Following Week 2 of the college football season, the still-very-early 12-team College Football Playoff picture has already gotten murkier.
Northern Illinois’ upset of Notre Dame has put the Fighting Irish’s playoff chances in dire circumstances, and some traditional contenders in power conferences looked sluggish against other Group of Five teams.
Every Tuesday here at Eleven Warriors, we’re taking a look at the weekly CFP outlook based on the results available to us at a time, even if the data is still extremely limited after just two weeks.
Here's how the 12-team CFP would be formatted if the season ended today, based on the latest Associated Press Top 25 Poll.
This is what the playoff would look like based on today's AP poll: pic.twitter.com/gAoX1knrNp
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) September 8, 2024
And now, here’s a conference-by-conference breakdown of who could be in contention for a CFP spot. As you’d expect, the categories and schools in them are subjective. In case you need a reminder, the 12-team CFP format is five conference champions (including one Group of Five team) and seven at-large selections.
Big Ten
Conference contenders: Ohio State, Oregon (...I think?)
Teams with a clear path to an at-large: Penn State, USC
Darkhorses: Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan
Darkest of darkhorses: Rutgers, Illinois
Breakdown: Two weeks into the season, the Big Ten is shaping up to be Ohio State, then everyone else. It's early, but the Buckeyes appear to be the class of the league.
Oregon continues to play with its food and has very real concerns on both sides of the football, but the Ducks still boast a loaded roster and get the Buckeyes at home in October.
Penn State looked like rock stars against West Virginia then sleepwalked in an eventual win against Bowling Green. Still, it’s hard to see the Nittany Lions dropping any contests besides the matchups with Ohio State and potentially USC.
USC got a marquee win against LSU in Week 1, and then pummeled an admittedly subpar Utah State team 48-0. The Trojans’ offense should always be fine with Lincoln Riley in charge, but if this defensive resurgence is indeed for real, USC might be more of a contender than we originally thought.
Michigan’s offense continued to look like a train wreck against Texas, but more concerning, the Wolverines’ defense was also exposed against the Longhorns. Granted, I can’t imagine too many offenses will carve up that defense the way Texas did, but with an anemic offense, more losses could be on the table than expected. That matchup with USC in two weeks looks a lot scarier than it did in the offseason. Oregon and OSU still loom. Road games at Illinois and Washington aren’t automatic. It’s still too early to write the Wolverines off completely, but it’s hard to see this roster getting enough wins for a CFP berth.
Iowa had a gut punch delivered to its playoff chances after Iowa State’s game-winning 54-yard field goal last week, but if the Hawkeyes finished 10-2 with the loss coming to OSU, it would still have a chance at playing for the Big Ten title.
Dylan Raiola continues to impress for the Cornhuskers. A game that might have some slightly raised stakes nobody was anticipating this early: Illinois at Nebraska in Week 4.
Rutgers will go as far as Kyle Monangai can take the Scarlet Knights, even if he has to have 29 carries a game like he did against Akron last week. Illinois looks better than anticipated after an upset win against Kansas last week, but the Illini have a murder’s row of opponents this season: Nebraska, Penn State, Michigan, Oregon and Rutgers. They’d have to win at least three of those and the rest of their games to have a shot at an at-large berth.
SEC
Conference contenders: Georgia, Texas
Teams with a path to an at-large: Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee
Darkhorses: LSU
Breakdown: Georgia and Texas are clearly two of the best three teams in the sport right now (alongside OSU). Ohio State fans are in for a treat because the Buckeyes will be on another off week when these two play each other on Oct. 19.
Alabama had to survive a taffy pull against USF, which was a one-score game in the fourth quarter. The Crimson Tide are a heavy favorite against Wisconsin this week, but we’ll see how things go as they travel 870 miles to Madison for Saturday’s game.
Two things are true about Missouri: The Tigers have yet to play anybody with a pulse, and they’ve yet to allow a single point this season. Their matchup with Boston College this week will be interesting.
Ole Miss also looks like a world-beater and has a schedule tailor-made for a CFP berth. Tennessee dismantled North Carolina State on Saturday and has the offensive firepower to compete with anyone.
Somehow Oklahoma let Houston hang around last week, which isn’t a great sign considering the Sooners’ schedule is unforgiving. Still, let’s see how they respond.
LSU isn’t setting the world on fire, but you can’t count the Tigers’ offense out yet.
ACC
Conference contenders: Miami, Clemson
Darkhorse conference contenders: Louisville, Syracuse
On life support: Florida State
Breakdown: Miami still seems like the only team in the ACC that has a path to an at-large bid if it slips up in the ACC championship game. The Hurricanes have the best roster on paper in the conference and are the clear favorite to win the league.
Clemson rebounded nicely after a dud Week 1 by scoring 66 points against Appalachian State. It’ll have to make another big statement this week against a North Carolina State team that got dusted by Tennessee and thus is removed from the playoff pursuit for now.
Kyle McCord continues to be a godsend for Syracuse. If McCord can continue to throw for 300-plus in every game, the Cusies are going to be a tough out for anyone in the ACC. Louisville had two blowout victories against inferior opponents to start the season and now will have an off week.
The next loss Florida State suffers will end its 2024 playoff dreams.
Big 12
Conference contenders: Utah, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Iowa State
Darkhorse conference contenders: Kansas, Arizona
Breakdown: The Big 12 could also be a one-bid league, especially since there’s arguably more parity in this conference than in any other league.
Utah quarterback Cam Rising got hurt in the win against Baylor, but all indications are that the injury was minor, even if he has to miss a week or so.
Oklahoma State can thank its lucky horseshoe Arkansas had costly turnovers and threw away the game against the Cowboys despite outgaining them by a significant amount. Still, the Cowboys are 2-0 despite a meager ground game, and with Ollie Gordon II there, you can’t imagine that will continue forever.
Iowa State pulled off a double-digit comeback against Iowa and now has a backloaded schedule with two of its final three games coming against Kansas and Kansas State. With no Utah on the schedule this season, the Cyclones have a very real chance of getting to the Big 12 Championship Game.
Kansas State had a close call against Tulane but held on, and now has an interesting Friday matchup against an Arizona team that is very fun but has also been very inconsistent.
Kansas losing against Illinois was a little disappointing for the Jayhawks, but it wasn’t a Big 12 loss and frankly winning the league is KU’s only prayer of getting in anyway.
Group of Five
Teams with a path to earn the G5 spot: Northern Illinois, Boise State, Liberty, Memphis, Toledo, Coastal Carolina
Breakdown: As always, the Group of Five section is the hardest to pinpoint and the most subjective. There could be a few Group of Five teams with similar résumés at the end of the year, but only one is going to the CFP.
As of now, Northern Illinois controls its own destiny as far as I’m concerned. With a win against Notre Dame, the Huskies probably have the single best Group of Five win any team is going to get this season; now, it’s a matter of whether can they run the table and capitalize on it. Considering the depth of the MAC, it’s unlikely, but you never know.
Boise State did itself a lot of favors by only losing to Oregon by three points at the buzzer, and if the Ducks end up a top-10 team, it could work in the Broncos’ favor with the committee. The Broncos can’t have another loss, though.
Liberty almost blew it against New Mexico State but survived on a final last-second drive. The Flames still should be favored in every game they play, but even if they finish undefeated, they won't have any marquee wins on their résumé.
Pressure is on Memphis to finish off a wounded Florida State team this week, but it also faces UTSA, South Florida and Tulane. Coming away unscathed would be a remarkable feat.
Toledo plays Mississippi State this week and while it’s unlikely the Rockets win that game, you can’t count it out. If the Rockets take down the Bulldogs, it would strengthen their case if they can win the MAC.
App State got its teeth kicked in by Clemson, so Coastal Carolina may be the best chance the Sun Belt has at getting a representative into the CFP.
Man, what happened
Notre Dame?
Maybe the Fighting Irish got the ’ol playoff pursuit jinx after we glossed about them at-length last week. In any case, they’ll have to win out to have a likely chance of making the CFP now that they have a Group of Five loss at home on their résumé. With no conference championship to win, they’ll be at the mercy of the CFP selection committee for an at-large berth and will have to prove the Northern Illinois loss was a fluke.
