If you have been watching college football for a while, you have probably heard "defense wins championships." But does this still ring true with today’s high-powered offenses? Even Nick Saban said in 2020, “Good defense doesn't beat good offense anymore.”
Here’s some data to consider. I am looking at championship teams since 2007 and comparing whether their defense (D) was ranked higher than their offense (O) in the final F+ rankings. Unfortunately, I can only go back to 2007 with this data.
| Year | Champion | O ranking | D ranking | D above O? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Michigan* | 6 | 1 | Y |
| 2022 | Georgia | 2 | 1 | Y |
| 2021 | Georgia | 3 | 1 | Y |
| 2020 | Alabama | 1 | 16 | N |
| 2019 | LSU | 2 | 13 | N |
| 2018 | Clemson | 5 | 3 | Y |
| 2017 | Alabama | 9 | 2 | Y |
| 2016 | Clemson | 2 | 8 | N |
| 2015 | Alabama | 18 | 1 | Y |
| 2014 | OSU | 2 | 15 | N |
| 2013 | FSU | 1 | 2 | N |
| 2012 | Alabama | 4 | 1 | Y |
| 2011 | Alabama | 11 | 1 | Y |
| 2010 | Auburn | 2 | 29 | N |
| 2009 | Alabama | 7 | 1 | Y |
| 2008 | Florida | 4 | 1 | Y |
| 2007 | LSU | 6 | 5 | Y |
A few key observations:
- The last three champs had the number one defense.
- Every champion since 2007 was elite (top-two) on at least one side of the ball, offense or defense.
- Teams where the defense was ranked ahead of the offense have won 11 out of 17 championships.
- The trend from 2013 to 2020 leaned more towards offenses, with five out of eight champions having a better-rated offense.
Here is my take. While a standout offense like LSU’s in 2019 can win championships, having an elite defense seems to be a more reliable formula. The old saying "defense wins championships" is still standing strong, especially considering the last three years. If Jim Knowles puts together a top-two defense and the offense stays in the top ten, OSU could very well take it all regardless of who the QB is.
I would like to hear from fellow 11W readers about their thoughts on the (relative) importance of defense in today's college football.
(Mod Edit: As this is a broader discussion topic than just TOSU, have moved to the College Sports Forum.)
