Current line: ND -1 (opened at UGA -1).
This morning, Greg McElroy and Cole Cubelic discussed Notre Dame (ND) and Georgia (UGA), describing both as having "great defenses." They expressed concern that ND might struggle to establish the run game. However, McElroy highlighted the explosiveness of ND's running backs, Jeremiah Love and Jadarian Price, noting that their home-run ability could exploit moments when UGA's defense is not gap-sound.
The analysts dismissed UGA's struggles against Georgia Tech's run game, arguing that ND’s offensive scheme is entirely different. They suggested the Yellowjackets' ground attack is an anomaly and not a relevant comparison. But is this assessment fair?
One could argue that UGA's claim to being a "great defense" is almost entirely based on its two performances against Texas, an enigmatic offense. Among the remaining elite playoff contenders, UGA’s run defense may be the biggest single liability. Their struggles weren’t limited to the Georgia Tech game or its "unicorn" run game—they’ve had issues in other matchups as well—against just a so-so slate of rushing attacks:
| Opponent | Rush Yds Allowed (per carry ave) | Opponents current rush yds/game rank |
|---|---|---|
| Clemson | 46 yards (2.0 per carry) | 48th |
| Tenn Tech | 116 (2.9) | FCS |
| UK | 170 (3.8) | 81st |
| Alabama | 177 (5.9) | 47th |
| Auburn | 137 (4.4) | 62nd |
| Miss St | 79 (3.0) | 87th |
| Texas (R1) | 29 (1.1) | 63rd |
| Florida | 115 (3.0) | 69th |
| Ole Miss | 134 (3.7) | 44th |
| Tennessee | 146 (3.7) | 9th |
| UMass | 226 (5.7) | 118th |
| G Tech | 260 (5.5) | 33rd |
| Texas (R2) | 31 (1.1) | 63rd |
UGA did well against Clemson and Tennessee, winning both games handily. But they struggled against UK, Alabama, and UMass, none of which run G Tech's unicorn offense.
Either ND should be able to run the ball against UGA today, or UGA will have to commit extra resources to run defense that may allow ND's mediocre pass attack to come to life.
Am I picking ND to win? Yes, but with some hesitation. Gunner Stockton is a wildcard—he could have a breakout performance. While I wouldn’t count on it, I’d also be cautious about placing a heavy bet on ND. UGA’s passing game arguably has a higher ceiling than ND’s.
