Does anyone else think it's odd that Vegas has us favored by almost a touchdown but the ESPN Matchup Predictor has it as a toss-up, with Texas as a slight favorite? In the past, I've seen 6-point favorites are predicted to win by around 75/25 or so. I realize that one represents actual bets being placed and the other is a statistical model of game performance, but the disconnect is odd. We're #1 FPI and our SOR and SOS are also higher than Texas's.

Does anyone know how the Matchup Predictor is calculated? I've read around a little bit (enough to know not to trust it) but as a quant guy I'm curious where that 50.5% number is coming from. Why is Texas favored by the predictor? What's it picking up on or emphasizing differently than other metrics?