The Game sits just three sunrises away.
Ryan Day met with the assembled media yesterday to preview the clash and while numerous factors go into prevailing in the greatest rivalry in all of sports, running the ball and stopping the run will always be at the forefront.
Beginning with The Game in 2000, the team that rushes for more yards is 22-1. Ohio State is 17-1 during that stretch when winning the line of scrimmage against Michigan. The Wolverines are 5-0 when outrushing the Buckeyes.
Day knows this.
that's how you control the game on both sides of the ball. So that's something that has to be done, and you just look historically that that's how you win the game. But that's not the only thing. There's a lot that comes with it. And so, like every game we go into, we'll work hard to do what we think best helps us win the game. But, yeah, the team who runs the ball and the team who stops the run is going to win the game.– Ryan Day
The Buckeyes are just 1-3 versus Michigan with Day as their head coach and in all three of those losses they were unable to run the ball and/or stop the run. In their lone victory, a 56-27 thrashing, the Buckeyes outrushed the Wolverines 264-91.
| SEASON | OSU RUSH YDS | OSU RUSH YPC | MICH RUSH YDS | MICH RUSH YPC | GAME OUTCOME |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 107 | 3.8 | 156 | 4.0 | MICHIGAN 30-24 |
| 2022 | 143 | 4.9 | 252 | 7.2 | MICHIGAN 45-23 |
| 2021 | 64 | 2.1 | 297 | 7.2 | MICHIGAN 42-27 |
| 2020 | JIM HARBAUGH | DUCKED | OHIO STATE | AS A | 30 POINT UNDERDOG |
| 2019 | 264 | 5.3 | 91 | 3.5 | OHIO STATE 56-27 |
With the gravity of this metric on The Game's outcome, it's worth noting Ohio State's offense has been statistically better than Michigan this year, averaging more rushing yards per game and yards per carry.
| TEAM | RUSH YARDS PER GAME | NATL RANK | RUSH YARDS PER CARRY | NATL RANK | ATTEMPTS PER GAME |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO STATE | 177.6 | 48 | 5.2 | 24 | 34.5 |
| MICHIGAN | 159.6 | 71 | 4.5 | 62 | 35.7 |
The Buckeyes have outrushed nine of 11 opponents so far this year. In the two failures to do so, they lost to Oregon by a point in Eugene while being outgained by a mere 14 yards and they beat Nebraska while being outrushed by a 121-64 margin. Ohio State lost its best offensive lineman, Josh Simmons, in that loss to the Ducks and the contest with the Huskers was the first attempt at retooling the line to deal with Simmons' absence.
Saturday versus the Wolverines, the re-re-tooled OSU offensive line plays its second game together after center Seth McLaughlin went down in practice leading up to last weekend's dismantling of Indiana. The left to right offensive line of Donovan Jackson, Austin Siereveld, Carson Hinzman, Tegra Tshabola and Josh Fryar will look to open holes primarily for TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. The elite duo enters Saturday's contest averaging 135 rushing yards per game on 6.4 per try with 14 rushing touchdowns.
Quarterback Will Howard could emerge as an X-factor on the ground in this one, particularly in the red zone or short yardage. He's a willing runner - something Ohio State didn't have in last year's loss to Michigan - with 230 rushing yards gained this year (109 lost for a net of 121) and seven touchdowns.
Looking at Michigan's offense, the Wolverines are 5-2 this season when outgaining opponents on the ground and just 1-3 when they do not. Texas, Illinois and Oregon all piled up more rushing yards than Michigan on the way to victory while Michigan State outrushed the maize and blue 176-105 but still took an L.
The Wolverines also deploy a two-headed tailback situation with Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards. Mullings has 29 more carries on the season and averages 5.4 yards per try with 11 touchdowns. Edwards is averaging a pedestrian 4.7 yards per carry with four touchdowns on the ground but I don't have to tell you how he's played against the Buckeyes.
| TEAM | RUSH YDS ALLOWED / GAME | NATL RANK | RUSH YPC ALLOWED/ GAME | NATL RANK | RUSH TD ALLOWED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO STATE | 90.0 | 3 | 2.7 | 3 | 8 |
| MICHIGAN | 94.0 | 4 | 3.1 | 12 | 10 |
On the other side of the ball, Ohio State comes into The Game ranked No. 3 in both rushing yards allowed per game (90.0) and yards per carry allowed (2.7). With Michigan's struggles to throw the football, especially downfield, the Buckeyes might look to stack the box to stop the run and dare the Wolverines to throw.
Michigan, despite the team's overall lumps that come with a 6-5 record, has been almost equally elite in stopping the run. The Wolverines slot No. 4 nationally giving up just 94 rushing yards per contest and No. 12 in giving up 3.1 yards per carry.
Sherrone Moore's club assumedly won't have the same luxury of stacking the box given Ohio State's lethal passing attack but if the wind were to gust 22-25 mph as the current forecast suggests, that could somewhat diminish OSU's aerial advantage. Either way, the new-look offensive line will have its hands full with interior defensive linemen Mason Graham (7.0 TFL, 3.5 sacks) and Kenneth Grant (6.0 TFL, 3.0 sacks). Edge Josaiah Stewart will challenge OSU's tackles based on his 13.0 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks so far this season and fellow edge TJ Guy (6.0 TFL, 5.5 sacks) is an underrated player in his own right.
As a 21-point favorite, the odds suggest Ohio State has the goods to win the rushing yards battle and beat the Wolverines for the first time since 2019 but games aren't played on paper. Day's squad needs to prove it's the better team on the field come Saturday at high noon.
