After defeating Loyola 54-41 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday, Ohio State will have to pull off an upset on Sunday if it’s going to reach the first Sweet 16 of Chris Holtmann’s tenure.
The Buckeyes’ second-round matchup (2:40 p.m., CBS) will be played against Villanova, the Big East Tournament champion and the No. 2 seed in the South Region, who defeated Delaware in its first-round game in Pittsburgh on Friday.
Villanova is one of the nation’s hottest teams, having won 11 of its last 12 games, and the Wildcats – who have a 27-7 overall record this season – have a history of success in the NCAA Tournament under longtime head coach Jay Wright. Led by Big East player of the year Collin Gillespie and five other players who have also averaged more than nine points per game this season, the Wildcats are an efficient offensive team that can attack opponents from every position on the floor.
Limited depth and size, however, could make them beatable if the Buckeyes play their best basketball.
Only three losses in last two months
After starting the season just 7-4, which dropped the Wildcats to 23rd in the AP Top 25, Villanova has been on a tear ever since. Dating back to Dec. 21, Villanova has won 20 of its last 23 games, including its last six in a row.
For the season as a whole, the Wildcats have won 10 games against teams in this year’s NCAA Tournament field – two against each of Creighton, Providence, Seton Hall and UConn, plus a November win over No. 3 seed Tennessee and Friday’s win over No. 15 seed Delaware – while all seven of their losses have come against teams who made the tournament as no lower than a 9 seed (one loss against each of No. 1 seed Baylor, No. 3 seed Purdue, No. 4 seed UCLA, No. 5 seed UConn and No. 9 seed Creighton, plus two losses against No. 9 seed Marquette).
By comparison, Ohio State has won nine games against tournament teams but has lost five games to non-tournament teams.
Villanova’s only losses since the start of 2022 were a 57-54 loss to Marquette on Jan. 19, an 83-73 loss to Marquette on Feb. 2 and a 71-69 loss to UConn on Feb. 22.
Six scoring threats
The Wildcats’ star is Gillespie, a fifth-year senior guard who earned Big East Player of the Year honors this season for the second year in a row. Going into the NCAA Tournament, Gillespie averaged 15.9 points, 3.8 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game this season while shooting 44.3 percent from the field, 42.2 percent from the 3-point line and 89.4 percent from the free throw line.
Gillespie has scored in double digits in 30 of Villanova’s 34 games this season, but the Wildcats can win even when Gillespie has a rare off game, as they have five other players who have also averaged more than nine points per game this season.
Junior guard Justin Moore, a second-team All-Big East selection, has also averaged 15 points per game this season along with 5.1 rebounds per game. Fifth-year senior forward Jermaine Samuels has averaged 10.4 points and 6.2 rebounds per game while fifth-year senior guard Caleb Daniels has averaged 10.1 points and 3.5 rebounds per game. Senior forward Brandon Slater and redshirt sophomore Eric Dixon have both averaged 9.1 points per game; both of them have also shot better than 50 percent from the field, while Dixon leads the team in rebounding (6.3 per game) and 3-point field goal percentage (48.1).
All of them except Slater scored in double digits in Villanova’s opening-round win over Delaware, led by Moore with 21 points.
Justin Moore is one of two Villanova players who has averaged more than 15 points per game this season. (Photo: Charles LeClaire – USA TODAY Sports)
With a diverse array of scoring threats, Villanova has the ninth-best adjusted offensive efficiency in the country, according to KenPom.
By comparison, Ohio State has only two players who have averaged more than nine points per game this season (E.J. Liddell and Malaki Branham), though the Buckeyes do have 10 players who have averaged more points per game than Villanova’s seventh-leading scorers, Jordan Longino and Chris Arcidiacano, who have averaged just 1.8 points per game.
They don’t have overwhelming size
Much like against Loyola, Ohio State won’t have to worry about being at a size disadvantage against Villanova. None of the regulars in Villanova’s rotation are taller than 6-foot-8, though three of their top six players – Dixon, Samuels and Slater – are at least 6-foot-7.
That means the size on the floor should be comparable between the Buckeyes and the Wildcats on Sunday, as Ohio State has two 6-foot-8 regulars in Kyle Young and Zed Key and a 6-foot-7 star in Liddell. If Ohio State wants more of a true size advantage in the post, it could utilize 6-foot-11 center Joey Brunk, though he wasn’t in the rotation against Loyola and could be viewed as a defensive liability against another guard-heavy offense like Villanova.
Villanova has been just slightly better on the glass than Ohio State this season, averaging 34.9 rebounds per game compared to 34.6 for the Buckeyes.
A wide variety of recent tournament results
While Ohio State will be chasing its first Sweet 16 berth of the Chris Holtmann era on Sunday, Villanova has won two national championships in the last six years. The Wildcats went all the way in the NCAA Tournament in both 2016 and 2018; altogether, they’ve made the Sweet 16 seven times, including last year, since Jay Wright became Villanova’s head coach in 2001.
That said, the Wildcats have had mixed results in the Round of 32 in recent years, falling in the second round of the tournament in 2019, 2017, 2015, 2014 and 2010 . The Wildcats were a No. 1 seed in 2017 and 2015 and a No. 2 seed in 2014 and 2010, so an upset loss in the first weekend as a top-two seed would be far from unprecedented for Wright’s squad.
Villanova is able to draw from much more tournament experience than Ohio State, as Gillespie and Samuels have both been a part of four tournament runs with the Wildcats including the 2018 national championship run while Moore and Daniels were also starters in last year’s tournament run.
Buckeyes have winning record vs. Wildcats
Ohio State’s veteran players have experience playing against and beating some of the same Villanova players it will face on Sunday, as the Buckeyes won their most recent meeting with the Wildcats on Nov. 13, 2019, when Liddell and Young each scored eight points in a 76-51 early-season win over Villanova in the Gavitt Games.
All-time, Ohio State has a 3-1 record against Villanova, with its only loss against the Wildcats coming in an 87-86 game on Dec. 30, 1974.
The Buckeyes won their only previous NCAA Tournament meeting with the Wildcats in 1939 – the first-ever NCAA Tournament – when Ohio State defeated Villanova 53-36 in the Final Four before going on to lose to Oregon in the national championship game. Ohio State also defeated Villanova 67-66 in the 2003 Maui Invitational.
