Playoff Pursuit: Big Ten Has Four of Top Five Teams in CFP Rankings, Tennessee vs. Georgia Has Monumental Stakes in SEC Title Race

The College Football Playoff Committee has officially released its second batch of rankings ahead of the inaugural 12-team CFP.

As expected, nothing changed on Ohio State’s end, as the Buckeyes are in an outstanding position to make the College Football Playoff, remaining at No. 2 in the latest rankings.

Per usual, at the end of the article, we’ll make our own guess at what the playoff could look like. For now, here’s what it would look like if we went off the CFP rankings.

The updated CFP bracket projection has arrived

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— ESPN (@espn) November 13, 2024

Before we get to our projections, here’s a conference-by-conference breakdown of who could be in contention for a CFP spot. In case you need a reminder, the 12-team CFP format is five conference champions (including one Group of Five team) and seven at-large selections.

Big Ten

Oregon (10-0 overall, 7-0 Big Ten, No. 1 in CFP poll)

Remaining schedule: at Wisconsin (NR), vs. Washington (NR)

Breakdown: Oregon is basically guaranteed to be in the playoff at this point barring a stunning collapse, and will likely await either Indiana or Ohio State in Indianapolis for the Big Ten championship.

Ohio State (8-1, 5-1, No. 2)

Remaining schedule: at Northwestern (NR), vs. Indiana (No. 5), vs. Michigan (NR)

Breakdown: Ohio State plays a dreadful Northwestern team in an iconic baseball stadium this week then is tasked with taking down another top-five opponent in Indiana. It’s amusing that the Buckeyes’ biggest obstacle to reaching Indianapolis for a rematch with Oregon is Indiana, not Michigan.

Penn State (8-1, 5-1, No. 4)

Remaining schedule: at Purdue (NR), at Minnesota (NR), vs. Maryland (NR)

Breakdown: Penn State essentially gets a bye week on Saturday (sorry Purdue) then plays arguably its toughest remaining matchup against Minnesota in two weeks. If the Nittany Lions win out as expected, they should get a home game in the first round.

Indiana (10-0 overall, 7-0 Big Ten, No. 5)

Remaining schedule: at Ohio State (No. 2), vs. Purdue (NR)

Breakdown: Indiana has clinched double-digit wins in a season for the first time in program history. It’s remarkable what Curt Cignetti has done in his first year with the program and now he has the Hoosiers on the verge of their first-ever playoff appearance. It would probably behoove them to ensure their game against OSU in two weeks is close, because leaving it in the hands of the CFP committee with the top half of the SEC all bunched together could be dangerous.

SEC

Texas (8-1, 4-1 SEC, No. 3 in CFP poll)

Remaining schedule: at Arkansas (NR), vs. Kentucky (NR), at Texas A&M (No. 15)

Breakdown: I don’t want to say beating Arkansas is a gimme for Texas considering what happened to Tennessee, but this is tilting toward an in-state showdown the last week of the regular season to decide whether or not the Longhorns go to the SEC title game. Either way, they should safely be in the playoffs barring multiple losses.

Tennessee (8-1, 5-1, No. 7)

Remaining schedule: at Georgia (No. 12), vs. UTEP (NR), at Vanderbilt (NR)

Breakdown: Tennessee has a massive opportunity to both knock Georgia out of the playoffs and come close to securing an SEC title game spot if it can take down the Bulldogs on the road and beat Vanderbilt to close out the year. Easier said than done, especially with a banged-up quarterback and running back, but this is a monumental week for the Volunteers.

Ole Miss (8-2, 3-2, No. 11)

Remaining schedule: at Florida (NR), vs. Mississippi State (NR)

Breakdown: Ole Miss’ win against Georgia may have just secured the Rebels a playoff spot, especially considering Florida and a hapless Mississippi State team are the only obstacles standing in its way.

Alabama (7-2, 4-2, No. 10)

Remaining schedule: vs. Mercer (NR), at Oklahoma (NR), vs. Auburn (NR)

Breakdown: Alabama demolished LSU and thus will probably meet little resistance toward earning a playoff spot going forward.

Georgia (7-2 overall, 5-2, No. 12)

Remaining schedule: vs. Tennessee (No. 7), vs. UMass (NR), vs. Georgia Tech (NR)

Breakdown: The Bulldogs continued to look shaky and played as poorly as they have all season in their defeat in Oxford. Georgia is playing for its playoff life against Tennessee on Saturday, but if it wins that contest, it should get at least an at-large berth in the field.

Texas A&M (7-2, 5-1, No. 15)

Remaining schedule: vs. New Mexico State (NR), at Auburn (NR), vs. Texas (No. 3)

Breakdown: Similar to Texas, the Aggies’ season is coming down to the final week against their in-state rival. Unlike the Longhorns, though, Texas A&M’s overall playoff hopes are on the line in that game, not just an SEC title game appearance.

ACC

Miami (9-1 overall, 5-1 ACC, No. 9 in CFP poll)

Remaining schedule: vs. Wake Forest (NR), at Syracuse (NR)

Breakdown: Miami had its first setback of the season, falling to Georgia Tech last week. Fortunately for the Hurricanes, Pittsburgh also lost, so Miami still controls its own destiny in the conference race. If Miami wins against both Wake Forest and Syracuse, it will have a chance to play for the league title. It’ll likely need it, considering the ACC is trending toward being a one-bid league.

SMU (8-1, 5-0, No. 14)

Remaining schedule: vs. Boston College (NR), at Virginia (NR), vs. Cal (NR)

Breakdown: SMU is favored in all three of its remaining games and has a clear path to the ACC title game. From there, it’ll have to beat Miami or Clemson to make the CFP.

Clemson (7-2, 6-1, No. 20)

Remaining schedule: at Pittsburgh (NR), vs. Citadel (NR), vs. South Carolina (No. 21)

Breakdown: Clemson’s only hope of getting a playoff berth is winning the ACC title game, which means it’ll need either SMU or Miami to slip up at least once to get back into the conference championship race.

Big 12

BYU (9-0 overall, 6-0 Big 12, No. 6 in CFP poll)

Remaining schedule: vs. Kansas (NR), at Arizona State (NR), vs. Houston (NR)

Breakdown: These guys just keep finding ways to win, don’t they? It remains to be seen if they’ll make it through the regular season unscathed, but they can afford one slip-up and still make the Big 12 title game. Considering the Big 12 is essentially a one-bid league contingent on winning the conference anyway, the Cougars have to feel good about their position down the stretch.

Colorado (7-2, 5-1, No. 17)

Remaining schedule: vs. Utah (NR), at Kansas (NR), vs. Oklahoma State (NR)

Breakdown: If Colorado loses any of its three games remaining down the stretch, the league gets very messy as it sorts out a bunch of tiebreakers for the presumed second spot for the Big 12 title game. Should that happen, we’ll expand that board here. But until that time, the Buffs are rolling and control their own destiny to make a conference championship appearance. Love it or hate it, I maintain Colorado is the highest-ceiling team in this conference because of the two first-round picks it has on its roster.

Group of Five

Boise State (8-1 overall, 5-0 Mountain West, No. 13 in CFP poll)

Remaining schedule: at San Jose State (NR), at Wyoming (NR), vs. Oregon State (NR)

Breakdown: Not Boise State’s greatest showing against Nevada last week, but at this point, just keep racking up wins and the rest will take care of itself.

Army (9-0 overall, 7-0 AAC, No. 24 in CFP poll)

Remaining schedule: at Notre Dame (No. 8), vs. UTSA (NR), Navy (will be after the CFP field is set so will not count toward the selection process)

Breakdown: Army continues to be the only Group of Five team that can challenge Boise State for the bid if the Broncos win out. It has two weeks to prepare for a huge neutral site game against Notre Dame that will make or break its playoff chances.

Independent

Notre Dame (8-1 overall, No. 8 in CFP Poll)

Remaining schedule: vs. Virginia (NR), vs. Army (No. 24), at USC (NR)

Breakdown: We say the same thing every week, but it doesn’t make it any less true. The Fighting Irish need to win out and they’ll likely get into the CFP. Lose once, and they’re toast.