The Granddaddy of Them All could give birth to this year's national champion.
#1 Oregon
Ducks
Eighth-seeded Ohio State, now among the favorites to win the College Football Playoff after a 42-17 dismemberment of ninth-seeded Tennessee in the first round, clashes with top-seeded Oregon, which beat the Buckeyes in a 32-31 instant classic in Eugene earlier this season. The winner of their rematch in the Rose Bowl for the CFP quarterfinals will reserve a date in Arlington, Texas, to face the winner of fifth-seeded Texas and fourth-seeded Arizona State in the Cotton Bowl with a date in the National Championship Game on the line.
Oregon is the last unbeaten team standing in college football, but that doesn't mean the Ducks are without vulnerabilities. Sixth-seeded Penn State, also in the CFP quarterfinals, rushed the ball for 292 yards against them in the Big Ten Championship Game, and Oregon's defense as a whole is just 55th nationally in yards allowed per carry (four).
That might not be the first area where the Bucks seek to shoot down the Ducks, however, as it's the passing game that reignited Ohio State's offense against the Volunteers, though there were run-game successes too. On the other side of the ball, an otherwise dominant Buckeye defense gets a chance to avenge the biggest blemish on its résumé this season.
All those stakes will play out before one of the sport's most picturesque backdrops in Pasadena, California.
"We're excited about this opportunity to play in the Rose Bowl," Ryan Day said on Dec. 23. "The tradition of the Rose Bowl in the Big Ten obviously is well-documented and we understand that. This will actually be my third time being at the Rose Bowl and every time we go it's a great experience.
"And you'll certainly have a great opponent in Oregon, a lot of respect for them. Looking forward to the rematch. ... I think when you think about some of the greatest venues there are in college football, certainly Pasadena and the Rose Bowl is right at the top of the list."
The Headlines
Attack Early With the Pass
The Ohio State offense's struggles against Michigan get much more attention for obvious reasons after a 13-10 loss in what is annually the regular season's most important game, but the cracks were there the week before against Indiana following center Seth McLaughlin's season-ending injury.
Stripping away TreVeyon Henderson's 39-yard run with the game well in-hand in the waning minutes, Ohio State rushed for just 76 yards on 28 carries against the Hoosiers, a meager 2.7 yards per carry. Day even said after the victory over the Volunteers that the offense had been struggling even in that Indiana game, a 38-15 win aided in the scoring column by the team's first punt return touchdown in a decade.
The Buckeyes saw a massive resurgence against Tennessee, both from their offense as a whole and their running game. Will Howard tossed the pigskin for more than 300 yards for the second time this season – the other being the first time Ohio State played Oregon – and OSU picked up 4.7 yards per carry. Its offensive line saw a rebound thanks in part to a rotation of Tegra Tshabola, Austin Siereveld and Luke Montgomery at offensive guard and stuck almost exclusively to gap schemes on the ground.
“I certainly thought we got good double teams on the inside guys, and I thought our pullers did a nice job on the defensive ends and the second pullers getting to the next level,” Day said. “I thought our running backs ran through contact and ran with velocity.”
Perhaps the bigger part of the offense's rebound was its aggressive game plan, however. Ohio State came out and dialed up five pass plays out of six total play calls on its opening drive, including a 37-yard bomb from Howard to Jeremiah Smith for the contest's first salvo.
JEREMIAH SMITH OPENS THE SCORING IN COLUMBUS WITH AN UNREAL GRAB
— ESPN (@espn) December 22, 2024
THE FRESHMAN SENSATION CONTINUES TO BALL OUT THIS SEASON pic.twitter.com/uoi6Jp1pxw
The Buckeyes would be advised to rely on the pass to open up their ground game once again against the Ducks. While Oregon's pass defense is much better than its run defense statistically, ranked ninth nationally in the former and 33rd in the latter, there may be no group of defensive backs in the country that can consistently cover Ohio State's world-beating wide receiver trio of Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate.
As was seen in the Tennessee game, if a defense is spaced out through the air, it becomes easier to run the football. That's how the Buckeyes could establish balance on offense, as Day and Chip Kelly consistently preach – but either way, the plan should be to come out aggressive and sling the pigskin.
Vengeance in the Valley
| Ohio State | Pos | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| OFFENSE | ||
| WILL HOWARD | QB | DILLON GABRIEL |
| TREVEYON HENDERSON | RB | JORDAN JAMES |
| JEREMIAH SMITH | WR | TRAESHON HOLDEN |
| CARNELL TATE | WR | EVAN STEWART |
| EMEKA EGBUKA | WR | TEZ JOHNSON |
| GEE SCOTT JR. | TE | TERRANCE FERGUSON |
| DONOVAN JACKSON | LT | JOSH CONERLY JR. |
| AUSTIN SIEREVELD | LG | NISHAD STROTHER |
| CARSON HINZMAN | C | IAPANI LALOULU |
| TEGRA TSHABOLA | RG | DAVE IULI |
| JOSH FRYAR | RT | AJANI CORNELIUS |
| DEFENSE | ||
| JT TUIMOLOAU | DE | JORDAN BURCH |
| TYLEIK WILLIAMS | DT | DERRICK HARMON |
| TY HAMILTON | DT | JAMAREE CALDWELL |
| JACK SAWYER | DE/OLB | TEITUM TUIOTI |
| SONNY STYLES | WLB | JEFFREY BASSA |
| CODY SIMON | MLB | BRYCE BOETTCHER |
| JORDAN HANCOCK | NB | BRANDON JOHNSON |
| DENZEL BURKE | CB | JABBAR MUHAMMAD |
| DAVISON IGBINOSUN | CB | NIKKO REED |
| CALEB DOWNS | FS | KOBE SAVAGE |
| LATHAN RANSOM | SS | TYSHEEM JOHNSON |
For 12 of its 13 games this season, Ohio State's defense has dominated.
Only one team has scored more than 17 points against the Buckeyes. Only one team has thrown for more than 201 yards against them. Only one team has averaged more than 5.1 yards per play against them.
In all three instances, that team is Oregon, which scored 31 points off of 341 passing yards and 7.6 yards per play vs. Ohio State on Oct. 12. The Buckeyes are the nation's No. 1 scoring and total defense this season, but on that night in Autzen Stadium, they were forced to play the fool.
Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel completed 23 of 34 passes for 341 yards and two touchdowns, adding a rushing score. Cornerback Denzel Burke had the worst performance of his career, allowing seven catches for 162 yards and two touchdowns on seven targets, per Pro Football Focus.
In 18 targets across seven games since then, Burke has surrendered just 13 catches for 120 yards. Tennessee targeted him just once and the pass was incomplete. His mentality going into Wednesday isn't one of going for some getback, though, contrary to the title of this section.
“I've been trying to stay away from that word vengeance,” Burke said on Monday. “Really just go out there and be me, man. Have fun and be me.”
Ohio State also failed to record a sack of Gabriel in the teams' first meeting with just nine total pressures. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles and staff re-engineered his defense in response, mixing more coverages and creative ways to get after the quarterback with blitzes and simulated pressures. It's worked since the Oregon game. But the question now is whether it will work against the Ducks this time.
Schematics and Tactics
Oregon head coach Dan Lanning speaks at the Ducks' Rose Bowl media day. (Credit: Kirby Lee – Imagn Images)
The battle of coaching staffs is always an underlying storyline entering games, but especially so in the upcoming rematch between Ohio State and Oregon.
Head coaches Day and Dan Lanning hold the highest winning percentages among active head coaches across the FBS, Lanning at .875 and Day at .870 for their respective careers. Day came up as an elite offensive mind that took Ohio State's offense in a new direction with great success in 2018, Lanning was the defensive coordinator for one of the best defenses in the sport's history in the 2021 national champion Georgia Bulldogs.
Offensive coordinators Chip Kelly and Will Stein will match wits with defensive coordinators Jim Knowles and Tosh Lupoi. The game is an odd crossroads for Kelly, who played in the Rose Bowl on roughly a biweekly basis from 2018 through 2023 as head coach of UCLA, which uses the Pasadena-based national landmark as its home field.
Kelly was also Oregon's offensive coordinator from 2007 to 2008 and its head coach from 2009 through 2012, losing to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl the first of those years in 2009. It's a wild epicenter of his college coaching career, although he said on Saturday that he hasn't really thought about it.
Coaching tactics played a pivotal role in Autzen Stadium on Oct. 12. An Oregon go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter came on a 27-yard zone read keeper by Gabriel, which caught the Buckeyes in man coverage as Sonny Styles ran with tight end Terrance Ferguson to the flat.
Lanning may have also intentionally put 12 men on the field to help waste time in the final 10 seconds of play before Howard slid down a second too late in the 32-31 loss, and in any case the sequence prompted a rare in-season rule change from the NCAA.
Spotlights will be on both coaching staffs as they try to put their players in optimal positions for success.
Watch Out For These Guys
Oregon DE Jordan Burch
The Ducks' star defensive end missed the previous matchup between Ohio State and Oregon with a hamstring injury, and Burch's presence alongside fellow star edge rusher Matayo Uiagalelei might be the toughest test yet this season in pass protection for Buckeye offensive tackles Donovan Jackson and Josh Fryar. In just nine games, Burch has 11 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks with five pass breakups.
"He's a super powerful guy, really fast off the ball," Fryar said. "He's 6-6, 295, and he runs super fast. He's going to be a great matchup to go against, and I think it's going to be a battle."
Oregon WR Tez Johnson
Oregon wide receiver Tez Johnson is the most dangerous option for quarterback Dillon Gabriel. (Credit: Grace Hollars/IndyStar/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
Oregon has a war chest of options in the passing game that might only be rivaled by Ohio State's, but Johnson is the most threatening among them. He has 78 receptions for 866 yards and 10 touchdowns this season, all team-highs.
Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson
The Buckeyes may or may not use a similar gap-scheme-centric approach to their running game as they utilized vs. the Volunteers, but Henderson thrived in that attack during the CFP's first round. He collected 80 yards on just 10 carries with touchdown runs of 29 and 24 yards, adding four receptions for 54 yards. He had 10 carries for 87 yards the last time Ohio State played Oregon.
Oregon's defense allowed both of Penn State's running backs, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, to surpass 100 yards in the Ducks' last game, the Big Ten Championship Game. If Ohio State's offensive line can pave the way, as referenced above, there might be room for Henderson to maneuver for more big plays in the running game.
Game Week Talk
“Oh yeah. I'm ready to play. No matter who we played, I was gonna be ready.”– Oregon defensive end Jordan Burch on if he's hungry for his shot at Ohio State
It remains to be seen what new impact Burch's presence will have on Ohio State's offense, but he's eager for his opportunity against the Buckeyes. Oregon joined OSU in recording no sacks on Oct. 12, with 11 total pressures per PFF.
“Every game has an identity unto itself. Obviously, watching this most recent game, Ohio State played really well. They have a lot of strengths. They're really good on both sides of the ball.”– Dan Lanning on what he's seen on tape from Ohio State since it first faced Oregon
Both Ohio State and Oregon players and coaches across the board have expressed a sentiment that this game will be different in its look and feel than the first one between the two 2024 powers. Lanning's only spoken highly of the Buckeyes' capabilities since his team's win two and a half months ago.
“It's more of an edge, I feel like, and carrying that pissed-off mentality. Obviously not letting it affect you in a negative way, but making it remind you, ‘Hey, I'm going to go the extra inch here.’”– Will Howard on balancing emotions while aiming to get revenge on Oregon
Revenge, if it hasn't already been made clear, is a massive narrative entering this game for Ohio State. Such emotions are never something that a team can let control it, but using them as fuel to take extra steps in preparation is what Howard and his teammates have tried to do.
Get Smart
- Ohio State has a 9-2 all-time record vs. Oregon. The Buckeyes won the first nine games in the series, but Oregon has won the last two, defeating Ohio State 35-28 at Ohio Stadium in 2021 and 32-31 at Autzen Stadium earlier this year.
- Ohio State has a 9-7 all-time record in the Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes have won their last four Rose Bowl appearances, most recently defeating Utah in the 2022 Rose Bowl.
- Ohio State is 4-4 all-time in College Football Playoff games.
- Ohio State is 1-2 when facing the No. 1 seed in the CFP, defeating Alabama in the first-ever CFP in the 2014 season but losing to Alabama in the national championship game for the 2020 season and losing to Georgia in 2022.
- This will be the third time in the last 50 years that Ohio State has faced a team twice in the same season. Ohio State’s last rematch came in 2019, when the Buckeyes beat Wisconsin in both the regular season and the Big Ten Championship Game. Ohio State lost to UCLA in the Rose Bowl after defeating the Bruins during the 1975 regular season.
- The Rose Bowl will be Ohio State’s fourth game this season against a top-five team. The Buckeyes are 2-1 against top-five teams so far this year with the only loss coming to Oregon in the regular season.
- Ohio State running backs coach Carlos Locklyn was the running backs coach at Oregon from 2022 until he joined Ohio State’s staff in April. OSU offensive coordinator Chip Kelly was Oregon’s head coach from 2009-12.
- Oregon tight ends coach Drew Mehringer was a graduate assistant at Ohio State in 2012 and 2013.
- Oregon’s roster includes two players from Ohio: Backup linebacker Jestin Jacobs (Englewood) and reserve offensive lineman Auston Mims (Akron). Ohio State has no players from Oregon.
- ESPN’s College GameDay will be broadcast from the Rose Bowl on Wednesday morning (10 a.m.-1 p.m.), marking the fifth time GameDay will be in attendance for an Ohio State game this season, the most of any school.
How It Plays Out
Line: Ohio State -2.5, O/U 55.5
More Ohio State vs. Oregon Coverage
The strides Ohio State's offense took against Tennessee were critical, as otherwise it'd feel like much more of an uphill climb for the Buckeyes to best Oregon. If their defense plays to its golden standard from the second half of the season and the offense uses an aggressive game plan to establish balance similar to the win over the Volunteers, there’s reason to like OSU's chances here, even against the sport's current No. 1 team.
Twelve of Eleven Warriors' 14 staffers selected the Buckeyes to triumph over the Ducks and reached the semifinals of the CFP. The lone holdouts were the Eleven Dubcast duo of George Eisner and Johnny Ginter, the latter of whom was also the only pick against Ohio State vs. Tennessee. Twelve of 14 are also projecting a one-score game in a rematch between two of the best teams in college football.
| Eleven Warriors Staff Prediction | ||||
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31 | 27 |
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