Finally, the Blue Jays of Johns Hopkins are in the position everyone assumed they would take when the program joined the Big Ten as an affiliate member. Ohio State welcomes the league leaders for a Sunday night soiree at 7 p.m. While this will likely be closer than Jays fans would like, I don't foresee a scenario where the Buckeyes win.
Offensively, Johns Hopkins relies on Jacob Angelus (#23) to feed, while Garrett Degnon (#40) scores the goals. Angelus leads the Jays with 47 points, while Degnon is their leading goalscorer with 34 tallies. No one else on Johns Hopkins has more than Angelus' 18 goals. There are a couple of depth pieces, but the Jays ride their studs.
As a team, Johns Hopkins is shooting nearly 32%, an elite number, amd gets over the 60% threshold for shots on goal. The Jays are scoring almost 13 goals per game, which I would actually expect to be a little higher, based on their other other metrics. In short, this is maybe the second-best offensive team Ohio State has played this year. Caleb Fyock has his work cut out for him.
Defensively, Johns Hopkins finally got a goalkeeper to put them over the top. Much like Ohio State, the Jays regularly got let down by bad goalies. This year, Cornell transfer Chayse Ierlan (#22) has boosted an already solid defense into elite status. The Jays are likely to start Quintan Kilrain (#6), Scott Smith (#18), and Beaudan Szuluk (#44) in front of Ierlan this evening.
As a unit, the Jays have held opponents to just .260 shooting, a very poor standard. Where Johns Hopkins has run into trouble is allowing opponents to take more shots than the most elite teams do. Ohio State lost to Maryland because they were held well below 30 shots. Johns Hopkins opponents average in the mid-30s. Ohio State, as it has all year, needs volume shooting to keep this game close.
At faceoff, Johns Hopkins is bad. Sitting under 50% on the year, the Jays win more than 50% of draws taken by Logan Callahan (#5). They lose far more than 50% when Callahan isn't at the dot. For Ohio State to win, as per usual, then need to be in the 55%+ range. I don't know if the Buckeyes have it in them, at this point.
On special teams, Johns Hopkins is above 40% on both Man Up and Man Down. The Jays are really good on offense, which makes sense given their other metrics. But Johns Hopkins isn't good when down a man. That's not what you want to see if you're a Jays fan. The Buckeyes can steal a goal or two if the Jays play undisciplined.
The story of Ohio State men's lacrosse has been one of hone/road splits. On the road, for the past few years at least, the Buckeyes are awful. The final two games are at home, in Ohio State's new digs. Both these games will be packed with OSU fans. And I think that will give the Buckeyes some juice early in this contest. But I really don't think that Johns Hopkins can be kept down long enough to not score more than Ohio State. The Buckeyes had their best shooting day of the season last week against Maryland, and still only scored 7 goals. This week, I think they'll score more than 7. But it won't matter.
Final prediction: Johns Hopkins 16, Ohio State 12.
Go Bucks!
Game is at 7 p.m., on BTN.
