The hour is nigh.
#3 Oregon
Ducks
It's not judgment day yet for Ohio State's season, but it is the most telling judgment thus far of what sort of team the Buckeyes have in 2024.
No. 2 Ohio State travels to Oregon on Friday for a showdown with the No. 3 Ducks at Autzen Stadium on Saturday, the game it feels the first six weeks of this season – bye and all – have been building toward. The Ducks and Bucks are both favorites to make the College Football Playoff, likely win or lose, but that does nothing to detract from the aura and intensity of this top-three tilt.
If the Buckeyes can win at the line of scrimmage and contain Oregon's offensive arsenal, it should propel itself to the top of the national title conversation with a win in Eugene. But they must be prepared for a much tougher challenge than any opponent they’ve faced so far.
The Headlines
Tussle in the Trenches
On paper, each of Ohio State's lines has an exploit that could give the team a leg up on Dan Lanning's bunch.
The Ducks' defensive front isn't bad against the run; as a team, they rank 24th in rushing yards allowed per game (101.4) and 48th in yards allowed per carry (3.7). The reason they aren't better in those metrics, however, is because of a 221-yard rushing performance against them by Boise State in Week 2, a game Oregon won by just three points, 37-34.
Superstar Bronco running back Ashton Jeanty, a frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy, ran for 192 yards at a clip of 7.7 yards per carry in that contest. It's true that Jeanty is probably the best running back in college football, but it's also true that Ohio State's Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson are among the nation's best as well. And the Buckeyes' offensive line should be a step up from Boise State's. OSU is No. 5 in the country with 6.2 yards per carry this year.
“They got some dudes over there. Are they going to make plays? Absolutely,” quarterback Will Howard said. “Are they going to try and present some tough looks for us (on the defensive line)? Yeah, absolutely. But I'm super confident in my O-line. I think we got the best O-line in the country, and they're playing at a really, really high level right now, and I'm excited for them. I think they're going to take on that challenge, and I know that.”
Oregon's offensive line struggled early in the season, and it centers around the interior of the unit. Projected starting right guard Matthew Bedford suffered a knee injury and has been sidelined, and all three men from left guard to right guard for the Ducks have a Pro Football Focus grade – however much stock one puts into such things – of 68.6 or lower so far this year.
East Carolina transfer Nishad Strother is starting at left guard in his first season at the Power Four level, center Iapani Laloulu is still inexperienced as a true sophomore and right guard Marcus Harper II is the lowest-graded offensive lineman on the front (52.9) despite starting at left guard last season. Oregon averaged three yards per carry or less in each of its first two games and still ranks just 68th in college football at 4.6 yards per attempt this season.
Ohio State's defensive tackle tandem of Ty Hamilton and Tyleik Williams has been dynamite, even though Williams missed two games against Marshall and Michigan State. Hamilton had five tackles and a strip-sack in the Buckeyes' last game against Iowa and the duo have a combined 29 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss and three sacks in 2024.
Barometer for Back Seven
| Ohio State | Pos | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| OFFENSE | ||
| WILL HOWARD | QB | DILLON GABRIEL |
| TREVEYON HENDERSON | RB | JORDAN JAMES |
| JEREMIAH SMITH | WR | TRAESHON HOLDEN |
| CARNELL TATE | WR | EVAN STEWART |
| EMEKA EGBUKA | WR | TEZ JOHNSON |
| GEE SCOTT JR. | TE | TERRANCE FERGUSON |
| JOSH SIMMONS | LT | JOSH CONERLY JR. |
| DONOVAN JACKSON | LG | NISHAD STROTHER |
| SETH MCLAUGHLIN | C | IAPANI LALOULU |
| TEGRA TSHABOLA | RG | MARCUS HARPER II |
| JOSH FRYAR | RT | AJANI CORNELIUS |
| DEFENSE | ||
| JT TUIMOLOAU | DE | JORDAN BURCH |
| TYLEIK WILLIAMS | DT | DERRICK HARMON |
| TY HAMILTON | DT | JAMAREE CALDWELL |
| JACK SAWYER | DE | MATAYO UIAGALELEI |
| SONNY STYLES | WLB | JEFFREY BASSA |
| CODY SIMON | MLB | BRYCE BOETTCHER |
| JORDAN HANCOCK | NB | BRANDON JOHNSON |
| DENZEL BURKE | CB | JABBAR MUHAMMAD |
| DAVISON IGBINOSUN | CB | NIKKO REED |
| CALEB DOWNS | FS | KOBE SAVAGE |
| LATHAN RANSOM | SS | TYSHEEM JOHNSON |
This matchup is a measuring stick for Ohio State's back seven defensively because Oregon's offense is capable of exposing any weakness that appears with its variety of weapons.
Wide receiver Tez Johnson, the top option for quarterback Dillon Gabriel, is among the nation's best with 43 receptions for 395 yards and five touchdowns in 2024. The combo of Traeshon Holden and Evan Stewart can't be ignored alongside him out wide with a combined 456 yards and five touchdowns themselves this year.
Tight end Terrance Ferguson combines with Johnson's work from the slot to form a fearsome threat to the middle of any defensive coverage scheme. Ferguson has 16 receptions for 259 yards.
“He's got good size,” linebacker Cody Simon said of Ferguson. “He's dynamic. But we approach everybody the same way, and we want to play our game and do what we do against anybody we play.”
Michigan State, Marshall and even Iowa to some extent found success with quick passes over the middle against the Buckeyes, the main way each of those teams moved the ball even if they combined for all of 28 points against Jim Knowles' bunch.
Oregon's offensive strategy is predicated on quick passes to get their receivers space to run, be that on traditional short routes, screens or run-pass option plays. But the Ducks will take shots, too. Ohio State's secondary has elite talent, but few teams can test them sideline-to-sideline like Oregon will on Saturday.
Proof in the Pudding
Five games into the season, the Buckeyes have looked good in the areas it was supposed to look good in and improved in the areas it needed to improve, but the caveat to that was they ain't played nobody.
Yes, Iowa has a good rushing offense and rushing defense. Yes, numbers don't lie, and all of them suggest the offensive line has gone from the biggest question mark for Ohio State to a strength. Yes, Will Howard's played the role of distributor and (mostly) taken care of the football the way he's needed to.
The fact remains this is the first team the Buckeyes play that should have a legitimate shot to beat them. With Howard, with the offensive line, with the defense maintaining or even building on its elite status from last year, all of it finally gets a real test in Eugene this Saturday.
If the Buckeyes come away victorious, it'll prove their national championship hype is warranted.
Watch Out for These Guys
Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel
Photo: Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
The lefty's long collegiate journey has included three schools (UCF, Oklahoma and Oregon), six seasons as a starter and one season-ending injury in 2021 that resulted in a medical redshirt to give him an added year of eligibility, which he used in 2024. Gabriel has the fourth-most career passing yards (16,314) and the third-most touchdowns (136) in NCAA history.
Gabriel leads the nation in completion percentage this season at 77.8, though his 8.7 yards per attempt is less than Horward's 9.6. Gabriel has 1,248 yards, 12 touchdowns and three interceptions through the air and is a threat to run with 1,131 career rushing yards.
"He's a very good player," Ryan Day said. "He's played a lot of football. He's experienced. He gets the ball out of his hand quickly, he's accurate. Very accomplished. His production speaks for itself, and his numbers overall, his body of work, and I think he's playing very well."
Oregon WR Tez Johnson
Not only is Johnson – whose 43 receptions are second in the Big Ten and whose 395 yards are seventh behind the likes of Jeremiah Smith (453) and Emeka Egbuka (433) – a stud receiver for Oregon, he's also a dynamic return man. Johnson has 11 punt returns for 134 yards (12.2 per return) and a touchdown this year.
PUNT RETURN TD FOR TEZ JOHNSON @oregonfootball takes the lead pic.twitter.com/gi0pjUwU8w
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 8, 2024
Johnson also had eight rushes for 51 yards and a touchdown in his three-year career at Troy, and though he hasn't carried the ball since transferring to Oregon in 2023, it shows his versatility and could be a wrinkle to keep in mind.
Oregon DE Jordan Burch and DT Derrick Harmon
The Ducks may have had inconsistencies defending the run at times this year, but their defensive line is disruptive. Oregon is tied for 11th in college football with 3.2 sacks per game.
Burch is a beast of an athlete, listed at 6-foot-6 and 295 pounds on Oregon's roster but still quick enough to threaten with outside rushes. His five sacks are tied for most in the Big Ten and he's added 19 tackles with seven tackles for loss.
"His athletic ability for such a big player – he's listed at 6-5, 290, but he plays defensive end," Ohio State offensive coordinator Chip Kelly said. "Most guys that big are interior defensive linemen, so he's a really athletic guy. He had a huge game against Michigan State last Friday night and really kind of showed up."
Defensive end Jordan Burch spearheads Oregon's defensive front. (Photo: Troy Wayrynen – Imagn Images)
Harmon is a former Michigan State defensive tackle and brief 2024 transfer portal target for Ohio State who's enjoyed a breakout season thus far. He's already hit career-highs in tackles for loss (five) and sacks (three) with 19 takedowns in total and three pass breakups.
The Buckeyes, on paper, should find some gains on the ground against the Ducks. But how Ohio State's offensive line holds up on passing downs against Oregon's front is one of the more crucial trends to watch between the two sides. Thus far in 2024, OSU is one of 11 teams in the country to allow four sacks or fewer.
Game Week Talk
“Every time you're playing one of these teams, you're fighting for an opportunity to go to Indianapolis, and that's important. So there's that part of it, and then there's obviously the playoff scenario. So a lot at stake this weekend, which is exactly the way we want it.”– Ryan Day on the implications of OSU's Game vs. Oregon
In addition to the buzz that comes with such a marquee college football game, there are also legitimate conference and College Football Playoff implications. Both teams would still have an inside track to make the 12-team CFP in the event of a loss and the loser could win out and still possibly get to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game. But the winner would need a total collapse not to make the former and would keep controlling its destiny to make the latter.
“They’re not really limited in what their strengths are. They’re able to run the ball really well. They’re able to throw it well. Talented at multiple positions. ... There are a lot of things that present threats.”– Dan Lanning on Ohio State's offense
Lanning, the defensive coordinator for one of the best defenses in college football history at Georgia in 2021, knows something about good offenses. When he says that there's no limit to the strengths of Ohio State's attack, it's easy to believe him. It gets even easier when one thinks about Egbuka, Smith, Henderson, Judkins and the rest of the Buckeyes' treasure trove of playmakers.
“You shake a little more, especially in the big-time games. But those are the moments I’m built for.”– Denzel Burke on playing in a Big game this weekend
Not much to add to this one, except that Denzel Burke is always a fantastic quote. All the buzz and buildup to this heavyweight clash is enjoyable, now it's time to watch a big-time college football game.
Get Smart
- Ohio State has a 9-1 all-time record vs. Oregon. The Buckeyes won the first nine games in the series; Oregon won the most recent contest, defeating Ohio State 35-28 at Ohio Stadium in 2021.
- Ohio State defeated Oregon 30-0 in the programs’ only previous meeting at Autzen Stadium in 1967.
- This will be the Buckeyes’ first conference game against any of the four former Pac-12 schools that joined the Big Ten this summer.
- This will be the fifth time Ohio State has played a game as the No. 2 team in the AP poll against the No. 3 team in the AP poll. The Buckeyes are 1-3 in those games with a win over Michigan in 2016 but losses to Clemson in 2019 and Michigan in both 2022 and 2023.
- Ohio State running backs coach Carlos Locklyn was the running backs coach at Oregon from 2022 until he joined Ohio State’s staff in April. OSU offensive coordinator Chip Kelly was Oregon’s head coach from 2009-12.
- Oregon tight ends coach Drew Mehringer was a graduate assistant at Ohio State in 2012 and 2013.
- Oregon’s roster includes two players from Ohio: Backup linebacker Jestin Jacobs (Englewood) and reserve offensive lineman Auston Mims (Akron). Ohio State has no players from Oregon.
- ESPN’s College GameDay will be on site for the game, marking Ohio State’s 60th game at a College GameDay site, the most of any school. OSU has a 40-19 record in GameDay games.
- This game will be Ohio State’s first game on NBC this season. It’s the third primetime game of the year for the Buckeyes, with the first two airing on Big Ten Network (Western Michigan) and Peacock (Michigan State).
How It Plays Out
Line: OSU -3, O/U 54
More Ohio State vs. Oregon Coverage
I see two key areas where Ohio State can gain separation in this one: The running game on offense and the interior defensive line on the other side of the ball. The Buckeyes can control the game if they're consistently hitting chunks like Boise State did, and Oregon's questions on the interior of its offensive line can be taken advantage of by Ty Hamilton and Tyleik Williams.
As a staff, Eleven Warriors unanimously picked the Buckeyes to win their top-three bout in Eugene, but only three of 14 staffers selected them by multiple scores. Expect a heavyweight bout that lives up to its top-three hype.
| Eleven Warriors Staff Prediction | ||||
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31 | 24 |
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