The stakes don’t get much higher.
It’s win or go home for No. 7 seed Ohio State and No. 10 seed Loyola, who both put it all on the line Friday in Pittsburgh during a first-round NCAA Tournament matchup at 12:15 p.m. at PPG Paints Arena. The two teams have been trending in opposite directions as of late, with Ohio State losing four of its last five and the Ramblers winning five of its last six. But the Buckeyes remain the seed-line favorite with a chance to silence their critics after a rough stretch that has included injuries to multiple key players.
| WHO | WHERE | WHEN | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loyola (25-7, 13-5 MVC) | PPG Paints Arena | 12:15 p.m. | CBS |
“Rough couple weeks, but we had to all buy in. We made it to March Madness, and now we have to prove ourselves, honestly,” Buckeye forward E.J. Liddell said Thursday. “We have to have that underdog mentality because I feel like a lot of people have been counting us out recently. I feel like people forgot about how we play when we're fully healthy and we're all locked into everything. Come tomorrow, y'all will see a different team.”
Loyola won the MVC Tournament championship this past weekend and is hungry to make a second straight deep run in the NCAA Tournament after making it to the Sweet 16 last year, when it knocked off No. 1 seed Illinois in the process.
The Ramblers, who also made the Final Four in 2017-18, will have to do so under new leadership, as first-year head coach Drew Valentine enters his first-ever NCAA Tournament in command of a program. But given the experience the team returns from last year’s run, it should have a shot at giving the Buckeyes all they can handle as the Big Dance begins.
What to Watch For
Will Young, Key play?
As of Thursday night, the availability of injured Buckeye bigs Kyle Young and Zed Key was still yet to be determined, as both remained limited in Ohio State’s open practice period at PPG Paints Arena on Thursday afternoon. Young has missed the last three games with a concussion, and Key has missed three of the past four games with an ankle injury. Neither participated in any drill that required running up and down the floor in the Buckeyes’ open practice, but Holtmann said both players’ condition has been improving over the past few days.
If both can go, Ohio State should have a marked advantage on the interior, as Loyola doesn’t have any player over 6-foot-7 who has played more than 20 minutes per game.
“We're getting healthier. We'll know more on Kyle and Zed here tomorrow, but they are getting healthier,” Holtmann said. “The final decision will be made tomorrow. ... We have seen them do a little more, but it's not like they've been able to do full practices. But they have been able to do a little more, which has been encouraging to see despite not being able to do full practices.”
Key and Young are off the sideline while the Buckeyes do shooting drills running up and down the court: pic.twitter.com/tk6jJT8V8f
— Griffin Strom (@GriffinStrom3) March 17, 2022
Zed Key moving gingerly on his ankle, to say the least. pic.twitter.com/sip3NyF8TH
— Griffin Strom (@GriffinStrom3) March 17, 2022
Ramblers defense
Ranked No. 22 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency by KenPom, the Ramblers butter their bread on defense, where they’ve allowed just 61.7 points per game, good for 17th-best in the nation.
The Ramblers are led by two-time MVC defensive player of the year Lucas Williamson, who could give problems to Buckeye freshman Malaki Branham on the perimeter. Loyola may have a tougher time matching up with the Buckeyes’ bigs should Young, Key or both be available, but the Ramblers make up for their lack of size with a level of physicality that Holtmann said compares favorably to just about any team Ohio State has played this year.
“We're playing an outstanding team, an outstanding program in Loyola. Got tremendous respect for what they've done, how hard their kids play, how physical they are. I think they're as hard-playing and physical as any team that we've played all year,” Holtmann said. “They're really as good as any team we've played all year, there's no question about it. They've just got older guys who are really good players, tremendous culture, well-coached. It's a great challenge for us here. Certainly it's as challenging a first game as I've been a part of.”
Have Buckeyes tightened up on D?
Holtmann has harped on it ad nauseam. Ohio State’s defense, which ranks 128th in the country in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency category, has simply not been good enough to give the Buckeyes a chance to win close games down the stretch. Penn State might have scored only 71 points in Ohio State’s last outing, but the Nittany Lions scored 47 of those in the second half alone, in which they shot 61.5 percent.
Loyola’s offense ranks 30 spots below the Buckeyes when it comes to adjusted efficiency, but Ohio State has given up big nights to much worse offenses this season. Perhaps the eight days Ohio State has had to rest up in between games will allow for an improved performance on defense on Friday, because if not, it might be Ohio State’s Achilles heel once again.
Three Important Buckeyes
E.J. Liddell
In what could be Liddell’s final game with the Buckeyes, the third-team AP All-American should be primed for a monster performance against a Rambler team that could have a tough time guarding him.
Valentine called the first-team All-Big Ten performer “a mismatch for every team in the country,” and he’s the top priority for Loyola to slow down if it’s going to derail Ohio State’s postseason plans.
Liddell had 25 points and eight rebounds against Penn State in the Big Ten Tournament, but that still wasn’t enough to pick up a win. A bigger storyline in this one might not be whether or not Liddell will have a big game, but who can step up to give him some help if the Buckeyes end up in a battle down the stretch.
Malaki Branham
The word is out on Malaki Branham. No longer considered just a talented freshman, the Big Ten’s rookie of the year might be the Buckeyes’ top option on offense depending on the game, and the first-year wing averaged 20.6 points per game in Ohio State’s final eight games before Selection Sunday. Four of those games were 20-point affairs, and the Buckeyes went 3-1 in those contests.
Branham will face one of the better defenders he’s seen all season on Saturday, as Williamson has the hardware to prove it, and the matchup between two future NBA talents will be crucial in determining the final outcome of Friday’s first-round matchup.
Kyle Young
The Buckeyes just aren’t the same when Young isn’t available. Beyond being the team’s third-leading scorer and rebounder, he gives Ohio State a level of toughness and physicality it doesn't have otherwise. Young’s intangibles have made him a fan favorite for Ohio State, and without him last season, the Buckeyes were upset in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. If the scarlet and gray is going to avoid a similar fate in 2022, Young’s hustle and grit could be crucial to provide the Buckeyes a lift on both ends of the floor.
“I think it's activity for one. He's really active. And it is versatility. It's activity and versatility, and then he helps our rebounding a lot, too,” Holtmann said. “I think those two things. He's also gotten smarter as he's gotten older in how to defend and play. You know, just the versatility that he provides. I feel like I've banged that drum for months now. I feel like that's really important. But his activity is pretty good, too, when he's playing like Kyle.”
Three Important Ramblers
| Player | Position | Height | Weight | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRADEN NORRIS | G | 6-0 | 180 | 10.3 PPG, 3.9 APG |
| LUCAS WILLIAMSON | G | 6-4 | 205 | 14 PPG, 5 RPG |
| TATE HALL | G | 6-6 | 220 | 5.7 PPG, 4.4 RPG |
| AHER UGUAK | F | 6-7 | 225 | 9.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG |
| CHRIS KNIGHT | F | 6-7 | 225 | 7.7 PPG, 4.1 RPG |
Lucas Williamson
A five-year veteran guard, Williamson will have the most NCAA Tournament experience of any player on the court Friday, boasting eight appearances in the Big Dance spanning back to 2017-18. Williamson was a key part of Loyola’s Final Four run as a freshman, led the Ramblers to a Sweet 16 berth a season ago and has similar plans in his final year of college basketball eligibility.
Williamson is Loyola’s top option on offense, averaging 14 points per game and shooting 45.1 percent from the field, and he’s also the Ramblers’ foremost defensive stopper on the wing. That will be particularly useful in a matchup with Branham, who may not be used to the physicality Williamson will bring on the outside.
Braden Norris
Another gritty guard in the Rambler backcourt is Hilliard, Ohio, native Braden Norris, who is Loyola’s second-leading scorer with averages of 10.3 points per game and 43.5 percent shooting from 3-point range. Norris also leads the Ramblers with an average of 3.9 assists per game, as the 6-foot guard is key in setting up and facilitating offense for Loyola. Norris has upped his scoring average to 12 points per game in the Ramblers’ last four games, including their three wins in Loyola’s conference tournament championship run, and the Buckeyes would be wise to run the 3-point marksman off the line given his deadeye aim from outside.
Aher Uguak
A third-team All-MVC performer this season, Uguak gives Loyola a long, wiry presence in its frontcourt with his 6-foot-7, 220-pound frame. The sixth-year senior and former New Mexico Lobo is averaging a career-high 9.1 points per game on 51 percent shooting, and he’s pulling down a career-best average of 4.5 boards as well. Uguak scored 16 points and tallied 10 rebounds to lead the Ramblers to victory in the MVC Tournament championship game, and he will likely be an important piece on defense as Loyola tries to match up with Liddell and the Buckeyes’ other bigs, depending on who plays.
How It Plays Out
Line: Ohio State -0.5, O/U 135.5
Sister Jean may be a sexy pick given how each team is trending, and considering how both teams played in last year’s NCAA Tournament. But if Young and Key can both go, which still seems like a big if, Ohio State should beat a Loyola team that lacks size and has only beaten one NCAA Tournament team all season (San Francisco). It’s been the case for much of the season, but I’ll echo the sentiment again here: If a third Buckeye can step up and give Ohio State a big lift alongside Liddell and Branham, it should result in a scarlet and gray win.
Prediction: Ohio State 76, Loyola 71
