Skull Session: Ohio State Still Ranks Second in SP+, Jim Knowles’ Defenses Have Fourth-Quarter Problems in Big Games and Joel Klatt Says Jeremiah Smith’s OPI Was a “Poor Call”

I'll say it – having to wait 10 days for Ohio State football sucks. It sucks so hard.

Noon Kick pic.twitter.com/DaisisZF4c

— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) October 14, 2024

Have a good Wednesday.

 THE COMPUTERS! It's Wednesday. You know what that means. It's time to examine Ohio State's place in the SP+ and College Football Power Index. This week, I'll also include a look at how ESPN Analytics views the Buckeyes' chances to win the rest of their regular-season games in 2024.

SP+

Ohio State's remaining 2024 opponents in the SP+: Nebraska (22), Penn State (6), Purdue (82), Northwestern (71), Indiana (15), Michigan (21)

College Football Power Index

Ohio State's remaining 2024 opponents in the College Football Power Index: Nebraska (43), Penn State (9), Purdue (102), Northwestern (72), Indiana (15), Michigan (33)

ESPN Analytics

Man, week after week, I feel the need to apologize to Curt Cignetti because I, the smooth-brained Skull Session writer at Eleven Warriors, was not familiar with his game. And he even told the college football world, "I win. Google me."

Undefeated after six games, Indiana will face Nebraska, Washington, Michigan State and Michigan before traveling to Columbus. ESPN Analytics likes the Hoosiers to win each of those contests – yes, even their bout with the Wolverines. That's the reason – and I can't believe this is the case after Indiana went 9-27 combined the past three seasons – the Matchup Predictor sees the Hoosiers as more of a threat to Ohio State this year than "That Team Up North."

 SO MUCH FOR STOP RATE. Since Jim Knowles took over as Ohio State's defensive coordinator in 2022, the Buckeyes have been a top-five team in stop rate, a metric that measures "the percentage of a defense’s drives that end in punts, turnovers or turnovers on downs.”

That's good. That's great. That's grand.

But... 

I don't care where Ohio State ranks in stop rate if the defense can't get a stop against talented-equated teams.

I saw this stat on X this week – and I think it originated from Bill Landis of Rivals, so credit to him if that's the case – that the Buckeyes haven't forced a fourth-quarter punt in the four games he's called vs. AP top-five teams: 2022 vs. Michigan, 2022 vs. Georgia, 2023 vs. Michigan and 2024 vs. Oregon.

That's correct.

Not one... punt... forced.

The 11 combined fourth-quarter drives in those games ended like this: TD, Missed FG, TD, TD, FG, TD, TD, FG, FG, TD and FG.

To be fair to Knowles, Ohio State's offense didn't help him much. In those same four games, the Buckeyes also had 11 combined four-quarter drives that ended like this: Punt, FG, INT, INT, Punt, FG, Missed FG, TD, INT, FG and Clock Expiration.

That's just...

... sad.

 “A POOR CALL.” Consider Joel Klatt surprised that the referees penalized Jeremiah Smith for offensive pass interference in Ohio State's 32-31 loss to Oregon.

The controversial OPI call occurred on the final drive of the top-three showdown. With less than 30 seconds left, the Ohio State offense faced 2nd-and-10 from the Oregon 28-yard line when Smith separated himself from Nikko Reed and received the penalty, knocking the Buckeyes back 15 yards to the Oregon 43.

"I was shocked watching the game that they called the offensive pass interference," Klatt said on The Joel Klatt Show. "I talk with officials all the time and generally speaking, here's what it comes down to: For offensive pass interference, they want to see a clear extension. They want to see the arm clearly extend in order to gain separation."

Klatt agreed that Smith – who had nine receptions for 100 yards and one touchdown in the contest – engaged in contact with Reed. However, he doesn't believe the referees should have made the game-altering call.

"Was there contact between Jeremiah Smith and the corner? Yes. And was it physical? Yes. There's no doubt," Klatt said. "On the film, all night, it had been physical, and in fact, in the previous play, Jeremiah Smith is being held the entire time he's trying to run a corner route. It was a physical game. And they had let them play, for the most part, throughout the entirety of the game.

"Then all of a sudden, the corner squats, and Jeremiah Smith is running his route and contacts the corner and then breaks out, doesn't extend; again, he doesn't push off in order to create the space. And the flag comes out. I thought it was a bad call. Just kind of point-blank. I would say that for anybody.

"Why? Because based on my conversations with officials, he didn't extend, he doesn't push. Is there contact? Yes. Is there contact on every play before that? Yes. The fact that the flag came out there was a poor call."

I agree. Smith was called for OPI because he, a 6-foot-3, 215-pound freshman, bodied Reed, a 5-foot-10, 180-pound senior, as he created separation. When the referees witnessed Smith make someone three years older than him a little brother, they penalized him, and that's poor. Still, the circumstances, while unfortunate, should have never existed in the first place. Day addressed that after the game, and I agree with him even more than I agree with Klatt.

“It shouldn't come down to one play,” Day said. “We want to leave no doubt, and I felt like we should have done that tonight. We did not. And so then, you put it in the hands of a call, and you don't get it, then that's on us. It should have never come down to that situation."

 MONEY, MONEY, MONEY, MONEY... MONEY! The Big Ten and SEC don't want a college football super league. But a scheduling agreement? Sign them up!

According to USA TODAY, the conferences' leaders have discussed a new scheduling agreement that could include 16 or more games pitting schools from the leagues against each other each college football season. The games could take the form of similar conference vs. conference competitions in college basketball, like the ACC-SEC Challenge (RIP the ACC-Big Ten Challenge).

In 2024, teams from the Big Ten and SEC have faced off three times, with USC beating LSU, Texas beating Michigan and Alabama beating Wisconsin. According to Sports Media Watch, all three matchups were among the top 10 most-watched games through the first three weeks of the college football season.

We'll see if the scheduling agreement works out, as there are obvious questions that would need to be answered before handshakes are made and documents are signed. Those questions include, but are not limited to: How would revenue be shared between the conferences? Which television network would broadcast the games? How do the leagues weigh the fact that the Big Ten has nine conference games and the SEC has eight?

Given the Money, Money, Money, Money... Money! that could be made from an agreement of this magnitude, I think Greg Sankey and Tony Petitti could be incentivized to answer these questions sooner rather than later.

 SONG OF THE DAY. "For the Love of Money" - The O'Jays.

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