Ohio State wasn’t far off from beating Oregon the first time the Buckeyes played the Ducks this season, but there are several areas where the Buckeyes need to be better if they’re going to have a better chance to beat the Ducks the second time around.
#1 Oregon
Ducks
The Buckeyes came up just one point short in their regular-season meeting with Oregon, falling 32-31 to the Ducks in Eugene on Oct. 12. Had Jeremiah Smith not been penalized for offensive pass interference in the game’s final 30 seconds or Will Howard slid to the ground a second earlier on the final play of the game, the Buckeyes would have been in position to potentially kick a game-winning field goal.
But it was far more than just two plays that led to Ohio State’s demise that night. The Buckeyes’ typically elite defense had its worst performance of the season to date by far in their first game against Oregon, allowing 496 yards – over 200 more than they’ve allowed in any other game this season. Ohio State also lost the turnover battle 2-0 while its rushing offense fell stagnant in the second half.
As the Buckeyes look to turn the tables on the Ducks and hand Oregon its first loss of the season in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, there’s no guarantee that they’ll do as well in the areas that they succeeded in the first time around – namely their passing offense, which is what nearly led Ohio State to victory in Eugene as Howard completed 28 of 35 passes for 326 yards and two touchdowns. But it could be whether or not the Buckeyes perform better in the following four areas that determines if Ohio State in its rematch with Oregon and advances to the College Football Playoff semifinals.
Limit big plays
The most obvious reason why Ohio State lost its first meeting with Oregon was the big plays it allowed on defense. Oregon had eight plays of 25-plus yards in that game. Six of those eight plays were part of scoring drives for the Ducks, with one occurring on each of Oregon’s four touchdown drives and two field goal drives.
Ohio State’s pass defense particularly struggled against the Ducks, with six of Oregon’s big plays coming through the air including a 69-yard pass to Evan Stewart and a 48-yard touchdown pass to Tez Johnson, both of which came against Denzel Burke, who had the worst game of his career in Eugene.
The good news entering the rematch is that that game has been an anomaly for the Buckeyes. While Ohio State allowed 341 passing yards to Oregon, it hasn’t allowed anyone else to throw for more than 201 yards (Northwestern) and leads the nation with only 141.2 passing yards allowed per game. For the season as a whole, Ohio State’s defense has been one of the best in the country at limiting big plays; the Buckeyes are tied for the FBS lead for fewest 30-plus-yard plays allowed (nine) and lead the FBS with only two 40-plus-yard allowed (two).
Burke’s struggles against the Ducks have been an outlier, too, as he hasn’t allowed more than 36 receiving yards against his coverage in any other game, per Pro Football Focus.
Oregon’s offense is more explosive than any other offense Ohio State has faced this season, so the Rose Bowl will be the true test of whether the Buckeyes’ defense has improved from their struggles against the Ducks. But the Buckeyes are confident they’ll be ready the second time around.
“We've made adjustments coming off of that game and we've worked hard to make sure that we're putting our guys in the best position to be successful. We'll do that again against these guys this week and go compete our tails off, but our defense is playing with great confidence right now,” Ryan Day said Monday. “You can see every week it's gotten stronger and stronger. So we've got to go do it. We've got to go put it on the field. I know we've got a great challenge ahead, but our guys are ready for it.”
Sack the quarterback
One way Ohio State can make it tougher for Oregon to make big plays is to put more pressure on Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel. And a big way for the Buckeyes to get off the field more consistently without allowing points would be to get Gabriel on the ground, as Ohio State failed to record a single sack in its regular-season matchup with the Ducks.
A lack of sacks in big games has been a repeated criticism for Ohio State in recent years, and its goose egg in that category against the Ducks in October prompted Nick Saban to call OSU out for its lack of pass-rush creativity. The Buckeyes responded by making adjustments to their pass-rush scheme during the bye week that followed the first Oregon game, and the Buckeyes have seen results from those adjustments as they’ve recorded 22 sacks in their last seven games, including four in their first-round College Football Playoff win over Tennessee.
“We just tightened stuff up,” Ohio State defensive end Jack Sawyer said of the pass-rush’s improvement. “We didn't go in there and revamp everything. But we just tightened some stuff up, made a little adjustments, and we're scheming different things for each team we're playing. So it's just little things like that you can take in every week.”
Once again, the Rose Bowl will serve as the ultimate test for those improvements, as Oregon’s offensive tackle tandem of Josh Conerly Jr. and Ajani Cornelius is one of the best in the country, leading the way for an offensive line that’s allowed only 13 sacks in 13 games. They’re aided by the elusiveness of Gabriel, who did a great job of getting away from the Buckeyes’ pass-rushers to keep plays alive when they were able to pressure him in the first matchup.
Along with sacking Gabriel, Ohio State must also do a good job of keeping Gabriel contained in the pocket, as he burned the Buckeyes with a 27-yard touchdown run in the first meeting. But Ohio State needs to stay aggressive with its pass-rush even if that means giving up a few quarterback run plays – much like it did against Nico Iamaleava and Tennessee last weekend – and with Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau coming off the best combined game of their careers, Ohio State’s pass-rush will look to ride its current momentum and make a bigger impact the second time around.
Avoid costly turnovers
Games between tightly matched teams are often decided by who wins the turnover battle, and that was another big reason why Oregon defeated Ohio State in October.
The Buckeyes lost the turnover battle 2-0 in that game. Quinshon Judkins had the ball stripped out of his hands by Oregon defensive tackle Derrick Harmon at Ohio State’s 28-yard line midway through the first quarter, giving the Ducks a short field that set up Oregon’s first touchdown of the game. The Buckeyes also gave the Ducks a free possession in the second quarter when Oregon opted to onside kick after a personal foul by Jordan Hancock and the ball bounced off of Caleb Downs and was recovered by the Ducks; that set up a field goal that gave Oregon its first lead of the game.
Against an opponent as good as Oregon, the Buckeyes can’t afford to lose the turnover battle by multiple turnovers and give the Ducks prime field position multiple times. Based on what happened in the first meeting, ball security should be a priority for Ohio State on both offense and special teams.
The Buckeyes could really have a chance to swing the game in their favor this time around if they can force a couple of turnovers without committing any of their own. That will be easier said than done, though, as Oregon has been one of the least turnover-prone teams in college football, losing only 11 turnovers in 13 games with just six in its last eight games.
Run the ball better without Josh Simmons
Overall, Ohio State’s rushing numbers in its first meeting with Oregon weren’t bad, as the Buckeyes ran for 141 yards and two touchdowns with an average of 4.3 yards per carry. But most of the Buckeyes’ success running the ball came before left tackle Josh Simmons suffered a season-ending injury in the second quarter.
Before Simmons went down, Ohio State ran for 103 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries (7.4 ypc) with most of those yards coming on back-to-back runs by TreVeyon Henderson for 17 and 53 yards. After Zen Michalski replaced Simmons at left tackle, the Buckeyes ran for just 38 yards on 19 carries (2 ypc) for the remainder of the game. The running game was particularly putrid in the second half as the Buckeyes ran for just 19 yards on 12 carries – 12 of which came on Howard’s game-ending run – and failed to convert a single first down on the ground in the final two quarters.
Some of those struggles can be attributed to the fact that Michalski was unexpectedly thrust into action on a big stage with minimal game experience, and Michalski is not a part of the lineup that will take the field in Pasadena even though Simmons remains out. But the Buckeyes did have center Seth McLaughlin for the entirety of their first game against Oregon, and their run blocking hasn’t been the same since he went down with his season-ending injury.
That said, there’s two good reasons for optimism that the Buckeyes can have more success running the ball without Simmons this time around even though they’ll also be without McLaughlin. For one, the Buckeyes made strides running the ball against Tennessee, running for 156 yards and four touchdowns on 4.7 yards per carry after averaging only 3.5 ypc in their first two games without McLaughlin. Secondly, Oregon’s rushing defense has looked vulnerable against top competition, particularly in its last game against Penn State, in which the Nittany Lions ran for 292 yards and two touchdowns on more than eight yards per carry.
Given the success the Buckeyes had in the passing game the first time they played Oregon, Ohio State should look to be aggressive attacking through the air once again in the Rose Bowl, as that will likely be their most effective form of offense. But the Buckeyes need to be able to at least have some success moving the chains with their running game unlike the second half of their trip to Eugene.
