged 42 ppg last year, then hosts Washington (which is also +5000).
  • Penn State feels like a smarter bet for #2. The Nits started 0-4 but rebounded to finish 4-0. Except for TE Pat Freiermuth, their top receivers all return and 6-0/230 RB Keyvone Lee could be a force--nearly 80% of his rushing yards came in PSU's last four games, which were all wins. They are young on offense, which means senior QB Sean Clifford's maturation as a leader and game manager will be the key--they don't have Will Levis as a backup plan. The back seven should be the defense's strength with Joey Porter emerging as a breakout star.
  • You can never underestimate the importance of a dynamic (but healthy) QB: Indiana and Maryland will go as far as Michael Penix and Taulia Tagovailoa, respectively, can take them. I'd rank both teams higher than Michigan. No team may have more heart and outpunch its weight class than Tom Allen's bunch, while UMD has more talent but has yet to show it has any heart.
  • I personally think MSU will repeat as the worst team in the East and possibly the conference--they were outscored almost 2:1 last year. The level of improvement the Spartans will have to show seems daunting. To think their odds are 2x of winning the NC as good as UMD and Rutgers seems like a joke.
  • Rutgers and Schiano are at least year and a QB away from competing for the East's top half but they can make a dent this year--Noah Vedral was a nice surprise but he's not the guy who's going to take them to the next level. There's no reason the State University of New Jersey can't beat MSU again; it has a winnable OOC schedule (Temple, Syracuse, Delaware) plus @Illinois and @Northwestern as two of their three crossover games. The Knights could go 1-5 in the East and still finish with a .500 record.

B1G West: 1) Wisconsin, +4500; 2) Iowa, +20000, 3) Nebraska, Purdue and Minnesota, all +25000; 6) Illinois and Northwestern, both +50000.

  • Wisconsin seems a no brainer. Good coaching, stout defense, you know what to expect--no superstars, the Badgers are the poster child for team play. QB Graham Mertz and RB Jalen Berger need to take the next step. Their returning LBs may be the best in the conference.
  • Iowa seems a safe bet at #2. The Hawkeyes will be typically unimaginative and plodding on offense, tough on defense. They will lost two games they should win. They host Indiana in their season opener and then go to Iowa State.--they could very easily start the year 0-2. Their other crossover games are @Maryland and PSU.
  • I don't get Nebraska--who could have any confidence in Adrian Martinez and Scott Frost in their fourth year together? And Luke McCaffrey has transferred to Louisville. The OL seems young, inexperienced and thin--in its projected two-deep, OurLads.com has holes at LT and RG plus freshmen or sophomores projected at the other three spots.
  • Purdue and Minnesota feel right. They could surprise either way: win the division or finish dead last. Purdue could have the B1G's second best set of WRs in David Bell and Milton Wright. The Gophers are a dangerous opponent for Ohio State to open the season against on the road.
  • On the surface, +50000 for Northwestern seems high considering they were 7-2 last year and played in the B1G CCG. No one does more with less than Pat Fitzgerald but last year he had Peyton Ramsey at QB; now, they're back to Hunter Johnson and Andrew Marty, who were Fitz's options back in 2019. It's not unreasonable to expect the Wildcats to regress and revert back to 2019's form.
  • Illinois has Bert. 'Nuff said--it should be fun to watch what that goofball does in Champaign. I only wish the Buckeyes were playing the Illini. It's too bad that when Wisconsin plays Illinois on October 9, the game won't be played in Madison. I hope Badger fans swarm Memorial Stadium and ride Bert's ass like the Pig Sooie he is.

As always, thoughts are welcome and encouraged. Please keep it civil.

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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