The most quietly dangerous game on Ohio State’s regular-season schedule could come on Nov. 4, when the Buckeyes will travel to Kinnick Stadium to play a road game at Iowa for the first time since 2010.
On paper, the Hawkeyes don’t look like an intimidating opponent. They went just 8-4 last season with a quarterback in C.J. Beathard who was selected in the third round of the 2017 NFL draft. Ohio State will go into this year’s matchup with a clear talent advantage on both sides of the ball.
That said, the Hawkeyes could potentially slot into the dangerous sweet spot where they are inferior enough to be overlooked – especially as Ohio State will be coming off a much-anticipated game with Penn State one week earlier – but still good enough to beat the Buckeyes.
In Kirk Ferentz’s lengthy tenure as Iowa coach, the Hawkeyes have scored some big upsets over top-ranked teams, including last November, when Iowa handed a then-undefeated Michigan its first loss of the season in Iowa City.
Going into the season, ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Ohio State a 92.6 percent chance to beat Iowa, so it would certainly be an upset if the Hawkeyes won. Still, Urban Meyer’s first trip to Kinnick as a head coach ranks as Ohio State’s second-toughest road game this season, as ranked by former Eleven Warriors beat writer Eric Seger.
Our 2017 Look Ahead continues with a look at what challenges Iowa could present in Ohio State’s ninth game of the season and first game of November.
OFFENSE
The departure of Beathard, Iowa’s starting quarterback for the last two seasons, leaves the Hawkeyes with a major question mark at the most important position.
2017 Look Aheads
Nathan Stanley, the only other quarterback to throw a pass for the Hawkeyes last season, is the favorite to win the starting job. He still has to compete for the job in fall camp, however, with junior Tyler Wiegers also vying for the top spot on the depth chart.
Both Stanley (6-foot-5, 212 pounds) and Wiegers (6-foot-4, 225 pounds) look the part, possessing prototypical measurables for the quarterback position, but both three-star recruits are almost entirely unproven as college passers.
Whether Iowa can pose a serious threat to Ohio State could come down to whether either of those quarterbacks can get the offense humming by the third month of the season.
Iowa doesn’t have a reputation for being an explosive offensive team, and last year was no exception; the Hawkeyes ranked 12th in the Big Ten in total offense (325 yards per game) and 10th in scoring offense (24.9 points per game).
The Hawkeyes had one highly dynamic offensive playmaker, though, in running back Akrum Wadley.
Wadley led Iowa with 1,081 rushing yards last season, was also the Hawkeyes’ second-leading receiver with 36 receptions for 315 yards and scored a team-high 13 touchdowns. A skilled pass-catcher out of the backfield with lightning-quick feet and enough speed to break away from a pack, Wadley is a big-play threat any time the ball is in his hands. A third-team All-Big Ten selection last year, Wadley could be one of the conference’s biggest stars in his senior year.
The Hawkeyes offense should also get a boost from the return of wide receiver Matt VandeBerg, who led the Hawkeyes in receiving in 2015 but played in only four games last season before breaking his foot.
Matt VandeBerg should re-emerge as the top wide receiver on Iowa's offense this year. Caylor Arnold – USA TODAY Sports
Iowa will need some more weapons to emerge around Wadley and VandeBerg, especially as a new quarterback tries to find rhythm within the offense. The Hawkeyes’ second leading-rusher from last season, LeShun Daniels, is gone, as are the Hawkeyes’ leading wide receiver (Riley McCarron) and tight end (George Kittle) from last year. It doesn’t help matters that Jerminic Smith, the Hawkeyes’ third-leading rusher and receiver from last year, also left the program due to academic issues.
One area where Iowa should be strong, as it almost always has been during Ferentz’s tenure, is on the offensive line. All five projected starters for the Hawkeyes started at least seven games last season. Right guard Sean Welsh and center James Daniels were third-team All-Big Ten selections last year, while left tackle Boone Myers and right tackle Ike Boettger are also potential All-Big Ten candidates.
DEFENSE
If the Hawkeyes are going to upset Ohio State, they are going to need a dominant defensive performance, like they had last year against Michigan, when they held the Wolverines to only 201 yards in their 14-13 win.
| Head Coach | Kirk Ferentz (19th season, 135-92 at Iowa) |
| 2016 Record | 8-5 (6-3 in Big Ten) |
| 2016 Postseason | Lost to Florida, 30-3, in Outback Bowl |
| Biggest Losses | QB C.J. Beathard, TE George Kittle, DT Jaleel Johnson, CB Desmond King |
| Biggest Returnees | RB Akrum Wadley, WR Matt VandeBerg, RG Sean Welsh, LB Josey Jewell |
| Summary | Running game, defense should define Ferentz's Hawkeyes once again. |
| Matchup | Nov. 4 in Iowa City, Iowa, kickoff time TBA |
For the 2016 season as a whole, Iowa ranked fifth in the Big Ten (23rd nationally) in total defense (351.2 yards allowed per game) and fourth in the Big Ten (13th nationally) in scoring defense (18.8 points allowed per game).
The star of the Hawkeyes defense is Josey Jewell, who was a finalist for the 2016 Butkus Award as one of college football’s five best linebackers (and the only one of those linebackers who is still playing college football this year).
Jewell has been a consistent playmaker from the middle linebacker position for the Hawkeyes over the past two seasons, recording 250 total tackles and 19 passes defended (including four interceptions) over that span. A team captain since his sophomore year, Jewell is highly regarded by the Hawkeyes for his leadership. The former two-star recruit has excellent instincts and is quick to diagnose plays, which has enabled him to become of the most productive defenders in college football.
Josey Jewell is the leader and star of Iowa's defense.
The Hawkeyes lost their other two stars from last year’s defense, defensive tackle Jaleel Johnson and cornerback Desmond King, who were both Day 3 picks in this past spring’s NFL draft. The Hawkeyes will also be without their top safety from last season, Brandon Snyder, who is unlikely to play this year after tearing an ACL this spring. That said, the Hawkeyes still have eight returning defenders who started at least three games last season.
Up front, the Hawkeyes have a strong three-man rotation at the defensive end position with Parker Hesse, Matt Nelson and Anthony Nelson. That trio combined for 22.5 tackles for loss last season. The Hawkeyes also have a returning starter at defensive tackle in senior Nathan Bazata.
The Hawkeyes return all three of their starting linebackers from last season. While Jewell is the star of the unit, fellow seniors Bo Bower and Ben Niemann are both solid players in their own rights. Both players, like Jewell, are third-year starters for the Hawkeyes; Bower had 91 total tackles last season, while Niemann had 69.
Iowa’s defense is least experienced in the secondary, but the Hawkeyes appear to have another star cornerback in the making in sophomore Manny Rugamba. Having performed well enough to earn his way into the starting lineup as a freshman, Rugamba had the best opposing passer rating last season among all returning Big Ten cornerbacks, according to Pro Football Focus’ Aaron Resnick.
The Hawkeyes have another third-year starter at the strong safety position in senior Miles Taylor, but Taylor was replaced in the lineup late last season after some inconsistent play. Iowa is likely to miss King and Snyder on the back end, but the first two months of the season could be enough time for solid starters to emerge before the Hawkeyes play Ohio State.
As Ferentz’s Iowa teams traditionally have been, this year’s Hawkeyes should have an effective running game behind a strong offensive line and a physical, competitive defense.
That should be enough to make Iowa a tough place for anyone to play, but still shouldn't be enough to take down a team of Ohio State's caliber.
With inexperience at quarterback, wide receiver and tight end, Iowa shouldn’t pose much of a threat to Ohio State’s defense as long as the Buckeyes can stop Wadley from breaking big plays. Ohio State’s speed on offense should give them an advantage over Iowa’s defense, even though the Buckeyes enter the season with passing game concerns of their own.
Ohio State will be looking for its first win in Iowa City that still counts since 2006, as the Buckeyes’ 2010 win in Kinnick Stadium was vacated. The odds will be in the Buckeyes’ favor, but the Hawkeyes are just good enough for Ohio State fans to feel a bit uneasy going into this game.
