Monday's Poll Watch returns with a glimpse into the peculiarities of the AP Top 25 ballots and ballot voter data even now with the College Football Playoff committee releasing its late season rankings. We scan these ballots to look for interesting patterns and what they may say about the college football landscape as the season progresses.
No Change for Ohio State at No. 2
There was a faint chance Ohio State could reclaim its No. 1 ranking with the latest Sunday AP Poll. After all, Clemson struggled on the road against a now 3-7 Syracuse team while Ohio State had little difficulty dispatching a five-loss Illini team on the road. Further, Baylor lost at home to Oklahoma. This left open the possibility that Ohio State could take some of its votes, including its two No. 1 votes.
However, the new AP Top 25 featured no substantive change for Ohio State from last week. Ohio State actually lost three No. 1 votes from last week while Clemson gained seven points from last week. Ohio State actually has the same number of total points (1,460) from last week.
For what it's worth, there's nothing in the AP voter data this week that dispells my hunch that there are important peer effects of the Collge Football Playoff committee rankings. Entering the season, I would have thought we'd see greater dissent from the College Football Playoff. Such a dissent would allow the Associated Press voters to better distinguish themselves from the Playoff, perhaps even threatening to crown its own national champion like it did in 2003.
I think we're seeing the opposite. The AP voters (and the coaches' SIDs) are front-running with the College Football Playoff committee rankings, likely to be appear more credible knowing that the committee decides who competes for a national championship.
Clemson, a fair No. 1 choice to be sure, got both of the first-place votes previously given to Baylor last week. Those votes were cast by Michael Lev and Gary Smits, notwithstanding Clemson's difficulties in the Carrier Dome.
For those curious, Ohio State lost No. 1 votes from Joel Klatt, John Shinn, and Tim Griffin. Klatt and Shinn have Ohio State at No. 2 this week and Clemson at No. 1. Tim Griffin actually bumped Ohio State to No. 3 on his ballot, below Clemson and Alabama.
However, Ohio State, which had previously been picking up votes from No. 6 and below (even into double digits) in the week prior to the first playoff rankings, is now No. 1 through No. 4 on all 61 ballots cast this week except, naturally, Jon Wilner. He has Ohio State at No. 5.
None of the above necessarily proves my hunch about peer effects and the response to signals the playoff committee sends with its polls. However, the above observations are certainly consistent with it.
Michigan State Makes a Surge
Michigan State's loss last Saturday at Nebraska was inexcusable in the broad scheme of things. Ohio State fans may worry that takes the luster off a victory Ohio State fans hope to observe on Saturday. However, Michigan State made up important ground in this week's poll when it climbed from No. 14 to No. 9 this week.
Only Oklahoma matched that surge into the top ten this week.
Not every voter is buying the Spartans after a difficult win at home against Maryland. For example, Josh Kendall (more on him later) has Michigan State at No. 18, a full five spots below its next lowest ranking of No. 13 (Gary Smits).
However, the modal vote for Michigan State is actually No. 8 this week. The ever mercurial Jon Wilner even has Michigan State at No. 6 this week.
What does this mean? An Ohio State victory on Saturday would naturally knock Michigan State out the top ten of the AP Top 25. However, the distance Michigan State falls is unlikely to be as large as it could be if Michigan State were the AP No. 14 again this week.
Put another way, Michigan State would still appear on almost every ballot again next week (Josh Kendall notwithstanding). Should Michigan State rebound the week thereafter against Penn State, Ohio State would have its first real "quality win" of the season.
These People Voted for Ole Miss. Boo These People.
Ole Miss had a bye last week. Given movement out the poll elsewhere (e.g. UCLA, Memphis, and Mississippi State), that allowed Ole Miss and its 40 total points to sneak into No. 25 in this week's poll.
If you had lost track, Ole Miss lost at Memphis, got boatraced by Florida, and lost to 6-4 Arkansas. There's nothing about Ole Miss' schedule to date that suggests a top 25 team except for the upset of Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
Cynically, I think we're keeping Ole Miss on some ballots to make an otherwise inexcusable loss by Alabama look okay by comparison.
Ole Miss appears on 16 ballots this week. Its highest spot is a No. 21 vote from Mike Sands. Ed Daigneault and Laura Keeley also have Ole Miss at No. 22. Daigneault's vote was most curious because, unlike Keeley and Sands, he did not have Ole Miss ranked on his ballot last week at all.
There must have been something about Ole Miss' performance against the bye that did it for him.
Other Peculiar Observations
- Arkansas has two straight wins against Ole Miss and at LSU. It's now getting votes in the AP. My favorite is the No. 14 vote from Josh Kendall. Kendall is responsible for 12 of Arkansas' 35 total points this week in the AP. That he has 6-4 Arkansas over 9-1 Michigan State by four whole spots on his ballot is a curious vote to say the least.
- Here's your weekly Jon Wilner vs. the AP consensus update. If it seems subdued this week, recall Wilner really does not like the quality of the Big XII. Losses by Baylor and Texas Christian make his ballot seem more palatable.
Jon Wilner vs. the AP Consensus, Week 12. Note: Wilner *really* does not like the Big 12. pic.twitter.com/6XY9xbpzD9
— Vico (@ourhonordefend) November 15, 2015
- North Carolina has four votes at No. 8 or No. 9. Eric Hansen has the Tar Heels at No. 19 this week, though.
- Houston appears at No. 5 on Gary Smits' ballot. He actually has Alabama at No. 6. I can dig that.
- Iowa appears at No. 4 on six ballots. Sam Werner even has the Hawkeyes at No. 3.
