At the start of the week, Ohio State faced the prospect of hosting an undefeated Purdue team with an iron grip on the No. 1 spot in the AP poll.
| WHO | WHERE | WHEN | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 Purdue (13-1, 2-1 B1G) | Schottenstein Center | 7 p.m. | FS1 |
On Monday night, though, Rutgers proved the Boilermakers are beatable after all. The Scarlet Knights, who have already taken a one-point loss in Columbus this season, edged out Purdue on its own home floor, 65-64, to hand Matt Painter and company their first loss of the season after 13 straight wins to open the year.
That could either be a good or bad thing for the Buckeyes, who might catch Purdue at the start of a midseason slide but could also feel the wrath of a Boilermaker squad dead set on playing more poised after an upset loss.
Ohio State head coach Chris Holtmann is preparing for the latter premise.
“I think you're gonna face a team that's gonna come in with a lot of bite. They're a really proud program, Matt's instilled that, they have really competitive guys,” Holtmann said Wednesday. “And they've been hearing for two days some things, so there's no question that – listen, I think when you're in this league, you understand you're gonna lose in this league. No one's going undefeated in this league. And that's the reality of the depth of this league and why it's consistently the deepest league in college basketball.
"Our guys have obviously a lot to play for as well. Their competitive edge can't be any greater than ours, but we know we're gonna get Purdue's best shot.”
But Ohio State has looked stellar as of late, starting the new year with a blowout road win over a rock-solid Northwestern team, and the Buckeyes still have yet to drop a game at home. Despite having already matched up with three ranked opponents and blue-chip programs like Duke and North Carolina on its non-conference schedule, Ohio State hasn’t faced a challenge quite like top-ranked Purdue.
Painter lost four of his top-five scorers from last year’s roster, including Jaden Ivey, Trevion Williams, Sasha Stefanovic and Eric Hunter, but after tailoring his 2022-23 team around the talents of towering big man Zach Edey, the Boilermakers may be even better this season.
For the Buckeyes, a win would represent its best of the season, a 3-0 record in conference play and a major feather in the cap of a young group that might just be hitting its stride at the start of January.
What to Watch For
Who gets in foul trouble
Edey’s avoided foul trouble for most of the season, but Rutgers managed to tag multiple fouls on him early in Monday night’s contest. Edey cited that as a problem for Purdue in the loss, and given the result, Ohio State would be wise to attack him early and often on offense come Thursday. However, Edey has become an improved rim protector in a bigger role this season and figures to make things difficult for the Buckeyes inside.
On the other end of the floor, Edey and the Boilermakers are among the top 25 teams in the country in average free throw makes and attempts. The Buckeyes know that all too well, though, as five players finished with three or more fouls in last year’s Purdue matchup in which Ohio State sent Edey to the line 11 times. For all of those reasons, the foul disparity will be crucial to the end result of this contest.
A perennially close matchup
There hasn’t been a lopsided final score between the Buckeyes and Boilermakers in almost three years. Each of the past four contests has been decided by nine points or less, and the widest margin of defeat in that series came in a hotly contested overtime matchup in the Big Ten Tournament two seasons ago. Outside of that matchup, Ohio State took a seven-point loss to the Boilermakers at Mackey Arena in December 2020, fell by two points at home just one month later, and only lost last year’s lone meeting on a game-winning buzzer-beater by Ivey.
This season, Ohio State’s offense is the most efficient Purdue has seen thus far (No. 2 in the country, per KenPom), and recent history tells us the game will come down to the wire.
Another No. 1 upset for OSU?
Ohio State could leave a third nationally top-ranked team in its wake in the Holtmann era with a win over Purdue on Thursday. The Buckeyes knocked off No. 1 Duke, 71-65, with a second-half comeback at the Schott last season, and when No. 1 Michigan State came to town in January 2018, Keita Bates-Diop and company handed Tom Izzo and company a blowout loss in Columbus.
Ohio State has home-court advantage against another national No. 1 on Thursday, and although there aren’t many holdovers from either of the aforementioned Buckeye teams, Ohio State still has a golden opportunity to notch another statement win over a top-flight competitor on a big stage. The Buckeyes have yet to lose at home this season, though Purude will be the first ranked opponent they’ve faced at the Schott.
Three Important Buckeyes
Zed Key
Given the unique challenge Edey presents, Ohio State’s starting center may be the single most important player for the Buckeyes in this matchup. In his last time out against the Boilermakers on Jan. 30, 2022, Key played just 12 minutes and finished with twice as many fouls as he had points or rebounds. Meanwhile, Edey finished with 20 points on 7-for-9 shooting. Ohio State still had E.J. Liddell, Kyle Young and Joey Brunk to throw at him last season, though, while Key will be the primary line of defense in Thursday’s matchup.
“I think this is an opportunity for Zed to really grow in his ability to defend a dominant post player,” Holtmann said.
Felix Okpara
Edey’s sheer physical presence creates quick foul trouble for opponents, which means Key can’t be the only player Ohio State throws at him defensively. Holtmann said it will take a “team effort” to slow down the dominant Boilermaker big man, which means 6-foot-11 freshman Felix Okpara should get plenty of minutes as well. Okpara hasn’t played more than 19 minutes in a game for the Buckeyes this season, but he could get his largest workload of the season thus far on Thursday as Ohio State looks for ways to shut down Purdue’s top weapon.
Brice Sensabaugh
The three-time running Big Ten Freshman of the Week has been on a tear since making his first start for the Buckeyes on Dec. 8. In the last five games, Sensabasugh’s averaging 18.6 points per game, shooting a hair under 56% from the field and knocking down 46.2% of his 3-point attempts. Sensabaugh continues to assert himself as Ohio State’s top option on offense despite his first-year status, and after Malaki Branham dropped 20 points in last year’s Purdue game, perhaps another Ohio State freshman will have a chance to put up big numbers in this year’s matchup.
Three Important Boilermakers
Zach Edey
| Player | Position | Height | Weight | Season Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRADEN SMITH | G | 6-0 | 180 | 8.9 PPG, 3.6 APG |
| FLETCHER LOYER | G | 6-4 | 185 | 12.1 PPG, 2.5 APG |
| ETHAN MORTON | G | 6-6 | 215 | 4.0 PPG, 3.4 RPG |
| CALEB FURST | F | 6-10 | 215 | 7.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG |
| ZACH EDEY | C | 7-4 | 285 | 21.7 PPG, 13.4 RPG |
Guarding Edey was always a frightening proposition for opposing Big Ten teams. In his third year, though, the titanic 7-foot-4 center is taking full advantage of his colossal frame like never before. Edey is the Big Ten’s leading scorer and rebounder with averages of 21.7 points and 13.4 rebounds per game, which also rank ninth and second-best in the nation, respectively. Edey is also the conference’s second-leading shot blocker at 2.2 rejections a night.
Playing nearly 12 more minutes per game than he did as a sophomore, Edey’s hitting 63.2% of his field goal attempts and getting to the free throw line eight times per game. Edey already has two 30-point performances this season and two other games with at least 25 points, and even though his scoring numbers have dipped a bit over the past four games, he’ll be the focal point of Ohio State’s defensive efforts on Thursday.
“He's a human cheat code,” Holtmann said. “He's the most dominant player in college basketball, we know that.”
Fletcher Loyer
A four-star, top-100 prospect in the 2022 class, Loyer has emerged as Purdue’s second option on offense as just a true freshman. Starting all 14 games so far, the 6-foot-4 guard is averaging 12.1 points per game for the Boilermakers. Loyer’s shooting only 36.8% from the field, but that hasn’t slowed down his shot attempts, as he takes 10.3 field goals a night. More than half of those come from the 3-point line, where Loyer is Purdue’s highest-volume shooter. In a seven-game stretch from Nov. 25 to Dec. Dec. 17, the Indiana native averaged 15.6 points per game, although his offensive production has slowed in the last three outings.
Braden Smith
Another true freshman guard from Indiana, Smith immediately stepped into a starting role to begin his college basketball career. With an average of 8.9 points per game, Smith trails only Edey and Loyer in terms of scoring for the Boilermakers, and his 3.6 assists per game are the most on the team. Smith has been efficient from both the field and the 3-point line with averages of 43% and 41.7%, respectively, and he’s also the team’s second-leading rebounder (5.1 per game) despite standing only six feet tall.
How it Plays Out
Line: OSU -1.5, O/U: 141.5
Edey’s size may be too much for an Ohio State team that lacks true big men beyond Key and Okpara, but the Buckeyes have either held their own or got the better of several teams who boasted significant size advantages over them this season. Edey is a different beast, but Ohio State’s dynamic offense should keep them in the game down the stretch for another tight result between these Big Ten foes.
Prediction: Ohio State 72, Purdue 71
