Hello everyone, I recently decided to watch film for both teams because I was bored and am excited for this game. I watched every game from both teams and also watched some breakdowns from other guys who have posted them online and here are my observations, matchup breakdowns, and score predictions! Let me know what you guys think!
Ohio State Run Defense vs. Texas Run Game
Texas relies heavily on the outside zone as their primary run scheme, building much of their offense around it. They’ve succeeded with this approach against teams whose defensive lines don’t move horizontally well but have struggled against more athletic and disciplined fronts. Their offensive line often fails to execute assignments at a high level and appears stubborn in sticking to the scheme despite its limitations.
Blue and Wisner are explosive backs, but Blue has shown issues with ball security, and Quinn Ewers isn’t a significant threat in the run game. Meanwhile, Ohio State is arguably the best in the country at defending the stretch/outside zone. J.T. and Jack Sawyer excel at setting the edge, they are probably the best in the country and healthy Tyleik Williams also disrupts plays with penetration. The linebackers and safeties are extremely disciplined, athletic, and quick to trigger their run fits, making it difficult for opponents to find running lanes.
Unless Texas completely overhauls their run scheme, this matchup heavily favors Ohio State. Even if adjustments are made, Ohio State’s run defense has been consistent all year, making this the biggest mismatch in the game in my opinion.
Ohio State Pass Defense vs. Texas Pass Offense
Texas incorporates RPOs and screens aggressively, not just as an extension of their run game but as a way to generate big plays. Quinn Ewers shines on short-to-intermediate throws, showing elite arm strength and accuracy within 20 yards. His ability to attack the middle of the field, especially with targets like Gunnar Helm at tight end and receivers Isaiah Bond and Matthew Golden, makes him dangerous.
However, Ewers struggles with deep passes, particularly outside the numbers, where his completion percentage is poor. His mechanics might be the issue, as he tends to float deep throws despite his arm strength. Another concern is his difficulty reading disguised pressures—he thrives when blitzes are obvious but struggles to locate his “hot” throws under complex blitz schemes. I also believe he may be injured as his mobility has been limited recently, making him less effective at extending plays.
Texas’s offensive line surprisingly also has notable issues in pass protection, particularly in 1-on-1 matchups and communication, resulting in a high number of sacks. I was surprised to see this after hearing that their Tackles were projected first rounders. This plays into Ohio State’s strengths. After the Oregon loss, they began transitioning to a hybrid Tampa 2 scheme. Ohio State’s pass defense has become more versatile as a result. Caleb Downs, playing a key role as a hybrid safety/mike, disrupts RPOs and screens by triggering downhill quickly while still protecting the deep middle. They use him as a weapon and this disciplined approach helps the Buckeyes counter misdirection and trick plays effectively. Especially with Ransom, and Simon also being an extremely effective and disciplined tacklers who trigger quickly.
While Texas absolutely has the talent to challenge Ohio State, the matchup leans in favor of the Buckeyes. Ohio State’s ability to limit Texas’s run game will likely force the Longhorns into obvious passing downs, making them more predictable. Having said that, Ewers has shown in the past that he can spin it. They will likely have at least a few drives where they throw it well.
Ohio State Run Offense vs. Texas Run Defense
Since the meat chicken game, Ohio State has leaned into counter and gap-scheme runs. While some suggest they’ve adopted a new playbook, the reality is that Ryan Day has simplified the offense to focus on concepts the team executes best. Earlier in the season, the Buckeyes struggled with too much variety in their run game, compounded by injuries and inconsistent offensive line play. Chip loves to have an extremely diverse run game. I just think the sickness in fall camp had just really limited the practice time from the jump, and then the season injuries made it worse. They just weren’t able to execute that many different concepts. They decided to narrow their focus, and the offensive line has been able to play faster and more confidently. This also run scheme also suits TreVeyon Henderson’s running style.
However, this simplification comes at a cost: predictability. While Ohio State has run effectively in recent games, this has been against defenses playing light boxes to prioritize stopping the pass. The Buckeyes have used their passing game to set up the run rather than the other way around. The offensive line is also still the weakness of this team. They’ve played and executed better, but the issues are still there.
Texas, on the other hand, boasts a strong defensive line and run defense, giving them the edge in this matchup. For Ohio State to succeed on the ground, they’ll need to rely on the passing game to loosen up the Texas front. If it comes down to “having” to run, we might see Howard used more in designed runs to help with numbers in the box if they struggle.
Ohio State Passing Game vs. Texas Pass Defense
This is the most intriguing matchup of the game by far. Since the meat chicken loss, Ohio State has made key adjustments in their passing game, particularly by expanding Jeremiah Smith’s role. Early in the season, Smith was mostly stationed at the X receiver spot and wasn’t asked to do as much, likely to simplify things for the freshman. However, after a pivotal conversation with the coaching staff, Smith has been moving around more, utilizing a broader range of concepts similar to those designed for Marvin Harrison Jr. last year.
Another major change is the improvement in quarterback Howard’s mechanics, likely due to increased work with Ryan Day. I don’t think Day had as much time to work with the QB’s during the season. Howard’s footwork has improved significantly, allowing him to throw deep with better accuracy and velocity. Earlier in the season, his deep balls often fell short due to poor lower-body mechanics, but in the last two games, he’s demonstrated the ability to make any throw on the field.
If Howard continues to play at this level—making smart decisions and spreading the ball effectively—Ohio State’s passing attack will be extremely difficult to stop. That said, he is still prone to forcing the ball to Smith at times, which can lead to turnovers. It’s worked out so far because of how great JJ is, but Texas secondary is very good. Could be something to keep an eye on.
On paper, Texas has the best pass defense in the country. They run a lot of Cover 3 and rely heavily on their defensive ends to generate pressure. Their pass rushers are the best Ohio State has faced all season, and their secondary features the best safety and cornerback the Buckeyes will see. Ohio State’s offensive line remains their weakest unit, which could spell trouble if Texas consistently gets pressure on Howard.
The Cover 3 scheme Texas employs asks a lot of their corners, often leaving them in single coverage on islands. If Texas’s defensive line can’t disrupt Howard, Ohio State’s receiving corps—featuring Smith, Emeka Egbuka, and Carnell Tate—should have success moving the ball through the air. However, if Texas consistently wins at the line of scrimmage, it could force turnovers and make life much harder for the Buckeyes.
This matchup feels like the ultimate chess match and will likely determine the outcome of the game.
Ss, final thoughts time. Ohio State’s defensive strengths—particularly their ability to stop the run—give them the upper hand. On offense, the Buckeyes have shown improvements, but the battle between Ohio State’s passing game and Texas’s pass defense is the most pivotal aspect of this matchup. If Texas can get sacks consistently, this game will be closer. It will be low scoring and will probably still need turnover luck, some trick plays, special teams help and creative coaching (similar to the first Oregon matchup) to win. If the line holds up, like it has been, this one could get ugly fast.
Prediction: Ohio State 38, Texas 17
