Stocks are down.
The truth about writing this piece is that it's rarely an even blend between good and bad trends for Ohio State. Either the Buckeyes win big and most things are hunky-dory or they lose (or win by too close a margin) and most things are plummeting toward an abyss. Sports operate in countless gray areas, but there's something black and white in Columbus – you have to win that game. The Game.
A psychological stubbornness to stick with the running game and a failure to adequately address special teams are easy reasons to pin on Ryan Day for why Ohio State lost to a Michigan team it simply couldn't have lost to without calls for his head. There are factors beyond his control too, like key offensive line injuries, but losing as a three-score favorite at home in your fourth straight defeat at the hands of Michigan is enough for an axe. That's the way it works around these parts.
But this is the year 2024 in college football. One saving grace remains, even if the slope of that climb seems impossibly uphill.
Stock Up
Last Chances
Ohio State bagged up its College Football Playoff berth a week before it played Michigan for all intents and purposes, smothering then-No. 5 Indiana 38-15 to collect its second top-five win of the season and 10th victory overall. That's of little consolation to Buckeye fans fresh off a rivalry loss, but it nonetheless provides a path to at least some redemption. And possibly a path for Day to save his job.
I'm no fortune teller. I'm not here to tell you exactly how many wins Day needs in the CFP to be coaching Ohio State next year, or even if Ross Bjork and the university are for-sure firing him with a first-round exit. My personal opinion is that two playoff wins is the minimum.
But there's no faith left in the man across Buckeye Nation. Most fans value the Michigan game above everything, at least barring a national championship. It's a high standard, but it's also what Day signed up for, and he's acknowledged that fact – the only chance left for him to salvage confidence in his program is with a deep playoff run, and probably only a national title for a lot of folks.
No pressure.
The Defense
Ohio State's defense tried with all its might to carry the team to victory on Saturday. Michigan was held to just 234 yards of offense and 4 yards per play. Wolverine quarterback Davis Warren threw for 62 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Michigan's only touchdown drive was 2 yards long, and one of its field goal drives was 3.
The Silver Bullets made a goal-line stand in the first half. They (Caleb Downs) picked off a pass on Michigan's 16-yard line to give the offense easy points and they came away with nothing. Gassed out after another punt with Michigan having 1st-and-goal at the 3-yard line in a tie game, Jack Sawyer stepped in to make one of the plays of his career.
CAPTAIN JACK WITH THE INTERCEPTION
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 30, 2024
UNBELIEVABLE PLAY FOR @OHIOSTATEFB pic.twitter.com/RLD2Qwa3Tc
Was it perfect? No. It's practically impossible for a defense to be perfect. They got worn out at the end, Kalel Mullings popped off a 27-yard run and the Wolverines set up their eventual game-winning field goal. But it's the offense and special teams that failed the Buckeyes on Saturday.
Thirteen points should always be enough with the offensive talent and coaching possessed by Ohio State.
Vices
I'm sure Buckeye fans attempted to numb their pain in various ways after the loss on Saturday. I find it ironic – if not funny – that the university published an alcohol-related study the following Monday. Because alcohol increases your tolerance for pain, apparently it can lower your empathy for others, because their pain rings less true to you. The study proposes this is part of the cause for increased aggression in people intoxicated from alcohol.
Regardless of how much drinking you've done post-The Game, my hope is that you continue to show empathy toward others. Remember, no matter how life and death it seems at the time, it is still just a game. Even if it's The Game.
Iowa State
The Cyclones were an afterthought for the Big 12 Championship Game after losing back-to-back conference contests with Texas Tech and Kansas just a few weeks ago, but responded with a three-game winning streak capped by a strong victory over No. 24 Kansas State, 29-21. Iowa State will play for its league title – and the CFP berth that almost certainly goes with it – against Arizona State this Saturday at noon on ABC.
Three-Loss Teams in the CFP
Alabama, at 9-3, is currently in the 11th spot in the AP Poll and could very well be the same in the next batch of CFP rankings after two teams in front of them, Clemson and Miami, lost over the weekend. A three-loss SEC team feels like an inevitability now (South Carolina and Ole Miss may also want their say at 9-3), the only possible hiccup coming if the committee decides to put a 10-2 Miami team with a pretty weak resume in over one of those SEC squads. Clemson could also beat SMU in the ACC Championship Game and guarantee the entry of a three-loss team.
Stock Down
Ryan Day
A lot's been said about Day and his failures to beat the team he has to beat in the days since Ohio State's latest rivalry floundering. I want to highlight one quote of Day's postgame.
"We ended up throwing, at the end of the game, 33 times out of how many plays we ran? 59," Day said. "So more passes than runs. But you can't just abandon the run."
I don't know if the first part of that answer is ignorance or gaslighting from Day. Where pointing to the slightly higher frequency of Ohio State's passes amid its total plays falls apart is in the fact that the Buckeyes had two drives where they had no choice but to rely on the pass, one at the end of each half. Take out those two possessions and the Buckeyes ran it 25 times while throwing it 20.
So when it wasn't forced to throw the football, Ohio State turned to the run on 56% of its plays when the entirety of Ohio Stadium could recognize it wasn't working. Day repeated throughout the week that the Buckeyes had to win the rushing battle to win the game, but by focusing all the effort on the rushing battle, he lost the game.
I don't care if Will Howard was evaluated for a concussion or threw two interceptions. You have a backup left guard, backup center and your worst starting lineman on the interior against perhaps the best defensive tackle tandem in America. Alternatively, you have the best receiver corps in the country going up against a middling secondary without its best player.
Abandon the run? No. But balance pass and run with those matchups? Hell no. The arrogance of Day and his offensive staff to think they could just keep bashing their heads against the brick wall between the tackles until it crumbled is unforgivable.
Chip Kelly
How much of the offensive playcalling catastrophe is on Day and how much is on Kelly is unknown. But the man brought in to take the scheme and play calls off Day's plate has to be brought into focus with these run vs. pass gripes too, and for general offensive futility.
The Offensive Line
Carson Hinzman helping to save the Ohio State offensive line with a breakout turn at left guard earlier this year was one of the better comeback stories on the team. Unfortunately, that hasn’t translated to playing center. Having to snap and block has made him bad at both, he rolled multiple balls to Howard's feet against the Wolverines and was overwhelmed with his interior matchups. Tegra Tshabola and Austin Siereveld didn't have much better games as the Buckeyes managed just three yards per carry.
Special Teams
Ohio State lost by three points on Saturday and the discrepancy between both teams' kickers accounts for nine of them. Michigan kicker Dominic Zvada made a 54-yard boot before halftime while Buckeye kicker Jayden Fielding couldn't hit either of his attempts from outside of 30 yards. The first was a 38-yarder that would have cut the Wolverines' early lead to 7-6, the second a 34-yarder that would have given OSU a 13-10 lead late in the third quarter.
Also, TreVeyon Henderson let a kickoff bounce in front of him and because footballs have the shape they always have, it bounced backward and he had to dive on it for no gain, pinning Ohio State at its own 6-yard line to start the third quarter.
Will Howard
Whether from the massive hit he took in the second quarter that had him evaluated for a concussion or the two interceptions he threw shaking his confidence, Howard had the worst game of his one-year Ohio State career, going 19-of-33 (58%) for 175 yards and no touchdowns with the two picks.
“I don't know what it was, but we got to execute better,” Howard said of Ohio State’s offensive struggles. “Bottom line is we lost. And it hurts, man. I can't say it enough, I'm sorry to Buckeye Nation. But, listen, we still got things ahead of us. And we can still run the table and win a national championship. I think at the end of the day, that's what you have to focus on, and that's got to keep us going. Because this one hurts like hell.”
Miami
Ohio State wasn't the only team to suffer a humiliating loss on Saturday. Miami likely killed its CFP hopes with a 42-38 loss to Syracuse. Former Buckeye quarterback Kyle McCord threw for 380 yards and three touchdowns for the Orange.
