Let me see if I understand this correctly.
The Ohio State Buckeyes, who feature TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins - easily America's most formidable backfield tandem - haven’t rushed the football effectively for six consecutive quarters. Currently, they line up behind an offensive line starting its 3rd string left tackle.
Not a big deal for this program though, right? A mere decade ago it claimed the CFP national title behind a 3rd string quarterback. But ten seasons after winning the big trophy it is now struggling to win individual drives. Here's how every possession since Josh Simmons was lost for the season has ended:
Touchdown, Punt, Field Goal, Premature Slide to End the Game, Downs, 3 and Out, Touchdown, Touchdown, Missed Field Goal, 3 and Out, Interception, 3 and Out, 3 and Out, Touchdown, 3 and Out, 3 kneel-downs.
They're 5-for-15 with the ball on non-victory formation drives since losing him. Prior to being forced to dip into what Ohio State controversially refers to as "offensive line depth" the Buckeyes deposited quite a bit of garbage time on the ledger. They were pulling away early and often.
During that period of this Natty or Bust™ mission, starters were finishing off meaningful drives more often than they weren't. Since then, well, please refer to the figure at the beginning of the previous paragraph
Defensively, Ohio State's corners are now actively getting picked on by opponents. Whenever an offense lines up 12 personnel, the Buckeyes remove Jordan Hancock from the field and replace him with [Linebacker Who Isn't As Good As Jordan Hancock] because old men with heavy salaries are stubborn creatures.
Special teams in 2024 are just mediocre now instead of the Federal crime they were the previous three seasons, so that's encouraging. The Homecoming escape from Nebraska was uninspired, and the aftermath has been decidedly pessimistic.
It now appears the Buckeyes are trending closer to Bust than Natty, which feels like an emotional statement. Math isn't emotional. Here's what the math says, adjusting for opponent quality:
EPA = Expected Points Added. Up = good defense, Right = good offense via
That sexy chart includes the bygone world where Simmons lines up at left tackle. We laid out the trend over the past 16 drives above - another performance like last weekend and that Ohio State logo chilling all by itself near in the top-right will slide westbound and down.
The Buckeyes' Homecoming shart gave fans plenty of worrisome reasons to soil our diapers with this team. Let's focus on the magical butt cream that soothes and comforts us in our time of discomfort: Chip Kelly, for starters - one of the greatest play designers of all time, with a strong history of talent-agnostic rushing production.
Ohio State's quarterback - we'll finish off this article talking about him - is steady, heady, ready and comprehensively Better Than Okay on top of being old and mature enough to not get lost in the moment. He throws to exceptional receivers who can get open against anyone this Saturday or on the schedule after that.
And that predictable, infuriating and alien-laden defense has Caleb Downs along with a bunch of seniors who just got a couple glaring reminders that simply returning for one last shot at a legacy worth remembering is only half of the story. The other half requires winning games like the next one.
Another top-five banger featuring the team you love to hate to love to hate to love! Let's get Situational.
OPENER | THE BRILLIANCE OF STARS
Oct 29, 2022: J.T. Tuimoloau runs for a touchdown after intercepting a Sean Clifford pass during the 4th quarter. © Adam Cairns-The Columbus Dispatch
J.T. Tuimoloau is one of the best Buckeyes we've ever seen - when he's forgotten or unchallenged.
When he has the freedom to operate, Tuimoloau blows up screen passes in South Bend, wrecks drives in West Lafayette and two years ago in State College - turns in a legacy performance for the ages. It's in the conversation for best individual performance by a Buckeye, ever.
When conditions are perfect, he's exceptional. But when he's challenged, JTT is Brian Robiskie.
Not the comparison you were expecting, was it. Robiskie arrived in Columbus 20 years ago and was a precise route runner with excellent hands, good speed and fluid hips. Like JTT, he was reliable whenever he was forgotten about or left unchallenged.
Feel free to peruse Youtube for his highlights, but you'll have a brutal time finding any moment during his four-year college career where he won a 50/50 battle and caught a disputed pass.
Penn State only knows the version of TUIMOLOAU which has given them hell.
While JTT did have The JTT Game and returns to that field on Saturday, Robiskie was always just a guy who excelled exclusively when he had freedom to operate. That afternoon in State College singlehandedly saved the Buckeyes from giving James Franklin what he's still trying to secure for his own legacy.
Tuimoloau made life difficult for Penn State in Columbus again last season as well, and over the weekend he flashed with a sack and two TFLs. You might remember those plays; Nebraska chose to give JTT freedom to operate. They just, you know, decided not to block him.
Penn State only knows the version of JTT which has given them hell, which is the one the Buckeyes need on Saturday. The home team should be expected to go out of its way to be inhospitable to no.44, which means his last shot (maybe?) at Penn State can make him an all-time Nittany Lion killer.
When the Buckeyes played their most recent top-5 battle (earlier this month in Eugene, look it up if you can't remember) no one from Larry Johnson's unit made a single play of significance. Last week against Nebraska they sprinkled in a few stunts and blitzes to juice the havoc while facing a freshman QB seemingly instructed to only throw screen passes.
On Saturday JTT is going to have to manufacture his significance against a heightened degree of difficulty. Games like this are why he returned for his senior year. He already had one, and was not the difference-maker Ohio State needed.
His team will need him to make some more highlights at Penn State's expense this weekend.
INTERMISSION
The Solo
The last time we had to tolerate the unforgivable phrase Defending National Champion Michigan Wolverines it was following the 1997 season. This year, intermissions will pay homage to that cursed year's Billboard Hot 100.
The lack of a formal White Out in State College this Saturday won't excuse the locals from dressing for the occasion, which will still produce a bleached stadium appearance at high noon. Not a White Out, but White Town is this week's intermission - he’s actually just One Guy, Jyoti Prakash Mishra.
Your Woman's imitable hook was lifted from Albert Bowlly's 1932 non-hit My Woman. It is a trumpet performance. Let's answer our two questions.
Is the musician in the video actually playing the trumpet?
First, we should address the solo, comprised of little bits of classic Casio-inspired 1980s beep boop blorp. It's perfect, unmysterious and conducted via synthesizer. The trumpet sample is much more interesting - it was originally performed by Nat Gonella in 1932.
Gonella passed away at the age of 90 in 1998 in England, which means he conceivably may have heard himself playing the trumpet in the number one song on the UK charts during his final year. VERDICT: No, conclusive.
does this trumpet hook slap?
The younger readers will recognize Gonella's trumpet from Dua Lipa's banger Love Again, which is a pastiche of Your Woman but keeps a now-92 year old trumpet hook intact. Timelessness like that is almost unheard of - what non-nursery rhyme or church hymnal hook has more lasting power? It's rhetorical, I don't care. VERDICT: Slaps.
The Bourbon
There is a bourbon for every situation. Sometimes the spirits and the events overlap, which means that where bourbon is concerned there can be more than one worthy choice.
Blanton's. Traditional, worthy, comforting.
Here's where I'll piss off some readers and declare Blanton's original single barrel the Penn State football of bourbons.
Stay with me - Blanton's is always quite good without being great, it's one of the most reliable heritage brands in FBS (Formidable Bourbon Selections) and whiskey history becomes riddled with holes if you pretend it never existed.
How many holes? It only takes one sentence to explain its significance: Buffalo Trace used to be the George T. Stagg Distillery until around WWII and the guys who ran it then were Colonel Albert B. Blanton and Elmer T. Lee. That’s bourbon mad libs. Only a couple of distant championships anyone can barely remember - but still a legacy worth savoring.
In recent years there's been a run on Blanton's across pockets of the country (like Ohio, according to your desperate emails and DMs) but this isn't a uniform scarcity situation. Blanton's is on shelves in the northeast at its standard shelf price ($65ish) and I saw bottles upon bottles at a Woolworth's in Sydney for $71 AUD (like 66 cents on the dollar).
So if you're in Australia, Blanton's is arbitragolicious - grab a few but keep it our secret. If you're unfamiliar, the little horsey corks they come with feature a different letter you can only spot once you open the bottle and the idea is to collect B-L-A-N-T-O-N-S, which requires making it a regular pour.
Tangerine nose, burnt sugar on the palate and a mild cinnamon finish - year after year, barrel after barrel. You always know what you're going to get and it's perfectly just fine.
CLOSER | FEAR OF A SETTING SUN
Will Howard gets tackled by Nebraska linebacker MJ Sherman on a run during the 2nd quarter last weekend.© Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
The only differences between Ohio State's atrocious Cotton Bowl against Missouri and last weekend's clunker against Nebraska was the performance of Will Howard and the availability of Jeremiah Smith.
The Buckeyes were as mystifyingly and rudderless on offense as they were in Arlington but still won because their quarterback was prepared and versatile. He also had his top target to throw to, which gave Carnell Tate a wider berth to succeed. Kyle McCord's backups didn't have Marvin Harrison Jr. to loosen up their opponent.
The common element is the abysmal condition of the offensive line, coached and recruited by Justin Frye, who worked with Day at Temple and Boston College - where he produced strong outcomes.
That has decidedly not been the case in Columbus, and now in his third season his unit is the weakest link in the program by a significant and startling margin. That Missouri game plan and performance screamed We Don't Trust Our Offensive Line from the very first snap of the game.
Ten months later it's somehow become even less trustworthy. Another Cotton Bowl is possible with this unit, and that’s not pessimism. It’s realism.
Will Howard has the moxie and experience to overcome what McCord's backups - and even McCord Himself - could not behind justin frye's offensive line.
We're only seven games removed from a totally unacceptable performance which sent Day charging into the offseason making changes which were long overdue. One area he didn't touch was the O-line. Another was Tight Ends, coached by Keenan Bailey, one of those guys who was already in the room when he entered it in 2017.
The Buckeyes went into the portal to get a tight end who could block and got him - but Will Kacmarek is injured, as is portal gem Simmons - the two most competent blockers on the roster. What's left in their absence is what we saw against Nebraska, which was a home-grown, Developed Here™ collection of Guys Who Cannot Block Well Enough Despite Several Years of Training.
Frye was an acceptable hire, however familiar and friendly Day was with him - but Temple isn't Ohio State. Bailey should have a short leash for delivering a single tight end who can block competently and sustainably. Cade Stover was conspicuously not good enough at that (watch no.87 over the weekend on this play if you'd like a reminder of what TE1 was like the past couple of seasons when he wasn’t a passing target).
This long-held belief among the negative wing of the fan base along with the abrupt realization of its validity following Simmons' exit could very easily produce ominous feelings of dread. And they're justified - it's hard to watch the games and feel otherwise.
But there's a reason Ohio State won on Saturday in spite of its Cotton Bowlish offensive line. Revisit the first sentence of this section if you've already misplaced it.
Howard has the moxie and experience to overcome what McCord's backups - and even McCord himself - could not. His receivers force defenses into caution, no matter how futile the line might be.
And Ohio State's offensive coordinator is quite famous for doing more with less. That wasn't the value proposition when he came to Columbus, but now it's the job. It's time to win with Less.
Thanks for getting Situational today. Go Bucks. Beat Penn State.
