Jt was closer than I thought it would be. But the Buckeyes managed to take down a suddenly resurgent Rutgers team by a 13-11 score. To be frank, the Buckeyes played pretty poorly. They Jost the chaos, were bolstered by another otherworldly performance from the goalkeeper, and still gave up 11 goals to a team that struggled all year to get to 10. But, in the positive column, the Buckeyes scored 2 more goals than any other team had been able to put past the stout Scarlet Knights. And, frankly, should have had even more if not for the inability of a few players’ to keep the ball in their stick under pressure. Now, things are much more downhill. A weird thing to say when the opponent is Johns Hopkins, the most successful program of all time in lacrosse. And yet, here we are. Get in, Buckeyes, we’re going trolling.
Johns Hopkins is absolutely reeling. Hiring Peter Milliman has not turned out the way that Jays fans would have hoped. Despite making the quarters each of the past two seasons, Hopkins has looked far from elite. This year, the Jays are the worst team in the conference. Easily. How do we know? They've gotten absolutely curbstomped by Rutgers and the Wolverines in back to back weeks. Sure, anyone can win on any given Saturday. But Johns Hopkins needs to go on a heater and beat all 3 of the top 10 teams they’re about to play in consecutive weeks to finish above .500 in league play. Even if Russell Melendez (#31) returns to play, Hopkins is going to scriously struggle. And if Melendez comes back this weck, he’s going to be off enough to where the Buckeyes can afford to line up Cullen Brown on him. That's going to be a disaster for Hopkins. If you couldn’t tell, I think Ohio State wins. I think it’s comfortable. And I think that Nick Myers is likely to have his best ever season in league play. Let's talk Jays.
Attack
Russell Melendez highlights the offensive side of the ball for Johns Hopkins, and the transfer from Marquette has missed 3 games this season. The last 2 have been the aforementioned 11-8 losses to Rutgers and the Wolverines in back to back weeks. The offense is not the same without Melendez. Hunter Chauvette (#91) leads the Jays in sconng with 20 goals and 7 assists. He’s been hampered with Melendez’s absence, and has been an average shooter, at just slightly over 29%, Chauvette is a volume guy, and the Buckeyes will likely assign Bobby Van Buren to wipe him out in the absence of another dodger on the aitack line. Hopkins is a shell of itself from years past, not having near the talent nor depth at attack that carried the program to glory in the 2000s and 2010s. The stars are all there, but the talent never developed.
Midfield
Johns Hopkins is a lot more robust in the midfield, which could spell trouble for the Buckeyes at certain times. Matt Collison (#16) is a MASSIVE midfielder from Canada who is going to be a problem. Collison has 17 goals this season, is a physical nightmare to play against (especially since the Buckeyes have very, very small defensive middies), and will look to bully his way to the net. Ohio State has gotten very good at LSM, so as long as they keep a pole on him, things should be okay. There. Elsewhere, Charlie [ler (#29) has become a facilitator of note in midfield, despite missing 4 games this season. [ler registered 2 assists against the Wolverines, and will try to make the offense go tomorrow. Brooks English (#25) is the biggest dodging threat Ohio State will likely face tomorrow, and will almost certainly cause the most problems. English has 15 assists this season, and will require constant attention from an Ohio State unit that can struggle off of slides. All in all, the Jays are pretty good at midfield. Certainly an advantage over Ohio State.
Defense
Johns Hopkins is not great defensively. They just aren’t. Teams average just .3 fewer shots per game than Hopkins registers. And score just .4 fewer goals per game. You’re not going to win many games with those kinds of numbers. Now, Johns Hopkins only allows teams to get 56% of their shots on goal. That’s an elite number. Unfortunately, their offense is just 2% better in the same category. The Jays will likely start 5" year Colby Weishaar (#20), Quintan Kilrain (#6), and Scott Smith (#18). As it was a problem last game, Kilrain is a threat to score in transition, and will need a slide if he gets going down field with no one close to him.
Goalie has been a problem for Hopkins the entire Milliman era, and this year is no exception. Oren Gelinas (#87), a former Buckeye, has recently taken over the starting gig and been decent. Despite a 1-2 record, Gelinas is saving shots at a .516 clip, which is pretty good. It’s not elite. And not up to the Hopkins standard. But it’s better than any other option the Jays have. Ohio State played a really decent game last week, placing shots better than I’ve seen most of the season. This should be a great advantage for Ohio State.
Faceoff
As bad as the Jays have been elsewhere, faceoffs have been genuinely excellent all season long. Logan Callahan (#5) is coming off a 72.7% performance against the Wolverines. For the season, he is at 62%, though as a team Johns Hopkins is at 58%. Regardless, barring a catastrophic injury in practice this week, Callahan will be lining up to challenge Jack Oldman more than Oldman has been challenged in a few weeks. Oldman’s been extremely solid for the Buckeyes, a genuine difference maker. He’s not quite in a Withers-tier yet, but Oldman is a net plus. Easily. If the Buckeyes can get this battle to 50-50, Hopkins is toast.
Overall
This isn’t the Johns Hopkins of last year, or years prior. With the injury bug and a downturn in impactful talent, the Jays are vulnerable. Back to back weeks, they’ve struggled to just 8 goals against teams that, to be frank, are not elite. The Jay started completely flat in their loss to the Wolverines, going down 6-2 at halftime, before closing the gap to just 8-7 at the end of the 3". Still, even though this game will be at Homewood, the Buckeyes have to feel pretty confident as they get ready for this matchup. Hopkins will be hard to handle in midfield, but the Buckeyes match up well against their attack unit. With a suspect defense, shaky goalkeeping, and Struggling offense, Johns Hopkins is in a spot that has to make the Buckeyes feel very good. _ With all of the spice the Scarlet and Gray have had in games against Hopkins and Maryland, this should be a chippy affair, too. Still, I’m feeling good about the Buckeyes’ chances, even with Melendez back. If Melendez is missing, the Buckeyes roll.
Final Prediction: Ohio State 12, Johns Hopkins 7.
Game is on ESPNU at 2 p.m. EDT.
Go Bucks!
