Week 11 Thread: https://www.elevenwarriors.com/forum/college-sports/2024/11/150382/fake-bcs-rankings-week-11
Edit: Added in last night's CFP Rankings to the table
Once again, Anderson and Hester have not released rankings and I have doubts as to whether they will at all this season. Seeing their page gushing over TTUN finishing on top last season makes me sick. Please update for this year so I don't have to seem them on your site ever again. Thanks.
Anyways....
We got 4 teams in the top 5! And I'm usually one to complain about the SEC's 8 game conference schedule essentially removing half a loss on average from each team and propping their aggregate strengths of schedule up. And yet the SEC is cannibalizing themselves quite well despite this. Meanwhile in the Big Ten, Ohio State plays all 3 of the other contenders while none of the other 3 play each other at all. And we'll have to play Oregon twice potentially. Who thought that we could end up with 4 top 5 matchups in one season (and TTUN not be one of them?)
| Team | Conf | Record | BCS Rank | BCS Average | AP Poll | AP Avg | Coaches | Coaches Avg | Computer | Computer Avg | CFP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | B10 | 10-0 | 1 | 1.0000 | 1 | 1.0000 | 1 | 1.0000 | 1 | 1.0000 | 1 |
| Ohio St | B10 | 8-1 | 2 | 0.9444 | 2 | 0.9574 | 2 | 0.9556 | 2 | 0.9200 | 2 |
| Texas | SEC | 8-1 | 3 | 0.8712 | 3 | 0.9090 | 3 | 0.9178 | 5 | 0.7867 | 3 |
| Indiana | B10 | 10-0 | 4 | 0.8189 | 5 | 0.8213 | 6 | 0.7687 | 3 | 0.8667 | 5 |
| Penn St | B10 | 8-1 | 5 | 0.8016 | 4 | 0.8219 | 5 | 0.8095 | 6 | 0.7733 | 4 |
| BYU | B12 | 9-0 | 6 | 0.7795 | 7 | 0.7490 | 8 | 0.7229 | 3 | 0.8667 | 6 |
| Tennessee | SEC | 8-1 | 7 | 0.7268 | 6 | 0.8194 | 4 | 0.8276 | 13 | 0.5333 | 7 |
| Notre Dame | FBSI | 8-1 | 8 | 0.7049 | 8 | 0.7065 | 7 | 0.7549 | 10 | 0.6533 | 8 |
| Alabama | SEC | 7-2 | 9 | 0.6985 | 9 | 0.6684 | 9 | 0.6538 | 6 | 0.7733 | 10 |
| Georgia | SEC | 7-2 | 10 | 0.6579 | 11 | 0.6219 | 10 | 0.6451 | 8 | 0.7067 | 12 |
| Mississippi | SEC | 8-2 | 11 | 0.6203 | 10 | 0.6232 | 11 | 0.6378 | 12 | 0.6000 | 11 |
| Miami FL | ACC | 9-1 | 12 | 0.6161 | 12 | 0.5852 | 12 | 0.5964 | 9 | 0.6667 | 9 |
| SMU | ACC | 8-1 | 13 | 0.5414 | 14 | 0.5084 | 13 | 0.5025 | 11 | 0.6133 | 14 |
| Boise St | MWC | 8-1 | 14 | 0.5124 | 13 | 0.5413 | 13 | 0.5025 | 14 | 0.4933 | 13 |
| Texas A&M | SEC | 7-2 | 15 | 0.4319 | 15 | 0.4348 | 15 | 0.4342 | 15 | 0.4267 | 15 |
| Clemson | ACC | 7-2 | 16 | 0.3404 | 17 | 0.3381 | 16 | 0.3898 | 18 | 0.2933 | 20 |
| Washington St | P12 | 8-1 | 17 | 0.2892 | 19 | 0.2942 | 18 | 0.2800 | 18 | 0.2933 | 18 |
| Army | AAC | 9-0 | 18 | 0.2720 | 16 | 0.3439 | 17 | 0.3389 | 24 | 0.1333 | 24 |
| Kansas St | B12 | 7-2 | 19 | 0.2677 | 20 | 0.2148 | 19 | 0.2415 | 16 | 0.3467 | 16 |
| Colorado | B12 | 7-2 | 20 | 0.2593 | 18 | 0.2987 | 20 | 0.2393 | 22 | 0.2400 | 17 |
| LSU | SEC | 6-3 | 21 | 0.2215 | 21 | 0.1710 | 22 | 0.1869 | 17 | 0.3067 | 22 |
| Louisville | ACC | 6-3 | 22 | 0.1714 | 22 | 0.1548 | 24 | 0.0793 | 20 | 0.2800 | 19 |
| South Carolina | SEC | 6-3 | 23 | 0.1612 | 23 | 0.1310 | 23 | 0.0858 | 21 | 0.2667 | 21 |
| Missouri | SEC | 7-2 | 24 | 0.1539 | 24 | 0.1135 | 21 | 0.2015 | 23 | 0.1467 | 23 |
| Iowa St | B12 | 7-2 | 25 | 0.0510 | NR | 0.0594 | 25 | 0.0669 | NR | 0.0267 | NR |
CFP Seedings:
- Oregon
- Texas
- BYU
- Miami FL
- Ohio State
- Indiana
- Penn State
- Tennessee
- Notre Dame
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Boise State
Resulting Matchups:
- Notre Dame (8, 0.7049) at Tennessee (7, 0.7268) - Winner plays Oregon (1, 1.0000)
- Boise State (14, 0.5124) at Ohio State (2, 0.9444) - Winner plays Miami FL (12, 0.6161)
- Georgia (10, 0.6579) at Indiana (4, 0.8189) - Winner plays BYU (6, 0.7795)
- Alabama (9, 0.6985) at Penn State (5, 0.8016) - Winner plays Texas (3, 0.8712)
For the matchups, I noted the BCS Ranking and average in parenthesis rather than their playoff seeding to help visualize the relative strength of each team and matchup. Other than having to play Oregon in the semi-finals, it's clear to see that Ohio State would have a very easy path, and it's better to have your toughest matchup in the semis vs the championship game anyway, as you have more time to prepare and are fresher. Especially if you have to end up playing an extra game as we would.
What's striking to me about these rankings is the space between #1 and #2, which is quite rare, and then the space between #2 and #3 and then #3 and #4. You don't normally have as clear cut of a top 3 as we see here. Then Indiana and Penn State do not have a lot of distance between them at 4/5 which we'd expect at this point, then BYU stands out at 6, then we have a fairly tight grouping between Tennessee at 7 through Miami at 12. Typically you have 0.04 between each rank with #1 at 0.98 or so, #2 at 0.94, #3 at 0.90, etc. Ohio State is right on target, with Texas quite a bit lower than a typical #3, and Indiana and Penn State also lower than the typical 4/5. I'm not sure if that means there is more parity or just more chaos this season than what we normally expect.
Last week I successfully predicted that Ohio State would be #2 in the CFP rankings, though it's completely inconsequential. We either get the #1 by beating Oregon (and Indiana along the way) or we get the #5 (provided Indiana doesn't bump us down to #6). We don't have the BCS rankings differing from the CFP much besides BYU being devalued, despite the computers loving them so far. I could see BYU as low as 8 in the CFP this week, but last week they were above Notre Dame so I could see that continuing with BYU at 7, which is only 1 different than the BCS at this point.
