It doesn't all come down to this. But tomorrow's game means a lot. Ohio State has played really, really well lately. A massive hiccup in game one, a close one for no reason against Bryant. But overall, great season so far. The Denver win, from what I can tell, really was a boat race. There was a bit of fisticuffs which resulted in 2 Denver goals, and Fyock struggled tracking the ball, but overall it wasn't as close as the 15-11 score indicated.
Tomorrow, we see what the Buckeyes can do in a game against a real top 5 team. Penn State has dogged them for years. The Nittany Lions are always tough, especially in Happy Valley. Going to be a nailbiter all game, I reckon. That's assuming some of Penn State's injured players returns. If the Nittany Lions remain shorthanded, this math changes fast.
Attack
Stars Matt Traynor and Ryan DiRocco have been out for the past couple of games. If they're back, Ohio State has their hands full. If they are not, things look much, much better for the Buckeyes. Penn State has long been an attack heavy team on offense, and removing two of the very best players in the country at that position can only help the Buckeyes. Will Peden (#12) has been the mainstay down low, while Liam Matthews (#51) has occupied a shooter's role very, very well. There's no free rides even if Penn State's stars are out. The Nittany Lions attack SSDM matches up relentlessly to get open shots. Buckeyes will need to be on their toes.
Midfield
True freshman Hunter Aquino (#23) has been the best freshman midfielder, maybe offensive player, in the country this season. Flat out. Aquino is huge (6'5"), and is actually more of an assist threat than goalscorer. He makes defenses rotate, and that opens up the attackmen. Jack Aimone (#55) is a transfer from Rutgers who is another scoring threat out of the box. The Buckeye LSMs and SSDMs are in for a long, tough day.
Defense
Penn State is holding teams under 9 goals per game this year. Granted, that number isn't quite as good with the injury issues the Nittany Lions have faced recently. But still, there are no easy roads here. Kevin Parnham (#16) is a physical force, and the entire unit will hit you hard on the slide. Penn State likes to be aggressive, and the Buckeyes will need to move the ball quickly to stay out of trouble. Teams are shooting just .255 against Penn State, which is astonishing in the shot clock era. Buckeyes have their toughest test yet in terms of scoring. Jack Fracyon (#11) is right at 55% on saves this year, and is stopping 10 shots a game. The D is stout.
Faceoff
Penn State is dominating at the dot, winning 60% of the draws and wearing teams out. Jack Oldman has played incredibly well since game 1, and will need to be a warrior tomorrow to make this game winnable. Less than 45% is a disaster for the Buckeyes. The ball needs to be in the hands of the Scarlet and Gray, or this could get out of hand. Penn State is a tournament team without its injured stars, and is a Final Four team with all of them healthy.
Overall
Ohio State and Penn State come into this matchup with tremendous winning streaks. Both teams are defensively very physical. Penn State, when healthy, is a better offensive team in terms of depth and scheme. Penn State, if they're still missing stars tomorrow, is going to be a weakened team. How weak is up to Ohio State. Fyock tends to play well against Penn State. The rest of the team can be iffy. I think the Buckeyes are starting to put it together on offense. The defense is really good. Ari Allen has taken on the role of defensive enforcer, and is showing us all a totally new side of his game. It's a shame he waited this long to switch to D.
Assuming the same lineups as the last two weeks, I think Ohio State has enough to get it done. All of the Ohio State poles are really, really, really good. The matchups favor Ohio State that way. Aquino gets the LSM, there are no weak close defenders, and you get down to Aimone and the depth to try to score. That's a problem for Penn State.
If Traynor and DiRocco return, things change. Probably a lot, depending on the injuries. But we're going to think happy thoughts for once, and say the Buckeyes win.
Final prediction: Ohio State 11, Penn State 9.
Suck it, haters.
Go Bucks!
Game is at 7 p.m. EDT on BTN. Not Plus this time! Hooray!