Monday's Poll Watch returns with a glimpse into the peculiarities of the AP Top 25 ballots and ballot voter data. We scan these ballots to look for interesting patterns and what they may say about the college football landscape as the season progresses.
Clemson's Rough Start
Ohio State fans remember how fast Ohio State fell from the grace of the AP selectors early into last season. Clemson is experiencing a similar fall now. The preseason No. 2 Tigers have struggled to put away two bad teams (Auburn, Troy) and are tanking in the latest AP rankings for it.
| Voter | Pre-Season Vote | Week 3 Vote |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Zucker | 1 | 6 |
| Brent Axe | 1 | 4 |
| Brian Howell | 1 | 3 |
| Dave Southorn | 1 | 3 |
| Eric Hansen | 1 | 8 |
| Gary Horowitz | 1 | 6 |
| Gary Smits | 1 | 3 |
| Jimmy Burch | 1 | 7 |
| Joe Walljasper | 1 | 7 |
| Joey Knight | 1 | 4 |
| John Shinn | 1 | 3 |
| Jonny Miller | 1 | 6 |
| Kirk Bohls | 1 | 7 |
| Matt McCoy | 1 | 2 |
| Michael Lev | 1 | 6 |
| Robert Cessna | 1 | 3 |
Consider the table to the right, which shows Clemson's pre-season No.1 votes with where these voters have Clemson in Week 3. Voters like Eric Hansen, Jimmy Burch, Joe Walljasper, and Kirk Bohls dumped their stock in their pre-season No. 1 team. Still others, like Brian Howell, Dave Southorn, John Shinn, and Robert Cessna, were more forgiving by sliding the Tigers to No. 3 amid strong showings from Ohio State and Florida State to start the season. Matt McCoy even has them at No. 2.
Clemson's top-ballot votes have gone elsewhere the following weeks. Alabama has consolidated more No. 1 votes, taking several of Clemson's pre-season No. 1s. Florida State may have benefited more than any other program. The Seminoles are No. 2 on almost every ballot that also has the Crimson Tide at No. 1.
Ohio State has also benefited from Clemson's rough start. Ohio State had just two No. 2 votes in the pre-season (Ed Johnson, Mitch Vingle). It now has nine No. 2 votes. Whether the Buckeyes can keep those, or even add to them after Saturday, is an open question.
Jon Wilner's Latest Ballot
In my infinite vanity, I'm convinced Jon Wilner casts insane ballots just to get my attention on this Eleven Warriors feature. It is bad form to humor sportswriters with terrible takes; look no further than the ship of fools FOX Sports currently employs (e.g. Bayless, Cowherd, Travis). However, Wilner is small fish in the broad scheme of things. His takes are more daffy than abrasive or harmful, which is my justification.
That, and is latest ballot is worth beholding. It always is.
For new readers unaccustomed to this feature, Jon Wilner is a sportswriter for The Mercury News in San Jose whose ballots routinely defy any conventional attempt at an ad hoc rationalization. I think of myself as a reasonably smart man but I cannot put forward a coherent logic for Wilner's ballots. Wilner himself increasingly does not either. His ballots are better understood, and better enjoyed, as performance art rather than reasonable attempt at a ranking of the top 25 teams in college football for the week.
Here are the important highlights from his latest ballot.
- Texas is the AP No. 11 and his No. 2. No other voter had Texas higher than No. 5 (Brett McMurphy).
- Notre Dame, the AP No. 18, is his No. 6. Wilner had the Irish as his pre-season No. 6. He kept the Irish at No. 6 after the Texas loss and they remain at No. 6 after the win over Nevada. No other voter has the Irish ranked higher than No. 10 (Adam Jude, Brett McMurphy).
- Arkansas, which defeated a TCU team that struggled to beat an FCS team the week before, is his No. 9. Minus a No. 11 vote from Bill Landis, no other voter had Arkansas higher than No. 13 (Patrick Brown). Thereafter, the next highest votes are at No. 16 and No. 17. It's not like Arkansas itself looked that hot to begin the season.
- Ohio State is his No. 10 and Michigan is No. 11. Some skepticism about the two favorites in the Big Ten East this early into the season is justifiable even if Wilner does not outline the reasons for this skepticism. However, do note his Ohio State vote is the lowest of any voter by three spots (Ross Dellenger has Ohio State at No. 7). Likewise, his Michigan vote is the lowest of any voter by three spots (Brett McMurphy has Michigan at No. 8).
- TCU is his No. 15 even if the Horned Frogs are now unranked after the narrow win over South Dakota State and the loss to Arkansas at home. Wilner slid the Horned Frogs just two spots from No. 9 to No. 11 after the South Dakota State game and just four spots after losing to Arkansas.
- LSU, his pre-season No. 2, is still his No. 14. He didn't move them from the last ballot.
- Michigan State is his No. 24. The Spartans are the AP No. 12. Several other voters have Michigan State in the twenties, but Wilner is tied with Ed Johnson for Michigan State's second lowest vote. Kirk Bohls actually has the Spartans off his ballot.
Look at his ballot and chase it with his blog post that accompanies it. It would make any high school sophomore think he could be a unionized sportswriter right now as well.
Is Wisconsin a Top Ten Team?
The best fodder for conversation in the AP Poll is in the middle. Votes at the top do not deviate far. It's also reasonable that a team ranked in the high teens or low twenties would not appear on several ballots. The fun place to look is in the low double digits.
This week's conversation: is Wisconsin really a top ten team and how much credit should fans give the Badgers for a win over an LSU team whose offensive philosophy is best described as "Cro-Magnon"?
| Voter | Wisconsin Vote | LSU Vote |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Vingle | 6 | 20 |
| Bill Landis | 7 | 21 |
| Brett McMurphy | 7 | 24 |
| Ed Johnson | 7 | 15 |
| Garland Gillen | 7 | 22 |
| Gary Horowitz | 7 | 11 |
| Jon Wilner | 7 | 14 |
| Brian Howell | 17 | 18 |
| Joe Walljasper | 17 | NR |
| Marq Burnett | 17 | 25 |
| Matt Galloway | 17 | 20 |
| Robert Cessna | 19 | 20 |
| Andy Greder | 20 | 10 |
The No. 9 Badgers are a source some controversy in the AP. Wisconsin appears on every ballot but the variation is great. Their ranking is tied to how much weight voters should put on the victory over an LSU team. Observe the table to the right, which shows some of the highest and lowest votes for Wisconsin along with where these voters also ranked LSU.
The tail end of the vote distribution for Wisconsin does not perfectly suggest the perception of LSU is a weight on where the Badgers should fall, but some of the higher votes for Wisconsin also coincide with higher votes for LSU on the ballot.
The clear outlier here is Andy Greder. Greder, a Minnesota Golden Gophers beat writer for the St. Paul Pioneer Press, has LSU at No. 10 and Wisconsin at No. 20. This is incidentally the highest vote for LSU and the lowest vote for Wisconsin on any given ballot. Go Gophers; never graduate.
Other Peculiar Observations
- Every voter that does not have Alabama at No. 1 has Alabama at No. 2.
- Pittsburgh's win over Penn State netted it a 32-point increase in the AP, though it does not appear in the Top 25. Its highest vote was No. 18 (Scott Hamilton).
- Ole Miss' highest vote is No. 10 (Matt Porter).
- Not everyone is sold on Houston yet. Mike Barber and Rob Long even have the Cougars at No. 9.
- There's some optimism for Florida among a handful of voters. Mike Barber and Tom Murphy have Florida at No. 11. Joe Walljasper has the Gators at No. 12.
